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Earth’s ice sheets tracking worst-case climate scenarios – DAWN.com

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PARIS: The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, which hold enough frozen water to lift oceans 65 metres, are tracking the UN’s worst-case scenarios for sea level rise, researchers have said, highlighting flaws in current climate change models.

Mass loss caused by melt-water and crumbling ice from 2007 to 2017 aligned with the most extreme forecasts from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), which see the two ice sheets adding up to 40 centimetres (nearly 16 inches) to global oceans by 2100, they reported on Monday in Nature Climate Change.

Such an increase would have a devastating impact worldwide, increasing the destructive power of storm surges and exposing coastal regions home to hundreds of millions of people to repeated and severe flooding.

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That is nearly three times more than mid-range projections from the IPCC’s last major Assessment Report in 2014, which predicted a 70 centimetre rise in sea level from all sources, including mountain glaciers and the expansion of ocean water as it warms.

Despite this clear mismatch between the observed reality of accelerating ice sheet disintegration and the models tracking those trends, a special IPCC report last year on the planet’s frozen regions maintained the same end-of-century projections for Greenland, and allowed for only a small increase from Antarctica under the highest greenhouse gas emissions scenario.

“We need to come up with a new worst-case scenario for the ice sheets because they are already melting at a rate in line with our current one,” lead author Thomas Slater, a researcher at the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling at the University of Leeds, said.

“Sea level projections are critical in helping governments plan climate policy, mitigation and adaptation strategies.

“If we underestimate future sea level rise, then these measures may be inadequate and leave coastal communities vulnerable.” Ice sheet losses at the upper end of the IPCC forecasts would by itself expose some 50 million people to annual coastal flooding worldwide by mid-century, according to research published last year.

Several factors explain why the climate models underlying UN projections for sea level might have given short shrift to ice sheets, according to the new analysis.

Ice sheet models do well in describing the long-term impact of gradual global warming, which has seen temperatures at the poles rise far more quickly than for the planet as a whole.

But they have failed to account for short-term fluctuations in weather patterns that are, themselves, deeply influenced by climate change.

“For Greenland, much of the ice loss is now being driven by surface melt events during hot summers — processes not captured in the AR5 simulations,” said Slater, referring to the 2014 IPCC report, the fifth since 1992.

“We need to understand these better to improve our sea level rise predictions.” Until the turn of the 21st century, the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets generally accumulated as much mass as they shed. Runoff, in other words, was compensated by fresh snowfall.

Published in Dawn, September 2nd, 2020

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Giant prehistoric salmon had tusk-like teeth for defence, building nests

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The artwork and publicity materials showcasing a giant salmon that lived five million years ago were ready to go to promote a new exhibit, when the discovery of two fossilized skulls immediately changed what researchers knew about the fish.

Initial fossil discoveries of the 2.7-metre-long salmon in Oregon in the 1970s were incomplete and had led researchers to mistakenly suggest the fish had fang-like teeth.

It was dubbed the “sabre-toothed salmon” and became a kind of mascot for the Museum of Natural and Cultural History at the University of Oregon, says researcher Edward Davis.

But then came discovery of two skulls in 2014.

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Davis, a member of the team that found the skulls, says it wasn’t until they got back to the lab that he realized the significance of the discovery that has led to the renaming of the fish in a new, peer-reviewed study.

“There were these two skulls staring at me with sideways teeth,” says Davis, an associate professor in the department of earth sciences at the university.

In that position, the tusk-like teeth could not have been used for biting, he says.

“That was definitely a surprising moment,” says Davis, who serves as director of the Condon Fossil Collection at the university’s Museum of Natural and Cultural History.

“I realized that all of the artwork and all of the publicity materials and bumper stickers and buttons and T-shirts we had just made two months prior, for the new exhibit, were all out of date,” he says with a laugh.

Davis is co-author of the new study in the journal PLOS One, which renames the giant fish the “spike-toothed salmon.”

It says the salmon used the tusk-like spikes for building nests to spawn, and as defence mechanisms against predators and other salmon.

The salmon lived about five million years ago at a time when Earth was transitioning from warmer to relatively cooler conditions, Davis says.

It’s hard to know exactly why the relatives of today’s sockeye went extinct, but Davis says the cooler conditions would have affected the productivity of the Pacific Ocean and the amount of rain feeding rivers that served as their spawning areas.

Another co-author, Brian Sidlauskas, says a fish the size of the spike-toothed salmon must have been targeted by predators such as killer whales or sharks.

“I like to think … it’s almost like a sledgehammer, these salmon swinging their head back and forth in order to fend off things that might want to feast on them,” he says.

Sidlauskas says analysis by the lead author of the paper, Kerin Claeson, found both male and female salmon had the “multi-functional” spike-tooth feature.

“That’s part of our reason for hypothesizing that this tooth is multi-functional … It could easily be for digging out nests,” he says.

“Think about how big the (nest) would have to be for an animal of this size, and then carving it out in what’s probably pretty shallow water; and so having an extra digging tool attached to your head could be really useful.”

Sidlauskas says the giant salmon help researchers understand the boundaries of what’s possible with the evolution of salmon, but they also capture the human imagination and a sense of wonder about what’s possible on Earth.

“I think it helps us value a little more what we do still have, or I hope that it does. That animal is no longer with us, but it is a product of the same biosphere that sustains us.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 24, 2024.

Brenna Owen, The Canadian Press

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Giant prehistoric salmon had tusk-like spikes used for defence, building nests: study

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A new paper says a giant salmon that lived five million years ago in the coastal waters of the Pacific Northwest used tusk-like spikes as defense mechanisms and for building nests to spawn.

The initial fossil discoveries of the 2.7-metre-long salmon in Oregon in the 1970s were incomplete and led researchers to suggest the fish had fang-like teeth.

The now-extinct fish was dubbed the “saber-tooth salmon,” but the study published in the peer-reviewed journal PLOS One today renames it the “spike-toothed salmon” and says both males and females possessed the “multifunctional” feature.

Study co-author Edward Davis says the revelation about the tusk-like teeth came after the discovery of fossilized skulls at a site in Oregon in 2014.

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Davis, an associate professor in the department of earth sciences at the University of Oregon, says he was surprised to see the skulls had “sideways teeth.”

Contrary to the belief since the 1970s, he says the teeth couldn’t have been used for any kind of biting.

“That was definitely a surprising moment,” Davis says of the fossil discovery in 2014. “I realized that all of the artwork and all of the publicity materials … we had just made two months prior, for the new exhibit, were all out of date.”

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SpaceX sends 23 Starlink satellites into low-Earth orbit

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April 23 (UPI) — SpaceX launched 23 Starlink satellites into low-Earth orbit Tuesday evening from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida.

Liftoff occurred at 6:17 EDT with a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket sending the payload of 23 Starlink satellites into orbit.

The Falcon 9 rocket’s first-stage booster landed on an autonomous drone ship in the Atlantic Ocean after separating from the rocket’s second stage and its payload.

The entire mission was scheduled to take about an hour and 5 minutes to complete from launch to satellite deployment.

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The mission was the ninth flight for the first-stage booster that previously completed five Starlink satellite-deployment missions and three other missions.

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