Long-term unemployment, he noted, has swelled to represent more than a quarter of those unemployed. Under-employment is likewise a problem, as the most recent StatsCan data show one in six people who make up the potential labour force either are employed but working less than half their usual hours, are unemployed, or want a job but are not looking for one.
While economic output has been on a steady climb since its deep contraction during the shutdown period, private forecasters project that 2020 GDP will shrink by 5.8%, with 4.8% real GDP growth estimated in 2021.
In a recent poll of economists conducted by Reuters, the consensus estimate for 2021 GDP growth was even softer at 4.4%. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, was expected to slowly settle to 7% and 6.2% by end-2021 and end-2022, respectively, which would still leave it above the pre-pandemic level of roughly 5.5%
“Perhaps the most serious indicator of damage is the estimated drop in long-term growth performance for the Canadian economy, which economists call ‘potential,’” Hodgson said. Compared to pre-pandemic estimates, he said long-term growth potential has declined by roughly half to just 1.4% real growth annually. “Long-term annual growth that is half a percentage point lower than before the pandemic increases the odds of an eventual tax increase to fund policy priorities and manage public debt.”
While Canada’s long-term annual growth potential can be lifted back up toward two per cent, he said it will require an active reversal in the labour market and investment trends over the past year. The investment gap can only be partly addressed through stronger public-sector investment in infrastructure. Investment in maintenance of the existing capital base will recover somewhat alongside the economy’s gradual recovery, Hodgson said; efforts to invest in energy production, distribution, and use with low to no greenhouse gas emissions, as well as the transition challenges confronting the oil and gas sector, will be critical.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.
The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.
The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.
The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.
The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was little changed in late-morning trading as the financial sector fell, but energy and base metal stocks moved higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 0.05 of a point at 24,224.95.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 94.31 points at 42,417.69. The S&P 500 index was down 10.91 points at 5,781.13, while the Nasdaq composite was down 29.59 points at 18,262.03.
The Canadian dollar traded for 72.71 cents US compared with 73.05 cents US on Wednesday.
The November crude oil contract was up US$1.69 at US$74.93 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was up a penny at US$2.67 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$14.70 at US$2,640.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up two cents at US$4.42 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 10, 2024.
