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Europe Is Bracing for a Sharp, Abrupt Real Estate Reversal

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(Bloomberg) — Turmoil at trophy properties in London and Frankfurt offer a glimpse of the damage awaiting European real estate investors as they face the sharpest reversal on record.

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From a fraught refinancing process for an office building in the City of London to the strained sale of the Commerzbank Tower in Germany’s financial hub, investors are scrambling to find ways to bridge financing gaps as lending markets seize up from rapidly rising interest rates.

The reality check will start to hit in the coming weeks as lenders across Europe get results of year-end appraisals. Hefty declines in valuations threaten to cause breaches of loan covenants, triggering emergency funding measures from forced sales to pumping in fresh cash.

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“Europe is going to go through the great unwind of 10 years of easy money,” said Skardon Baker, a partner at private equity firm Apollo Global Management. “The amount of distress and dislocation is off the spectrum.”

Read more: Global Real Estate Market Faces $175 Billion Debt Spiral

Loans, bonds and other debt totaling about €1.9 trillion ($2.1 trillion) — nearly the size of the Italian economy — are secured against commercial property or extended to landlords in Europe and the UK, according to the European Banking Authority, a survey by Bayes Business School and data compiled by Bloomberg.

Click here to read a German version of this story.

Roughly 20% of that, or about €390 billion, will mature this year, and the looming crunch marks the first real test of regulations designed after the global financial crisis to contain real estate lending risks. Those rules could end up making a correction steeper and more abrupt.

“I think the revaluation will happen more quickly than in the past,” said John O’Driscoll, head of the real assets business of French insurer Axa SA’s investment management unit. “People are starting to get exposed as the tide goes out.”

Europe’s lenders will be prodded by the new regulations to act more aggressively on bad loans. They’re also in better shape than during the last real estate crisis more than a decade ago, so could be less inclined to allow issues to fester. That puts the burden on borrowers.

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, most banks were reluctant to call in bad loans as doing so would have led to huge losses — a practice dubbed “extend and pretend.” Under new rules on non-performing loans, lenders will have to provision for expected, rather than accrued, losses. That means they have less incentive to sit tight and hope asset values recover.

“The year end valuations done in the first quarter will be key,” said Ravi Stickney, managing partner and chief investment officer for real estate at Cheyne Capital, an alternative-investment fund manager that raised £2.5 billion for real estate lending last year. “The question mark is over what the banks actually do.”

So far valuations haven’t declined enough so that senior debt — the loans generally held by banks — are underwater, but that could soon change. UK commercial properties valued by CBRE Group Inc. fell by 13% last year. The decline accelerated in the second half, with the broker registering a 3% fall in December alone. Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have forecast that the total decline could top 20%.

Banks might then act before prices fall further and risk credit losses, forcing indebted landlords into difficult alternatives. The issues get thornier for those facing debt maturities. Lenders are reducing the amount of a property’s value they’re willing to loan out. That means a lower appraisal could act as a double whammy, increasing the funding gap.

“Bank appetite is lower and it will stay lower” until there’s sign the market has hit bottom, said Vincent Nobel, head of asset-based lending at Federated Hermes Inc. The new regulations prod banks to deal with bad loans “and one way to solve problems is to make it somebody else’s problem.”

Sweden has so far been the epicenter of the crisis, with home prices projected to drop 20% from peak levels. The country’s listed property firms have lost 30% of their value over the past 12 months, and the Swedish central bank and Financial Supervisory Authority have repeatedly warned of the risks stemming from commercial property debt.

Falling real estate values could trigger a “domino effect,” as demands for more collateral could force distressed selling, according to Anders Kvist, a senior adviser to the director of the FSA.

While there are some pockets of stability like in Italy and Spain, which were hit harder after the global financial crisis, the UK is slumping and there are signs that Germany could be next.

On the bright side, there are more options available for strapped property investors. Entities such as closed-ended credit funds have steadily expanded over the past decade. Collectively, insurers and other alternative lenders had a higher share of new UK real estate loans than the country’s major banks in the first half of last year, according to the Bayes survey.

In the next 18 months, investors will pour a record amount of money into so-called opportunistic funds which make riskier real estate bets, Cantor Fitzgerald Chief Executive Officer Howard Lutnick said at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week. The trend will help accelerate a rebound in commercial real estate markets, he said.

These new tools could make the turmoil more short-lived than in the past when banks held on to bad loans for years. Louis Landeman, a credit analyst at Danske Bank in Stockholm, expects the reset to be relatively orderly with borrowers having enough to take counter measures.

“Anyone that can come up with a creative way of filling that gap is going to have a great time,” said Mat Oakley, head of commercial research at Savills.

–With assistance from Anton Wilen, Antonio Vanuzzo, Damian Shepherd, Konrad Krasuski and Nicholas Comfort.

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Former HGTV star from Los Gatos sentenced in $10M real estate fraud case – CBS San Francisco

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LOS GATOS – A Los Gatos man who starred in a real estate reality show was sentenced to jail and ordered to pay back nearly $10 million to his victims after being convicted of real estate fraud, prosecutors said Tuesday.

According to Santa Clara County District Attorney Jeff Rosen’s office, 58-year-old Charles “Todd” Hill received a four-year sentence. Hill starred in the HGTV show “Flip It to Win It“, which featured teams buying dilapidated homes and fixing them, before selling them for a profit.

The show aired in 2014.

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Prosecutors said Hill was convicted in Sep. 2023 after admitting to grand theft with aggravated white-collar enhancements for committing real estate and financial fraud against 11 victims. Hill was indicted in 2019 following an investigation by the DA’s office.

“Some see the huge amount of money in Silicon Valley real estate as a business opportunity,” Rosen said in a statement. “Others, unfortunately, see it as a criminal opportunity – and we will hold those people strictly accountable.”

According to the DA’s office, Hill engaged in “multiple fraud schemes”, with some scams dating back before the HGTV show.

Prosecutors said in one instance, he diverted construction money for his personal use. In another, Hill created a Ponzi scheme by taking money intended to buy homes from an investor and spending it on a lavish lifestyle instead. He hid the theft by creating false balance sheets and used fraudulent information to obtain loans, according to prosecutors.

In a third case, prosecutors said an investor who provided $250,000 to remodel a home toured the property, only finding it to be a “burnt down shell” with no work performed.

Hill had used the money on a rented apartment in San Francisco along with spending on hotels, vacations and luxury cars, prosecutors said.

In addition to jail time, Hill was ordered to pay back $9,402,678.43 in restitution and serve 10 years probation. Hill has been remanded into custody, the DA’s office announced.

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Unlocking success in real estate with Glenn Zdrill – paNOW

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Since Zdrill is well versed in all aspects of the real estate industry, you’ll have answers to questions before you even think to ask them – like, “How does mortgage loan insurance work?” or “How much will I need for closing costs?”

“Closing costs typically range from 1.5 to four per cent of the home’s purchase price and include things like legal and administrative fees, your home inspection, appraisal fees and more. So, you need to budget for this. Its my job to make sure you’re asking all of the right questions and I’m giving you the information you need to make informed decisions.”

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As a licensed realtor with RE/MAX P.A. Realty, Zdrill has the option to show any property on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) database. He prides himself on understanding the market and current trends including property prices and the community.

“Prince Albert continues to have a lot of things happening with the construction of the new hospital, swimming pool and rinks. When I got into real estate over a year ago, I believed Prince Albert was a community on the verge of a boom and we’re starting to see that come to fruition.”

Selling or buying a home involves a multitude of moving parts, from negotiations to closing procedures and Zdrill is committed to helping his clients navigate the complexities with confidence.

Contact Glenn Zdrill through the RE/MAX P.A. Realty office at 2370 – Second Ave. W or give him a call at 306-961-5767.

*Please note, this article is not intended to solicit any properties already listed for sale.

**This content was created by paNOW’s commercial content division.

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Ontario regulator freezes assets of unlicensed builder

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The extraordinary measures Ontario’s new homes regulator is taking to deal with a Toronto builder with a history of sanctions highlight the challenge posed by unlicensed builders.

On March 19, the Home Construction Regulatory Authority (HCRA) froze the assets of Albion Building Consultant Inc. Court documents said that an investigation found evidence that the company took money for as many as 53 separate homes in Toronto it did not have the proper licences to build or sell.

The number of homes allegedly illegally built by Albion is several times larger than previously believed, which the HCRA said prompted it to invoke rarely used powers.

The freezing of assets was not punitive, but “to hold any purchaser funds in trust … to prohibit [Albion] from transferring any assets [and] to preserve the deposits for the benefit of homebuyers,” said Wendy Moir, the HCRA’s chief executive officer and registrar.

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Ontario’s new home regulations are split between two delegated authorities, HCRA and Tarion. HCRA, which was launched in 2021, licenses builders and polices their conduct. Tarion approves the number of homes a builder can enroll in its home warranty program, an insurance pool that protects new home deposits and serves as a backstop for builder defect complaints.

If homes are built or sold without licences, they cannot be enrolled in the Tarion program, limiting the buyers’ recourse in the event of defaults by the builder.

“The HCRA is taking appropriate action to protect the public and send a clear message to the industry that those who act unlawfully or unethically will be held accountable,” said Ms. Moir.

The principals of Albion – Zamal Hossain and his wife Farida Haque – have already been convicted four times for regulatory offences related to 16 homes built without licences between 2016 and 2022. But in a search warrant application the HCRA filed on Feb. 20 with the Ontario Court of Justice, the agency outlines dozens of other new-build homes Albion is alleged to have sold or constructed. Those allegations have yet to be proven in court.

The warrant is only the second one the relatively new agency has served. It allowed investigators to comb through Albion’s office at 3028 Danforth Ave. in Toronto for any records of contracts and agreements with buyers about the homes, contracts with trades and subtrades, contact information for the new home purchasers and any correspondence between Albion and purchasers about the new homes.

“We got a lot of information from them – a van full of documents,” said Ms. Moir. “We have hundreds of documents to go through,” she said. “This is one of our largest investigations.”

Albion’s business has been to tear down a single detached home, split the lot and then construct two new homes on the old site. The HCRA warrant suggests the majority of the 53 suspected unlicensed homes are lot-splits located mainly in Scarborough. It’s unclear as yet how many homes the company actually completed.

In the past, Tarion extended a licence to build homes to Mr. Hossain and Albion, but limited the number of new homes he was allowed to enroll into its insurance program.

The evidence HCRA submitted for the search warrant suggests that the actual number of unlicensed homes built by Albion was several times higher than Mr. Hossain admitted.

Mr. Hossain didn’t respond to requests for comment for this story, but in 2023 he offered this comment to The Globe on his previous convictions: “Yes I broke the law. I did the house without the Tarion [new home warranty]. … I didn’t murder anybody.”

According to Ms. Moir, there’s no clear tally of how many unlicensed builders there are in the province. She notes that it is not illegal to build your own home without a licence. But if you hire a contractor to do it, they must be licensed.

“We’ve seen an 80-per-cent increase in illegal building complaints since last year,” she said. “I don’t think it’s more illegal building, we think it’s more awareness.”

Neil Rodgers, Interim CEO of the Ontario Home Builders Association, said the Albion case puts a spotlight on the need for regulatory fixes to tackle illegal vending where an unlicensed builder takes deposits to build homes they aren’t entitled to sell or build.

“There has to be a pro-active regulatory regime,” said Mr. Rodgers. “There needs to be a system put in place that allows for what I’m going to call early warning tracking, whereby purchasers or their agents or their solicitors could register their agreements of purchase and sale with HCRA or Tarion. If there’s a pattern that’s emerging it gives the regulator an opportunity to intervene much faster.”

Mr. Rodgers likens this requirement on buyers to share details of their agreement of purchase and sale’s with HCRA or another agency as similar to mailing a warranty card for an electronic appliance, and says he’s calling on the province for consultations on changes to the requirements.

Karen Somerville of the consumer lobby group Canadians for Properly Built Homes (CPBH) doesn’t agree the burden should be on consumers to identify unlicensed builders, and points to a different screening where there’s already been pilot programs in the past: construction permitting.

“CPBH proposes that the municipality has the responsibility to notify HCRA given the information available in the building permit application,” Ms. Somerville said. “This would result in government organizations working together using information they already have to identify unlicensed builders.”

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