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Erin O’Toole’s Conservative party is stuck in a political wasteland

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On his way to winning the Conservative leadership, Erin O’Toole decisively beat his rivals in Quebec. But their battle was fought in a field of ruins.

In the big picture, the campaign in Quebec to succeed Andrew Scheer took place in closed circuit, at a potentially unbridgeable distance from the province’s political mainstream.

Year in and year out, more than 90 per cent of Quebecers tells pollsters that fluency in French and English is an essential requirement for anyone seeking a position of national leadership.

The consensus on the need for a division between church and state is stronger in Quebec than anywhere else in Canada.

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Against that backdrop, the combined first-ballot showing in Quebec of 20 per cent support for Leslyn Lewis and Derek Sloan, both unilingual and both backed by the anti-abortion lobby, speaks volumes about the disconnect between the flagging Quebec wing that O’Toole has inherited and the province’s electorate.

The singularity of the results did not prevent veteran MP Pierre Poilievre from suggesting that a blue wave could be in the making in Quebec.

If only because his Ottawa seat is geographically close to the action in the province next door, he should know better. One can only hope Poilievre — in his current role as finance critic — brings more rigour to his analysis of Canada’s fiscal outlook.

Of more than 170,000 Conservative party members who cast a ballot in last week’s election, fewer than 8,000 were from Quebec. And while the party added thousands of members in the rest of the country over the course of the race, the opposite happened in Canada’s second-largest province.

 

The number of Quebec members who cast a ballot shrank by 21 per cent between the vote for a successor to Stephen Harper in 2017 and the latest leadership tally.

There is more at play here than the absence of a native son candidate from the 2020 lineup.

Between the last two Conservative leadership campaigns, the Bloc Québécois has risen from the ashes. By all appearances, its return to relative strength last fall was not a one-election wonder.

In a federal election this fall, polls show that the Quebec battle would be a two-way fight between the Liberals and the BQ. In the last Léger sounding earlier this week, the Conservatives had 16 per cent support, lagging 16 points behind their sovereigntist rivals and less than a handful of points ahead of the New Democrats.

When the Bloc does well, the Liberals tend to do better in Quebec than the Conservatives and the New Democrats. That dynamic has been in evidence for much of the sovereigntist party’s 30-year existence.

It’s particularly true in the case of the Conservatives, whose modest zones of influence in Quebec are all located outside Montreal, in Bloc-friendly francophone territory,

As often as not, the BQ helps keep the Liberals’ rivals for federal power at bay. And that is just fine in the eye of the many Bloc supporters, who deserted the party for the NDP and the Liberals in 2011 and 2015 primarily in an attempt to oust Harper’s Conservatives from power.

In a federal election that could take place as early as this year, the path to power for O’Toole is unlikely to run through Quebec.

At the same time, national polls and the leadership vote results suggest there is not an easily available alternative route through Ontario, or at least not absent a stronger NDP.

In the past, Conservative victories have often come hand-in-hand with a healthy showing for the New Democrats, at Liberals’ expense. It is not a coincidence that Quebec’s orange wave in 2011 came in tandem with a Conservative majority government.

As O’Toole takes command of the official opposition, the stars are far from aligned in favour of his party. And the challenging arithmetic involved in achieving a Conservative victory, let alone a majority, has consequences that go beyond the vote count on election night.

 

For instance, more than a few Conservatives believe O’Toole needs to reach beyond the confines of his caucus for star economic candidates. Some argue that would make it easier to exploit incoming finance minister Chrystia Freeland’s lack of corporate credentials.

 

Others simply feel no one in the current Conservative caucus inspires the level of confidence that would bolster the party’s case that it is best placed to navigate the troubled fiscal waters of the post-pandemic era.

 

But here’s the rub: the men and women who could make up a high-profile Conservative economic dream team to attract voters in Ontario and Quebec are more likely to be found in the Conservative electoral wasteland of Toronto and Montreal, where they risk being unelectable, than in the party’s heartland.

Chantal Hébert is an Ottawa-based freelance contributing columnist covering politics for the Star. Reach her via email: chantalh28@gmail.com or follow her on Twitter: @ChantalHbert

Source:- Toronto Star

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The MAGA Right is Flirting With Political Violence – Vanity Fair

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Tom Cotton is encouraging vigilantism, and Kari Lake is urging supporters to “strap on a Glock.”

April 17, 2024

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Image may contain Tom Cotton Face Head Person Photography Portrait Adult Formal Wear Accessories Tie and People

Tom Cotton speaks at a press conference in December 2023.Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

The MAGA right exists in a perpetual state of overheated grievance. But as the November election nears, the temperature seems to be rising, getting dangerously high.

This week, following Gaza war protests that disrupted travel in major American cities Monday, Senator Tom Cotton explicitly called on Americans to “take matters into [their] own hands” to get demonstrators out of the way. Asked to clarify those comments Tuesday, Cotton stood by them, telling reporters he would “do it myself” if he were blocked in traffic by demonstrators: “It calls for getting out of your car and forcibly removing” protestors,” he said.

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The right-wing senator’s comments came on the heels of Kari Lake, the GOP candidate for Senate in Arizona, suggesting supporters should arm themselves for the 2024 election season. “The next six months is going to be intense,” she said at a rally Sunday. “And we need to strap on our—let’s see, what do we want to strap on? We’re going to strap on our seat belt. We’re going to put on our helmet or your Kari Lake ballcap. We are going to put on the armor of God. And maybe strap on a Glock on the side of us, just in case.”

And those comments came a couple weeks after Donald Trump, who regularly invokes apocalyptic and violent rhetoric, shared an image on social media depicting President Joe Biden—his political rival—hog-tied in the back of a pick-up truck. “This image from Donald Trump is the type of crap you post when you’re calling for a bloodbath or when you tell the Proud Boys to ‘stand back and stand by,’” a Biden spokesperson told ABC News last month, referring to the former president’s dog-whistle to extremist groups during a 2020 debate and to cryptic remarks he’s made from rally stages this spring suggesting Biden’s reelection would mean a “bloodbath”—for the auto industry and for the border. This kind of thing is nothing new—not for Trump, not for his allies, and not in American history, which is what makes these flirtations with political violence all the more dangerous.

We’ve seen where this kind of reckless rhetoric can lead. Throughout Trump’s first campaign for president, it led to eruptions of violence at his rallies, which he openly encouraged: “Knock the crap out of ‘em, would you?” he told supporters of hecklers. It also inflamed tensions throughout his presidency, which culminated with his instigating a violent insurrection at the United States Capitol. According to a PBS Newshour/NPR/Marist poll this month, 20 percent of Americans believe violence may be necessary to get the country on track. A disturbing new study out of University of California-Davis found openness to political violence was even higher among gun owners, particularly those who own assault weapons, recently purchased their firearms, or carry them in public. And an October survey by the Public Religion Research Institute and the Brookings Institution suggested that support for political violence, while still limited, appears to be increasing, with nearly a quarter of respondents overall—and a third of Republicans—agreeing with the statement: “Patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country.”

“It looks like the temperature has gone up across the board, but especially among Republicans,” Robert P. Jones, president and founder of PRRI, told Axios of the survey last fall. That’s no accident. It’s the kind of political climate you get when a sitting senator promotes vigilantism, a Senate candidate calls on supporters to take up arms, and a major party embraces or enables a demagogue. “Political violence,” as Biden campaign communications director Michael Tyler put it a couple weeks ago, “has been and continues to be central to Donald Trump’s brand of politics.”

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Walking tour to celebrate Toronto's first Black politician – CBC.ca

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A new walking tour this summer will celebrate the legacy of a man who literally changed the face of Toronto’s politics, Canada’s first elected politician who wasn’t white: William Peyton Hubbard. 

Elected as a City Alderman in 1894, Hubbard served until 1914, including stints as acting mayor of Toronto. But east end resident Lanrick Bennett was embarrassed to say he’d never heard of him until the 2010s — when Hubbard’s name was put forward in a park naming contest in Riverdale.

In 2016, a park at Broadview Avenue and Gerrard Street E. was officially named Hubbard Park. This summer, Bennett is organizing a historical walking tour from Hubbard’s former residence on Broadview to the park, which will be lead by fellow east ender Marie Wilson, who initiated the campaign to name the green space after him. 

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“As a parent, I want my kids to understand that there are people that look like them that were around, that were here, that came before,” Bennett said.

“They were fighting the good fight back then.” 

The tour is part of a series of Black history walking tours that Bennett will be hosting this summer to coincide with Emancipation Day in August, called #HearThis. This week, he was awarded a $1,000 grant from the charities Toronto Foundation and Volunteer Toronto to organize the walks.

He will also be digitizing the routes so people can do them on their own time. 

A portrait of W.P. Hubbard at 89 years old. He was born in 1842 and died at the age of 93 in 1935. (City of Toronto Archives)

“This entire project is about amplification,” Bennett said. “I don’t know everything about all the history within this neighborhood and within this community, but I want people to start digging.”

Park named after Hubbard in 2016

In the contest to name the park nearly a decade ago, Wilson put up flyers and approached people in the neighbourhood to tell them who Hubbard was and why they should vote for him. She learned of Hubbard from the plaque in front of his former home. 

“I’m not only fascinated by history, but by forgotten history and the forgotten people in history,” she said. “I think that Hubbard fell into that category. I know that there are some people who know of him and did back then, but in a big way, I don’t think he was known.”

At the time of the park’s unveiling, Hubbard’s great-granddaughter Lorraine Hubbard said it was the first, permanent public recognition of his contributions to the city. 

A woman stands at the left side of the frame and a man stands at the right, they are in front of a sign that says Hubbard Park.
Marie Wilson, at left, will be leading the walk, which was organized by Lanrick Bennett, at right. (Martin Trainor/CBC)

Aside from the fact that he was the city’s first Black politician, who always stood up for the underdog, she said her favourite fact about Hubbard was that he baked himself a birthday cake every year. 

Hubbard was born near Bathurst and Bloor streets, after his parents escaped enslavement in America. But he didn’t begin his political career until he was in his 50s, after working as a baker and cab driver. 

He was elected in his second attempt in one of the wealthiest and whitest wards in Toronto, which spanned University Avenue to Bathurst Street. He was reelected 14 times.

Hubbard faced and fought racism

When others wanted them privatized, Hubbard helped keep Toronto’s hydroelectric and water systems public utilities, which led to the creation of Toronto Hydro. He was also part of the city’s Board of Control, a powerful four-member group at the city’s executive level that advised the mayor on municipal spending. 

Wilson said he was also an instrumental player in the creation of High Park.

“He was a champion of the underdog and he just felt that the poor people, the disenfranchised, needed what we now call green space,” she said. 

While breaking barriers, Heritage Toronto’s website says Hubbard defended other marginalized groups, such as the city’s Chinese and Jewish communities, from discrimination and violence. 

But being a Black man at the turn of the century, he had his own experiences of racial abuse from city councillors from other cities, Heritage Toronto says. When conducting business outside the city, he was sometimes required to carry character reference letters from the mayor. 

Bennett hopes that through the tour, he can provide a context of the Black history found in Toronto’s east end. 

“It’s kind of cool to be living where we do and to know that history is around you and it’s literally outside of your front door,” he said.  

For more stories about the experiences of Black Canadians — from anti-Black racism to success stories within the Black community — check out Being Black in Canada, a CBC project Black Canadians can be proud of. You can read more stories here.

A banner of upturned fists, with the words 'Being Black in Canada'.
(CBC)

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CAQ whip set to jump into federal politics as candidate for Poilievre's Conservatives – CBC.ca

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Federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has dipped into the Quebec government ranks to add a new candidate to his team.

Éric Lefebvre, the Coalition Avenir Québec government whip, is leaving the province’s ruling party and will sit as an Independent before joining the Tories ahead of the next federal election.

Poilievre wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, that he was proud to have Lefebvre join the Conservative team.

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On Tuesday night, Lefebvre announced he was leaving the CAQ caucus but would continue to represent the riding of Arthabaska, northeast of Montreal, as an Independent.

Quebec Premier François Legault wrote on X that he asked Lefebvre to withdraw from caucus.

Lefebvre, who was unsuccessful in a 2008 run for the federal Conservatives, first won the Arthabaska riding in a 2016 byelection and was re-elected in 2018 and 2022.

The next federal election must be held by October 2025.

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