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Down 80%, Is Carnival Stock a Once-in-a-Generation Investment Opportunity?

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In the five years leading up to its all-time high in January 2018, Carnival (NYSE: CCL) was a winning investment. Its shares jumped 86% during that time.

It’s been a different story since then, though. This cruise stock currently sits 80% below its peak price. That’s even after shares soared 76% since the start of 2023 (as of April 18).

Does this setup on the dip make Carnival a once-in-a-generation investment opportunity? Here’s what investors need to know.

Smooth sailing

Carnival’s business is giving its shareholders plenty of reasons to be optimistic. In fiscal 2023, which ended Nov. 30, the company reported revenue of $21.6 billion, a record figure that was up 77% year over year. This number exceeded the previous record, which came in fiscal 2019.

The momentum carried over into the first quarter of 2024. During that 12-week stretch, the company hit a first-quarter record for sales. Key to this strong momentum is, without a surprise, robust demand from consumers.

“This has been a fantastic start to the year. We delivered another strong quarter that outperformed guidance on every measure, while concluding a monumental wave season that achieved all-time high booking volumes at considerably higher prices,” CEO Josh Weinstein highlighted in the latest earnings press release.

Warren Buffett, who many consider the greatest investor ever, once said that he believes the mark of a wonderful business is one that can raise prices with minimal pushback from customers. Carnival is currently demonstrating this characteristic.

It will be interesting to see if the recent trends are simply a one-hit wonder or a more sustainable development. The bulls are definitely hoping it’s the latter.

But this is a business that is recovering nicely from the worst days of the pandemic. At one point, Carnival was forced to halt its operations temporarily to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Revenue took a huge hit, dropping 91% between fiscal 2019 and fiscal 2021.

Now that the company has bounced back and looks to be on solid footing, I’m sure it’s starting to catch the attention of investors. Shares still trade at a reasonable forward P/E of 14.

Rough waters

It’s easy to say this with the benefit of hindsight, but I don’t necessarily think it’s shocking to see Carnival putting up such strong numbers right now. Unless you were convinced that demand for cruise travel would permanently fall off a cliff, I bet you expected that this business would experience a reversion to the mean.

For what it’s worth, Wall Street believes the good times won’t last very long. Analysts see annual revenue gains shrinking going forward, with fiscal 2026 sales rising by just 1.9% compared to the prior year.

It’s easy for investors to become short-sighted and focus too much on financial results from one year or one quarter. But it’s best to think about the bigger picture, turning our attention to the long term.

To be clear, I still believe Carnival is an extremely risky business to own. As of Feb. 29, the company had a massive debt load of $31 billion. A lot of this capital was raised to buy the company time throughout the pandemic. Management has used cash to pay down the principal. But that’s a huge burden that adds tremendous financial risk should there be economic weakness.

Speaking of the economy, demand for cruise trips demonstrates cyclicality, as it’s a discretionary purchase. I’m concerned about how Carnival will fare in a potential recessionary scenario, which could happen unpredictably.

It might be smooth sailing for Carnival right now, but there are always rough waters to worry about. I don’t believe this is a once-in-a-generation investment opportunity.

Should you invest $1,000 in Carnival Corp. right now?

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Neil Patel and his clients have no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Carnival Corp. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Down 80%, Is Carnival Stock a Once-in-a-Generation Investment Opportunity? was originally published by The Motley Fool

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Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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