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Economy tops Erdogan’s manifesto for Turkish elections

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has launched his re-election campaign with a party pledge to slash inflation to single digits and boost economic growth as he seeks to extend his two decades in power in the May 14 vote.

Erdogan is facing the biggest political challenge since his Justice and Development (AK) Party came to power in 2002. Polls show support sagging in recent years since the Turkish lira has fallen steeply in value and inflation has skyrocketed. Opponents have blamed the president’s economic policies.

Even so, the president repeated his economic mantra that investment, production, exports and an eventual current account surplus would drive up Turkey’s gross domestic product.

“We will bring inflation back down to single digits and definitely save our country from this problem,” he told a crowd at an Ankara stadium on Tuesday.

Erdogan sought aggressive interest rate cuts, which the Central Bank of Turkey carried out, sending inflation to a 24-year peak of more than 85 percent in October before it dipped to near 50 percent in March. The ensuing cost-of-living crisis has gripped Turkish households and squeezed earnings and savings, bottoming out people’s purchasing power.

“We will improve the investment further with a structure based on a free-market economy integrated with the world,” the ruling party’s manifesto said. It aims for annual growth of 5.5 percent from 2024 to 2028 and GDP of $1.5 trillion by the end of 2028. GDP was just over $1 trillion in 2022.

Erdogan said last week that a team was working on strengthening economic policies under the coordination of former Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek, who is well respected by international investors.

Some AK Party members have previously said they wanted Simsek to champion a pivot to more free-market policies after years of unorthodox economic strategies.

However, the manifesto made no direct reference to a return to orthodoxy and said the low-rate policy was the main driver of entrepreneurs investing in the real estate sector and creating jobs.

Kilicdaroglu leads in surveys

In the presidential election next month, Erdogan will be up against the candidate for the main opposition alliance, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, and two other candidates.

In the latest survey from Metropoll, 42.6 percent of respondents said they would vote for Kilicdaroglu and 41.1 percent for Erdogan in first-round voting. The other candidates together received 7.2 percent support.

Support for Erdogan dipped slightly after February’s earthquakes, which killed more than 50,000 people in Turkey, because many voters believed the initial response to the disaster was too slow, according to surveys.

“We will completely heal the wounds caused by the disaster in 11 provinces and their neighboring cities by building a total of 650,000 new houses, 319,000 of which will be delivered in one year,” Erdogan said on Tuesday.

On foreign policy, the incumbent said he would continue normalising relations in the region. Ankara recently took steps to mend relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Syria after years of tension. Erdogan also said he aims to build an “axis of Turkey”.

“We will build the axis of Turkey with a foreign policy where both our country, our region and humanity will find peace and stability, multilateralism, more cooperation, peace, stability and humanitarian diplomacy,” he said.

“We can negotiate with both sides in the Russia-Ukraine war, make concrete progress such as the grain corridor and prisoner exchange, and we can still speak of the possibility of peace,” Erdogan said.

 

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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