adplus-dvertising
Connect with us

Politics

Donald Trump broke politics

Published

 on

Heading into Election Day, every shred of available evidence suggested that Trump was likely to lose, and lose convincingly, to former Vice President Joe Biden. The incumbent trailed by high single-digits in national polling. He was behind in polling averages in virtually every swing state. He was being drastically outspent on television in the vast majority of battlegrounds. Professional campaign handicappers were unanimous: This election was likely to border on landslide territory for Biden.
And yet, that’s not what happened. While you’d almost certainly rather be Biden than Trump at this point when you look at where votes remain to be counted in critical swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, it’s clear that the incumbent, if he loses, will not be swept out of office in a clear rebuke of his first four years in office.
Trump’s overperformance of his poll numbers almost everywhere — not to mention the likelihood that Republicans maintain control of the Senate and gain seats in the House (although fall short of winning the majority) — are simply not explainable by the available polling data going into the election. They’re just not.
And this isn’t the first time we’ve seen this happen. In 2016, most polling — not to mention the professional handicapping types — suggested that Hillary Clinton was on her way to a comfortable, if not crushing, victory. That obviously didn’t happen.
One miss is a potential anomaly, a bug in the matrix. Two straight presidential elections in which Trump overperformed pre-election polls and the expectations of the professional political class — and his party did the same down-ballot — proves that there are systemic issue with the way we poll and cover elections.
What are the problems?
Polling seems to have proven inadequate in accurately reflecting the Trump coalition. Whether that is a function of the so-called “shy Trump voter” phenomenon or some other more technical issue about how samples are put together — and how well they reflect the actual political realities in the country — remains to be seen. But it’s extremely clear that political polling has some very real issues that need to be addressed.
Aside from polling, it’s clear that other traditional metrics used by political prognosticators are also failing (or have already failed). Money raised and spent — particularly on TV ads — in a presidential race may no longer be an indicator of much of anything, for example. Biden drastically outspent Trump (just as Clinton drastically outspent Trump in 2016) and yet the race in both instances was far tighter than the spending numbers would have led you to believe.
It’s possible then that, given the wall-to-wall coverage of the presidential candidates by cable TV and other media outlets and the massive fundraising by both parties, money differentials are simply not predictive of overall outcomes.
Then there is the reliance of political reporters (and politicians, particularly on the Democratic side) on Twitter as both a news source and opinion setter is deeply misguided. While every reporter is quick to tell you how they know Twitter isn’t real life, there’s absolutely no question that they also allow the views expressed on Twitter, which usually lean liberal, and the desire for likes and retweets from the major players on Twitter to seep into their understanding of both the presidential race and the country more broadly.
And that affects the assumptions that are made about the country — and the frames through which the race is covered.
There are obviously other issues, too. What Trump’s two bids for president have shown — again, whether or not he wins a second term when all the votes are counted in the 2020 race — is that there are fundamental flaws in the way presidential elections (at least those involving Trump!) are reported on and analyzed.
Even if Trump loses to Biden today or in the coming days, those problems won’t suddenly disappear.

Source: – CNN

Source link

Politics

Youri Chassin quits CAQ to sit as Independent, second member to leave this month

Published

 on

 

Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.

He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.

In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.

Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.

He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.

Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.

He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Politics

‘I’m not going to listen to you’: Singh responds to Poilievre’s vote challenge

Published

 on

 

MONTREAL – NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says he will not be taking advice from Pierre Poilievre after the Conservative leader challenged him to bring down government.

“I say directly to Pierre Poilievre: I’m not going to listen to you,” said Singh on Wednesday, accusing Poilievre of wanting to take away dental-care coverage from Canadians, among other things.

“I’m not going to listen to your advice. You want to destroy people’s lives, I want to build up a brighter future.”

Earlier in the day, Poilievre challenged Singh to commit to voting non-confidence in the government, saying his party will force a vote in the House of Commons “at the earliest possibly opportunity.”

“I’m asking Jagmeet Singh and the NDP to commit unequivocally before Monday’s byelections: will they vote non-confidence to bring down the costly coalition and trigger a carbon tax election, or will Jagmeet Singh sell out Canadians again?” Poilievre said.

“It’s put up or shut up time for the NDP.”

While Singh rejected the idea he would ever listen to Poilievre, he did not say how the NDP would vote on a non-confidence motion.

“I’ve said on any vote, we’re going to look at the vote and we’ll make our decision. I’m not going to say our decision ahead of time,” he said.

Singh’s top adviser said on Tuesday the NDP leader is not particularly eager to trigger an election, even as the Conservatives challenge him to do just that.

Anne McGrath, Singh’s principal secretary, says there will be more volatility in Parliament and the odds of an early election have risen.

“I don’t think he is anxious to launch one, or chomping at the bit to have one, but it can happen,” she said in an interview.

New Democrat MPs are in a second day of meetings in Montreal as they nail down a plan for how to navigate the minority Parliament this fall.

The caucus retreat comes one week after Singh announced the party has left the supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing Liberals.

It’s also taking place in the very city where New Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat on Monday, when voters go to the polls in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. A second byelection is being held that day in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona, where the NDP is hoping to hold onto a seat the Conservatives are also vying for.

While New Democrats are seeking to distance themselves from the Liberals, they don’t appear ready to trigger a general election.

Singh signalled on Tuesday that he will have more to say Wednesday about the party’s strategy for the upcoming sitting.

He is hoping to convince Canadians that his party can defeat the federal Conservatives, who have been riding high in the polls over the last year.

Singh has attacked Poilievre as someone who would bring back Harper-style cuts to programs that Canadians rely on, including the national dental-care program that was part of the supply-and-confidence agreement.

The Canadian Press has asked Poilievre’s office whether the Conservative leader intends to keep the program in place, if he forms government after the next election.

With the return of Parliament just days away, the NDP is also keeping in mind how other parties will look to capitalize on the new makeup of the House of Commons.

The Bloc Québécois has already indicated that it’s written up a list of demands for the Liberals in exchange for support on votes.

The next federal election must take place by October 2025 at the latest.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Politics

Social media comments blocked: Montreal mayor says she won’t accept vulgar slurs

Published

 on

 

Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante is defending her decision to turn off comments on her social media accounts — with an announcement on social media.

She posted screenshots to X this morning of vulgar names she’s been called on the platform, and says comments on her posts for months have been dominated by insults, to the point that she decided to block them.

Montreal’s Opposition leader and the Canadian Civil Liberties Association have criticized Plante for limiting freedom of expression by restricting comments on her X and Instagram accounts.

They say elected officials who use social media should be willing to hear from constituents on those platforms.

However, Plante says some people may believe there is a fundamental right to call someone offensive names and to normalize violence online, but she disagrees.

Her statement on X is closed to comments.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending