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Economy hit ‘sharp reversal’ in June. What this means for the Bank of Canada – Global News

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Canada’s economy kept growing in May, but early signs of a long-awaited slowdown started to appear in June, according to Statistics Canada.

The federal agency said Friday that real gross domestic product was up 0.3 per cent in May, with growth in services-producing sectors offsetting declines in goods.

A return to work among striking federal service workers helped lift GDP in May, StatCan said. An easing in supply chain kinks, especially among semiconductors, boosted automotive manufacturing in the month.

Rebounding housing markets in some of Canada’s largest cities drove real estate activity up 7.6 per cent, StatCan said. Construction activity contracted 0.8 per cent, however, amid a slowdown in residential building and renovations.


Click to play video: 'Upsizing buyers drove demand in Canada’s housing market this spring, new report says'

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Upsizing buyers drove demand in Canada’s housing market this spring, new report says


Forest fires in Alberta dragged down growth in the mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction industries in May, according to the agency.

The energy sector was “severely impacted” by forest fires, StatCan said, contracting 2.1 per cent in May — the largest decline in the industry since August 2020.

The month’s GDP figures are down slightly from StatCan’s flash estimates suggesting growth of 0.4 per cent in the month. April’s reading showed the economy was virtually unchanged, while it grew a slight 0.1 per cent in March.

Early readings for June show the economy contracted 0.2 per cent in June, though those figures could be revised.

Those same early estimates from StatCan show economy grew at a rate of 1.0 per cent annualized in the second quarter of the year. In its most recent monetary policy report released in July, the Bank of Canada said it expected growth of 1.5 per cent, revised up from earlier expectations of 1.0 per cent.


Click to play video: 'Bank of Canada raises key interest rate to 5 per cent, highest level in 22 years'

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Bank of Canada raises key interest rate to 5 per cent, highest level in 22 years


What does a slowing economy mean for the Bank of Canada?

The central bank has been working to slow the economy by raising interest rates in an effort to bring inflation to its target of two per cent.

It most recently raised its key rate on July 12 by a quarter of a percentage point to five per cent, the highest it’s been since 2001.

The Bank of Canada has said that future rate decisions, including its next one on Sept. 6, will be dependent on what economic data shows.


Click to play video: 'Raising interest rate to 5 per cent will help relieve inflation: Macklem'

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Raising interest rate to 5 per cent will help relieve inflation: Macklem


“The sharp reversal in June reinforces our view that the Bank of Canada is done with rate hikes,” Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group, said in a note on Friday. “Momentum is clearly slowing and the risks to the downside are growing.”

TD Bank economist Marc Ercolao said in a note that with the public sector strike and wildfire impacts, Canada’s economy has been hit by a “series of transitory shocks” that make the data difficult to interpret.

While he expects one-time disruptions in the data to continue with the impact of the B.C. port strike and the federal government’s grocery rebate rolling out in July, Ercolao said there’s enough in the latest GDP figures to suggest there was some “slowing momentum” in the economy heading into the summer months.

As such, Ercolao said the Bank of Canada should be satisfied with the progress in slowing the economy to date enough to hold interest rates steady in September.

GDP is not the only metric the central bank will be watching as it plots its next rate decision, however.

CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham said in a note that he believes forthcoming updates on core inflation and next week’s Labour Force Survey for July will be “more important” to the Bank of Canada in gauging whether demand in the economy has cooled sufficiently to leave rates unchanged.

— with files from Reuters, The Canadian Press

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Economy

Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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