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Real eState
Edmonton is setting up for a strong year in residential real estate – Edmonton Journal
Tighter supply expected to continue to move prices upward despite slowing of sales
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The record for home sales set last year is unlikely to be threatened by housing demand in Edmonton this year, according to the city’s realtors association.
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The Realtors Association of Edmonton recently held its annual forecast, predicting sales will remain strong with an estimated 21,400 sales. Yet activity will be 11 per cent below sales in 2021, which reached a record high of 24,075.
“So much for my hope of breaking last year’s records,” said RAE chair Paul Gravelle at last week’s event.
Single-family homes sales, which made up much of the activity last year, will again drive the market in the Greater Edmonton Area, which includes Sherwood Park, Beaumont, Leduc and other nearby municipalities.
Still, sales for single-family detached homes will see the largest decline, expected to fall by almost 13 per cent from 2021. Duplex sales are forecast to decrease about 10 per cent while apartment sales should see the smallest drop at about seven per cent.
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At the same time, inventory is expected to remain low, with listings falling about four per cent for single-family detached homes, eight per cent for duplexes, and four per cent for condominiums.
In turn, continuing strong demand will lead to price increases over last year. Single-family detached homes’ average price is expected to increase to $472,000, up about three per cent from 2021. Condominium’s average price is forecast to reach $234,000, a rise of about one per cent, and duplexes could hit $362,000, up about three per cent.
Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist with CIBC World Markets, noted at the forecast that COVID-19 will still weigh on the market’s direction especially for the first half of the year.
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“My prediction is by mid- to late 2022 we will see a transition from a pandemic to endemic,” he said.
Demand for home purchases is likely to start to normalize, too, but the rental market could take off, leading to potentially higher rents.
“During COVID, we now know that house price went up much stronger than expected,” he said. “But rent inflation was much more muted.”
To reach comparable levels — relative to home prices — pre-pandemic, rents would have to increase nationally by 37 per cent, he noted.
Helping drive rents will be migration, both international and national.
Tal noted Canada currently has six times the immigration rate per capita of the United State, “and those new immigrants supply the labour market.”
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He added new home completions will also rise, including in Edmonton, in 2022, but these “will not completely solve the issue” of lack of supply.
Another driver will be gifting as part of down payments. He noted Canadians are sitting on $300 billion in increased savings from the start of the pandemic.
“We are in the midst of the largest transfer of wealth in Canadian history,” Tal said, adding 30 per cent of home buyers are receiving gifts toward a down payment with an average size of $80,000.
Another tailwind, especially for Edmonton, will be improving economic conditions, said economist Felicia Mutheardy with the City of Edmonton, speaking at the forecast.
“We’re cautiously optimistic about 2022,” she said.
In turn, Edmonton should see increased migration with estimates for the province at about 22,000. All of these factors will drive higher sales in the region.
Although 2021 is not forecast to be a record-breaking year for sales, former RAE chair Tom Shearer noted these predictions can be wrong. As evidence, he pointed to the 2021 forecast, which projected sales and prices last year would decrease from 2020 levels.
“Often the only thing economists can agree upon (with forecasts) is uncertainty, and there was a lot of that last year,” he said. “But I know all realtors would agree 2021 was a strong year.
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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.
The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.
“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.
“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”
The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.
New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.
In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.
The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.
“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.
“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”
He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.
“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.
“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”
All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.
Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.
“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.
“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.
Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.
Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.
The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.
Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.
They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.
The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.
Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.
Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500
Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438
Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103
Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359
Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent
How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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