In the week ahead, Federal Reserve Chairman
Jerome Powell
will testify on Capitol Hill, while U.S. inflation and retail-sales data will offer insight into consumer prices and spending so far this year.
Monday
The White House is expected to release its budget for fiscal year 2021, offering a preview of President Trump’s fiscal-policy wishlist should he win a second term in November. With deficits projected to exceed $1 trillion a year over the next decade, expect the proposal to feature more of the steep spending cuts proposed in Mr. Trump’s previous three budgets to help close the budget gap. It will also include the White House’s economic projections, including an updated growth forecast for his final year in office.
Tuesday
Federal Chairman Jerome Powell begins two days of federally mandated, semiannual testimony before Congress. Friday’s solid jobs report likely provided reassurance to Fed officials about the state of the U.S. economy. Fed officials at their meeting earlier this month held their benchmark interest rate steady and signaled they will remain in a make-no-moves posture for now. Fed watchers will listen closely to Mr. Powell’s testimony for any updates to the central bank’s outlook.
Thursday
The Labor Department releases the consumer-price index, which measures changes in how much Americans are paying for everyday items such as clothes, gas and food. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast the index rose 0.2% in January from the prior month and 2.5% from the previous year. That would be a slightly higher rise than the 2.3% year-over-year increase in December, despite signs that upward pressures on inflation broadly remain contained.
Friday
The Commerce Department will issue figures on retail sales, which will shed light on whether solid spending at stores, restaurants and online at the end of 2019 continued into the new year. Economists expect to see a 0.3% rise in sales during January compared with the prior month.
Meanwhile, figures to be released by the European Union’s statistics office are expected to show that the bloc’s trade surplus with the U.S. rose to a record high in 2019, a development that could feed trade tensions. President Trump says he wants a new trade deal with the EU that is more favorable to U.S. exporters, and has threatened to impose tariffs on imports from the bloc, including automobiles, in pursuit of that goal.
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