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Embassies unstaffed, military gaps: America’s toxic politics spills into foreign affairs

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A jarring split-screen reality will come into focus this week, highlighting grand American ambitions internationally amid political dysfunction back home.

As the U.S. and China compete for influence, two cabinet members are making yet another trip to the Indo-Pacific, a region with vital naval hubs and shipping lanes: it’s the 12th and eighth trip there for the secretaries of state and defence.

Meanwhile, at home, the U.S.’s notoriously bitter domestic politics is spilling into international issues in novel ways — with battles over abortion and LGBTQ issues stalling everything from U.S. military hiring and promotions, to diplomatic appointments and a new military budget.

After the Supreme Court limited abortion access last summer, the military started funding leaves to allow personnel to have the procedures in pro-choice states.

This prompted Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville of Alabama to start systematically blocking Senate military confirmations.

The U.S. is looking to build alliances in the Indo-Pacific region, a focal point of its tension with China, as seen here during a U.S.-Philippines military exercise this spring. (Eloisa Lopez/Reuters)

It’s the same in U.S. diplomacy: Nearly three dozen countries lack U.S. ambassadors due to a blockade in the Senate, where Republican Rand Paul wants more information on the origins of COVID-19.

As well, an updated military budget has been paused over the above-mentioned abortion issue, as well as diversity initiatives and gender-affirming care, which Republicans want removed from the Pentagon budget.

U.S. allies vent frustrations

Aside from all this, U.S. President Joe Biden recently had to cancel what would have been a historic first trip to a Pacific island nation at the centre of the U.S.-China power struggle; he was back in Washington amid a Congressional crisis over the debt ceiling.

One Pacific ally was in Washington last week recounting his past frustrations dealing with the U.S. political system, saying it creates doubts among America’s friends.

Surangel Whipps, the president of Palau, noted that it took eight years for Congress to confirm permanent funding for a security and economic pact between the two countries as Democrats and Republicans grappled with other issues.

Man seated on couch
Palau President Surangel Whipps Jr., seen here in June, was in Washington this month. He says people in his area are worried about U.S. politics. (John Geddie/Reuters)

Whipps told a Washington audience at a Foundation for Defense of Democracies gathering that Palau is a model U.S. ally — it’s blocked plans for a Chinese casino next to a U.S. radar site, and it wants to rip up and replace the country’s Huawei cellular infrastructure.

But with the U.S.-Palau pact again up for renewal, Whipps said he hoped to avoid a repeat of last time.

“If the relationship is that important, you have to show it,” he told the audience, noting that allies don’t want to see the U.S. so caught up in internal politics that it ignores international responsibilities.

“Because I think that’s what our people at home kind of fear sometimes — you know, we see how divided [Capitol] Hill is.”

Senator walks with reporters trailing him
U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, in an effort to get more information about the origins of COVID-19, has stalled all confirmations to senior U.S. diplomatic posts. (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)

Political polarization isn’t all bad. Robust debate can reduce the risk of groupthink and related errors, and is part of what makes democracies resilient.

Generations ago, political scientists complained about the opposite problem: that U.S. political parties were too similar and they agreed too much.

But several scholars who study the interplay between domestic and foreign politics say the U.S. has swung way beyond the healthy level.

“I think it is a big problem,” said Jordan Tama, who specializes in domestic politics and foreign policy at American University.

“We are shooting ourselves in the foot — not putting in place key national-security officials … It’s troubling.”

Blinken motioning from podium
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, seen during a media conference on July 14, is making his 12th trip to the Indo-Pacific region, an area of increasingly intense U.S. focus. (Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana/Reuters)

Foreign policy at loggerheads is nothing new

Another type of polarization involves substantive disagreements on foreign affairs that see the U.S. zigzagging on certain policies from one administration to the next.

The Paris climate accord, the Iran nuclear deal and the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact, for example, were all policies adopted under Barack Obama and cancelled under Donald Trump. In some cases, they’re now being renewed under Biden.

One scholar of international relations joked that this is the reason Secretary of State Antony Blinken has made 12 trips to the Indo-Pacific — and probably needs to do 12 more.

Peter Trubowitz said the world is dizzy from trying to follow these U.S. foreign policy zigzags and figure out whether the country’s current positions will survive the next election.

“America’s allies need to be reassured,” said Trubowitz, an American and director of the U.S.-focused Phelan Centre at the London School of Economics.

“One of the reasons they need to be reassured is because the United States is so deeply polarized.”

At Clemson University in South Carolina, political scientist Jeffrey Peake has tried charting one reason this matters: a collapse in frequency of U.S. international treaties.

Between the Second World War and the presidency of George W. Bush, Peake counts an average of 16 treaties per year submitted for approval by the U.S. Senate. That dropped to four per year under Obama.

During the last two presidencies, it’s eroded to one a year.

Because it’s gotten harder to pass a treaty through Congress, Peake says presidents just sign agreements that aren’t entrenched in law, making it easy for a successor to simply cancel them. As Trump did, for example, with the climate accord.

Black and white photo of two men standing and smiling
Foreign policy paralysis has happened before. When Woodrow Wilson, left, tried creating the League of Nations in 1919, the U.S. Senate blocked American participation. Some analysts say the current level of partisanship is without precedent since the U.S. became a global superpower. (Reuters)

Global implications

These types of actions have major global implications, according to Peake. “The world doesn’t really address climate change without the U.S. on board.”

And bitter disagreements about international affairs aren’t new. In one famous example from 1919, the U.S. Senate rejected Woodrow Wilson’s plan for the precursor to the United Nations; the idea lay dormant for another three decades, through another world war.

The Senate later rejected the UN’s genocide convention for four decades, arms-control treaties and various climate accords. The chamber has also often blocked appointments over disputes.

But Peake says what’s happening in Washington right now is not a foreign policy disagreement — it’s about foreign policy becoming hostage to domestic disputes.

And it’s triggered separate blockades of senior military and senior diplomatic confirmations.

A smiling profile picture
Former football coach Tommy Tuberville, now a U.S. senator for Alabama, says a policy to fund abortions for military personnel has no basis in law. So he’s launched a blockade against senior military appointments in hopes of forcing a reversal of the policy. (Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters)

“This is not something you see typically in U.S. history,” Peake said, noting that in normal times, Alabama voters would punish Tuberville for blocking the confirmations.

Instead, because the U.S. is so polarized, they’re more likely to reward him for standing up to Democrats.

The benefits of messy debate

There are many examples throughout U.S. history where a little more argument might have helped matters.

In 2003, for example, there was little opposition to the Iraq war in Congress. Or McCarthyism and the Red Scare of the 1950s, abetted by bipartisan groupthink.

The catastrophic war in Vietnam is another example. In 1964, after only 40 minutes of debate, Congress voted to increase its military involvement in Vietnam — the vote was 416-0 in the House of Representatives and 88-2 in the Senate.

“Bipartisanship is not a cure-all,” Trubowitz said. “Too much of anything can be a bad thing.”

Soldier in military fatigues with face covered in black grime.
There are many examples in U.S. history of time when vigorous debate would have helped matters. Including during the Vietnam war, when the U.S. voted to increase its military action after almost no discussion and a 416-0 vote in Congress. (Reuters)

Jim Carafano, a national-security analyst who served on Donald Trump’s presidential transition team and has a long military and history background, said the unfilled positions are not ideal.

“It is problematic,” Carafano said of the military vacancies, which he says create inconveniences and planning problems, but he doesn’t think they’re debilitating. Besides, he says there’s no example of an urgent foreign crisis where the U.S. was prevented from acting.

“Is it hamstringing the [American] giant, you know, tying us down like Gulliver with the Lilliputians? I don’t see that.”

His bottom-line view: democracy is resilient.

The current logjams, Carafano says, will eventually clear, voting coalitions will eventually undergo one of their transformative realignments and the parties will look different.

It’s a view as old as American history.

When he visited the U.S. at the dawn of the republic, French writer Alexis de Tocqueville remarked that autocratic rule looks stable — until it isn’t. Democracy, he wrote, looks messy but it’s sturdy.

Then again, he also wrote that democracies are bad at handling foreign affairs.

Now, the U.S., the world’s self-described oldest democracy, seems determined to test both theories at once, confronting great foreign challenges while there’s so much squabbling in the household.

 

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Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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