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Erdoğan: The master haggler of world politics

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Only Hungary’s Viktor Orbán comes anywhere near to exasperating Western allies as much as Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Anyone reckoning on longevity in office diminishing the Turkish president’s skillful unpredictability would have been disabused by his tour de force at NATO’s annual summit in Vilnius this week.

Erdoğan jolted Western allies — and Vladimir Putin — with his outspoken support for Ukraine’s bid to join the 31-nation military bloc, saying the war-torn country “deserves NATO membership.” He followed that quickly by adding a new, impossible condition on dropping his veto on Sweden joining NATO: that the European Union must first advance Turkey’s long-stalled bid to be admitted.

It looked like the summit would be totally sidetracked from its planned focus on Ukraine. “Nobody should expect compromise nor understanding from me,” Erdoğan declared as he set off for Lithuania.

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And then suddenly he pirouetted. After hours of frenetic diplomacy, the Turkish leader shook hands with a relieved-looking NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and Sweden’s Ulf Kristersson. He had dropped his veto on Swedish membership, after blocking it for months on the grounds that Stockholm had been harboring Kurdish activists who Ankara describes as “terrorists.”

Even by his own mercurial standards, Erdoğan caught everyone by surprise.

Through this succession of policy twists and U-turns, Turkey secured substantial concessions, said Rich Outzen, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a think tank. “You have to acknowledge that Erdoğan played his hand well in terms of protecting Turkey’s national interests,” he said.

Meanwhile, Russia was wrong-footed, too. Erdoğan abruptly decided to free commanders of the Ukrainian Azov Regiment being held under a prisoner swap deal. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, complained of “a violation” of trust. “No one informed Russia about the transfer,” Peskov grumbled. “They were supposed to stay in Turkey until the end of the conflict.”

At first glance Erdoğan’s machinations look mercurial and even chaotic. But his behavior has all the hallmarks of the Ottoman etiquette and ritual of haggling at Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar, only with much bigger stakes. For Outzen, Erdoğan this week was doing what he always does — playing all sides off, capricious bargaining to get what he wanted, and not only to keep Sweden’s feet to the fire when it comes to Kurdish activists.

When it came to NATO expansion and Swedish accession, Washington and Brussels were in some ways misreading Erdoğan, he said. They see him as being “uniquely bad and for no good reason haranguing Sweden about its entry and only finally giving in after he was badgered appropriately and energetically by the West.”

But Outzen, who served in the U.S. Department of State as both a military and civilian adviser, working in the Policy Planning Office, says this is wrong. Erdoğan likely was always intending to eventually allow the Swedes to join, he was just after a better deal.

Being a member of NATO, the world’s premier security organization, enhances Turkish power, Outzen said, and they are always happy in principle at it being enlarged. “I actually think Erdoğan was playing a game based on the knowledge that ultimately he would let Sweden in but knowing that with the summit coming up he could maximize good optics and extract more concessions,” said Outzen.

New jets, please

Among the concessions was the sale of 40 new American F-16 warplanes to Turkey as well as the kit to upgrade the planes already in the country’s possession.

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has dismissed suggestions there was any link between Turkey’s backing down over Sweden and the F-16s. But as any good detective knows coincidences are rare. And U.S. lawmakers who have long opposed the sale to Turkey of the F-16s have come under pressure in the past two weeks from the Biden administration to lift their objections with the efforts intensifying as the summit neared.

Among the concessions was the sale of 40 new American F-16 warplanes to Turkey | Ezra Acayan/Getty Images

The concessions the Turkish leader secured go well beyond fighter jets. Western powers are poised to lift a slew of defense and aviation sanctions that were imposed on Ankara from 2019, said Emre Uslu, a Turkish academic. The sanctions were a reaction to Turkey’s purchase of Russian weapon systems and in response to Ankara’s military incursion into northern Syria.

In the NATO statement released after Erdoğan’s meeting with Stoltenberg and Kristersson, the alliance committed “to the principle that there should be no restrictions, barriers or sanctions to defence trade and investment among Allies. We will work towards eliminating such obstacles.” That was a big win for the Turkish leader.

He has long lobbied for Western sanctions on the country’s aviation and defense sectors to be lifted for both state and family reasons. “Turkey’s aviation industry is critical in Erdoğan’s endeavor to build a strong military-industrial complex, much of which belongs to businesses owned by his cronies and his son-in-law Selçuk Bayraktar,” Uslu added.

While Western powers may still be smarting from Erdoğan’s hardball tactics, Moscow’s reaction has also been tetchy, and for the first time in public the Russians criticized Turkey’s supplying of Bayraktar armed drones, which the Ukrainians have been using to good effect. The Kremlin says it expects clarification over Turkey’s release of the Ukrainian PoWs, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov complained to his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan this week about the “destructiveness” of Turkey’s military supplies to Ukraine.

Erdoğan’s actions prompted some to wonder whether he’s about to throw his lot in with the West. Western officials and geopolitical analysts have long questioned whether the Erdoğan-Putin friendship is sustainable. It started in earnest after a Turkish Air Force jet shot down a Russian warplane near the Syria–Turkey border in 2015. Some have questioned whether the friendship risks collapse because of the grandness of their geopolitical ambitions, which are often at cross-purposes. They were on opposing sides in Syria and Libya, for example.

But Putin and Erdoğan have been able to compartmentalize flashpoints in the past that threatened to upend their partnership. Erdoğan has a trump card in his hand — he’s refused so far to join the West in imposing economic sanctions on Russia. He hopes to host Putin in Turkey soon to discuss extending the deal to allow for the export of grain from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports and he’s likely to repeat his offer to act as a mediator between Moscow and Kyiv.

According to Outzen, Erdoğan is likely to continue to play both sides, in keeping with traditional Turkish foreign policy. “For him to decide he is totally on board with the West now would be out of character,” he said.

 

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Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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