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Economy

Dollar shines, euro droops as Omicron spreads while Fed hawks circle

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The U.S. dollar hovered near the highest since July of last year against major peers on Monday after a Federal Reserve official signaled a first pandemic-era interest rate hike could come as early as March.

The euro sank with the British pound after the Netherlands went into lockdown on Sunday and Britain’s health minister declined to rule out the chance of further restrictions before Christmas amid the rapid spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against six major peers, stood at 96.629, not far from the peak at 96.938 reached last month.

The World Health Organization said on Saturday that the number of Omicron cases is doubling in 1.5 to 3 days in areas of the world with community transmission, but noted that much remains unknown about the variant, including the severity of the illness it causes.

On Friday, Fed Governor Chris Waller said an interest rate increase will likely be warranted “shortly after” the bank ends its bond purchases in March.

“Waller gave the (dollar index) a tailwind on Friday,” which is now eyeing a new high, but “positioning is skewed long in USDs, so the prospect of position squaring into year-end is elevated,” Chris Weston, head of research at brokerage Pepperstone in Melbourne, wrote in a client note.

“While central bank actions are the real issue, headlines on Omicron could be seen as the smoking gun for position squaring.”

The greenback, which tends to attract demand as a safe haven, touched its highest since Dec. 15 against the euro, sterling and the risk-sensitive Australian dollar.

The dollar slipped though against fellow haven currency the yen, but still near the middle of the trading range of the past three weeks.

Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields, to which the dollar-yen pair are often closely correlated, languished near a two-week low reached Friday.

Earlier on Friday, New York Fed president John Williams told CNBC that the Fed will gain “optionality” to raise rates in 2022 by ending bond purchases by March.

Money markets price about 50-50 odds of a quarter point hike by March.

========================================================

Currency bid prices at 0109 GMT

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Previous Change

Session

Euro/Dollar

$1.1245 $1.1236 +0.10% -7.94% +1.1255 +1.1235

 

Dollar/Yen

113.5950 113.7400 -0.12% +9.98% +113.6500 +113.5400

 

Euro/Yen

127.75 127.77 -0.02% +0.65% +127.8200 +127.6200

 

Dollar/Swiss

0.9238 0.9241 -0.06% +4.39% +0.9244 +0.9234

 

Sterling/Dollar

1.3232 1.3233 +0.02% -3.13% +1.3243 +1.3225

 

Dollar/Canadian

1.2891 1.2894 -0.01% +1.25% +1.2901 +1.2886

 

Aussie/Dollar

0.7121 0.7127 -0.06% -7.41% +0.7134 +0.7109

 

NZ

Dollar/Dollar 0.6731 0.6737 -0.07% -6.25% +0.6750 +0.6726

 

 

All spots

Tokyo spots

Europe spots

Volatilities

Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ

 

(Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Sam Holmes)

Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales fell 1.3% to $69.4B in August

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.

The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.

The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.

Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.

Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.

Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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