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Economy

Economy grew 0.4% in August, StatsCan says – Investment Executive

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Weighing down the economy in August was the country’s agriculture sector, which posted its second straight monthly decline that Statistics Canada notes were the largest back-to-back monthly contractions since it began collecting comparable data in 1997.

The agency is providing a preliminary estimate for September that suggests real gross domestic product was essentially unchanged for the month.

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Statistics Canada says gains in several sectors were more than offset by a significant drop in manufacturing and decline in retail trade, hinting at the supply-chain bottlenecks that have weighed on growth.

The estimate for September suggests the economy grew at an annual rate of 1.9% in the third quarter, but that figure could change once the agency finalizes figures next month.

Statistics Canada says total economic activity in August was about 1% below pre-pandemic levels recorded in February 2020, a gap that didn’t change in September.

TD Bank senior economist Sri Thanabalasingam says closing that remaining gap could be challenging because global supply-chain disruptions and labour market imbalances could crimp output across sectors for months to come.

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada revised down its projection for growth in the third quarter of the year to 5.5% from an annualized rate of 7.3% in its previous forecast.

“With supply constraints expected to continue to weigh on the economy through the fourth quarter, output may fall well short of the Bank of Canada’s projection,” Thanabalasingam writes in a note.

“Indeed, with today’s release, the bank may need to, once again, adjust its narrative on the Canadian economy.’

Governor Tiff Macklem warned high inflation rates are likely to go higher as supply-chain issues worsen in the coming weeks. He added the bottlenecks should eventually work themselves out.

CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld said Friday the impact from bottlenecks should lessen over 2022 if the source of problems, often Covid-19 outbreaks abroad, heals.

On Friday, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland was in Rome to meet with her G20 counterparts where she planned to push countries to better share vaccines, which could reduce global outbreaks weighing on trade.

Freeland has previously said the government is keeping an eye on Canadian ports for signs of strain, but the Opposition Conservatives on Friday called on the government to do more to unclog supply chains and help grow the domestic economy.

“As global economies continue to emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic, it has never been more critical to have a plan to tackle the significant economic challenges on the horizon,” Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole said in a statement.

O’Toole in a letter to Trudeau last week called on the government to work with the private sector and White House to shore up the North American supply chain given global challenges.

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Japanese government maintains view that economy is in moderate recovery – ForexLive

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Can falling interest rates improve fairness in the economy? – The Globe and Mail

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The ‘poor borrower’ narrative rules in media coverage of the Bank of Canada and high interest rates, and that’s appropriate.

A lot of people have been financially slammed by the rate hikes of the past couple of years, which have made it much more expensive to carry a mortgage, lines of credit and other borrowing. The latest from the Bank of Canada suggests rate cuts will come as soon as this summer, which on the whole would be a welcome development. It’s not just borrowers who need relief – the boarder economy has slowed to a crawl because of high borrowing costs.

But high rates are also a big win for some people. Specifically, those who have little or no debt and who have a significant amount of money sitting in savings products and guaranteed investment certificates. The country’s most well-off people, in other words.

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Lower rates will mean diminished returns for savers and less interest paid by borrowers. It’s a stretch to say lower rates will improve financial inequality, but they do add a little more fairness to our financial system.

Wealth inequality is often presented as the chasm between well-off people able to pay for houses, vehicles, trips and high-end restaurant meals and those who are driving record use of food banks and living in tent cities. High interest rates and inflation have given us more nuance in wealth inequality. People fortunate enough to have bought houses in recent years are staggering as they try to manage mortgage payments that have risen by hundreds of dollars a month. You can see their struggles in rising numbers of late payments and debt defaults.

Rates are expected to fall in a measured, gradual way, which means their impact on financial inequality won’t be an instant gamechanger. But if the Bank of Canada cuts 0.25 of a percentage point off the overnight rate in June and again in July, many borrowers will start noticing how much less interest they’re paying, and savers will find themselves earning less.


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Rob’s personal finance reading list

Snowballs and avalanches

A look at two strategies for paying off debt – the debt avalanche and the debt snowball. I’ll go with the avalanche.

How not to ruin your kitchen countertop

Anyone who has renovated a kitchen lately knows how expensive stone countertops can be. Look after yours by protecting it from a few common kitchen items.

What you need to know about stock market corrections

A helpful explanation of stock market corrections. It seems an opportune time to look at corrections, given how volatile stocks have been lately. Like scouts, investors should always be prepared.

Put that snack back

Food inflation requires more careful grocery shopping. Here’s a roundup of food products – cookies, snacks, ice cream – that don’t taste as good as they used to. Food companies have always adjusted their recipes from time to time. Is this happening more because of inflation’s impact on raw material prices? A U.S. list – most products are available are familiar to Canadians, too.


Ask Rob

Q: I have Tangerine children’s accounts for my kids. Can you suggest a better alternative?

A: The rate on the Tangerine children’s account is 0.8 per cent, which actually compares well to the big banks and their comparable accounts. For kids aged 13 and up, check out something new called the JA Money Card.

Do you have a question for me? Send it my way. Sorry I can’t answer every one personally. Questions and answers are edited for length and clarity.


Tools and guides

A comprehensive guide on how to build a good credit score.


In the social sphere

Social Media: An offbeat way of fighting high food costs

Watch: Is now the hardest time ever to buy a home?

Money-Free Zone: Singer-songwriter Maggie Rogers has a new album called Don’t Forget Me and it’s generating some buzz because it’s a great listen. Smooth vocals and a laid back countryish vibe that hits a faster pace on one of my favourite cuts, Drunk.


More PF from The Globe

– He keeps ‘a few thousand in crisp new bills’ at home – is that a good idea?

– The pension pivot: Employers recognizing that workers need help with debt as much as retirement

– Her bond ETF is ‘a dud and not promising at all’ – should she sell?

– Despite high fees, Canadians remain perplexingly loyal to mutual funds. Here’s why


More Rob Carrick and money coverage

Subscribe to Stress Test on Apple podcasts or Spotify. For more money stories, follow me on Instagram and Twitter, and join the discussion on my Facebook page. Millennial readers, join our Gen Y Money Facebook group.

Even more coverage from Rob Carrick:

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Economy

LIVE: Freeland joins panel on Indigenous economy – CTV News Montreal

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LIVE: Freeland joins panel on Indigenous economy  CTV News Montreal

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