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Don Martin’s prediction on whether Trudeau will stick around for another election

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After decades of mostly wrong personal predictions for the year ahead, it’s time to consult the best brains in Canadian politics for their view of Major Events 2023.

There’s a handful of former senior staffers, a former party leader, a top business voice and a veteran parliamentary observer in this Very Smart People mix, all granted anonymity so they can deliver fearless crystal-ball insights to improve on my usual never-came-to-pass list.

  • The respected business leader sees a psychological recession coming in 2023 driven by the fact that “if everybody says there’s going to be a recession, there’s a recession. The adjustments we make to prepare for it trigger what we’re hoping to avoid.”

The government’s key budget focus next year will be to compete against the U.S. President Joe Biden’s frenzy of spending aimed at luring investment back to America.

“They’re creating a giant vacuuming sound for Canadian investment and talent.”

  • A former party leader studying the Alberta landscape says that province’s brand-new premier should already prepare for a job change. “Danielle Smith won’t survive and may even exit before the election (scheduled for May),” they predicted.

There’s a caveat however in that Smith has surrounded herself with decent staff, which could save her from herself.

  • A widely respected parliamentary watcher with four decades on the Hill agreed, saying the government needs to deliver a match-the-money budget to keep industry and investment in this country. “If we don’t get in front of this train, we’ll be screwed.”

He also predicted the NDP, weary of not seeing a popularity payoff from propping up the government, will cancel the deal. And Trudeau will announce he’s not seeking re-election in late fall.

  • A former top Liberal staffer sees a ‘substantive cabinet shuffle this winter” with Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino getting the boot for his uneven performance, particularly surrounding the trucker convoy.

She sees recent byelection winner and former Ontario finance minister Charles Sousa getting the nod for a senior cabinet job, although another white male minister from Toronto is seen as problematic.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stays on, but there’s no election next year even though sitting Liberal MPs have been told to declare themselves standing for re-election by March 1.

  • A politically neutral veteran strategist sees a constitutional “fracas” between Ottawa and “attention-seeking premiers preying on malcontents” erupting on the horizon while raging epidemics in childrens’ hospitals will force changes in the health care system.

He sees a spring 2023 election, particularly if the NDP’s popularity rises to seat-gaining levels, because the Conservatives are itching to take on Trudeau before he opts to retire.

  • A long-time Conservative insider says Alberta Premier Danielle Smith will make a few more mind-blowing missteps, which gets her MLAs grumbling she’s ‘not ready for prime time”.

But, he notes in an interesting twist, should Smith rise from the grave and win the May election, watch for Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley to quit and be on standby as frontrunner to replace federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh should he decide fatherhood is more fun than leadership.

  • A retired staffer under federal and provincial ministers predicts Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre will have an uncharacteristically calm year as he aims to become a “younger, perhaps more personally popular and fluently bilingual Stephen Harper.”

He sees little change in Trudeau’s top-down arrogant style of leadership because the PMO believes it’s on track to win again under the status quo.

As for his safest prediction, my source says Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland will quit to become secretary general of NATO next fall, the better to cleanse herself of widespread Trudeau loathing before a Liberal leadership bid in the future.

  • And if you switch to not-as-smart prognosticators, specifically me, look for Trudeau to shuffle ministers linked to the trucker convoy ahead of a critical February report by inquiry Commissioner Paul Rouleau.

I agree Chrystia Freeland will land the top NATO gig and expect Trudeau will take his walk in the snow toward retirement in early 2024. Which, given by usual batting average, means Trudeau will stick around for another election with Freeland by his side and refrain from any cabinet changes ahead of a favourable Rouleau report.

That’s the bottom line.

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‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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