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European Oil Majors Are Set to Struggle as a Supply Glut Looms

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Oil stocks went back in vogue two years ago with a vengeance as investors sought to get a piece of the record profits the industry reaped from the gas squeeze in Europe and the oil squeeze fears prompted by sanctions on Russia.

Two years on, and that appeal is dissipating, at least according to some banks, as oversupply in oil looms over the market, and demand growth remains below optimistic expectations. In fact, one bank believes European Big Oil is maxed out.

Last month, Morgan Stanley cut its price target for crude oil, citing rising supply and dwindling demand growth. The bank also cut its share price targets for the European Big Oil majors without exception. TotalEnergies, Shell, BP, Equinor, and Repsol were all revised down, with Eni alone being spared by the bank’s forecasters.

Those forecasters had a sound basis for their revisions: none of the factors that usually drive energy company stocks higher were present at the moment. Among these factors, as reported by the Financial Times, were expectations of higher inflation, higher interest rates, rising oil prices, and a subdued overall stock market.

“Going through the checklist, we find that none of these are in place at the moment. In fact, most of these factors are pointing in the opposite direction,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note predicting the immediate future of European supermajors.

Interestingly, Morgan Stanley lists higher interest rates as conducive to higher energy stock prices, when those are in opposition to another factor for higher stock prices, namely rising oil prices. When interest rates are high, oil prices tend to get pressured, and vice versa. But another factor that Morgan Stanley cited as a reason for pessimism about the energy sector was the discrepancy between oil demand and oil supply.

The bank said in an earlier report that the oil market would swing into oversupply in 2025 amid higher production from both OPEC+ and other producers, namely the United States and Brazil. Morgan Stanley, by the way, is not the only bank predicting a surplus. Goldman Sachs also recently forecasted a surplus situation, citing high global inventories, weak Chinese demand, and growing U.S. production.

If all these developments are indeed in progress, it’s bad news for the European supermajors. They just recently revised their strategies, reprioritizing their core business over experiments with so-called ESG investing over the past few years as they sought to get a piece of the transition action and suffered losses from it.

Yet here is the thing: the factors Morgan Stanley lists as precursors to a stock rout in oil and gas are not a fact. They are suggestions and possibilities. And they might never materialize.

Let’s take Morgan’s expectation for a surplus oil market in 2025. The specific numbers are demand growth of 1.2 million barrels daily and supply growth of 2.6 million barrels daily, both from OPEC and non-OPEC producers. Like others, Morgan Stanley assumes that U.S. output would keep growing at previous rates and that OPEC will begin rolling back its cuts at whatever price point Brent crude is trading. These are some substantial assumptions, especially in light of OPEC’s insistence it would only begin rolling back the cuts when market conditions are right. Brent below $80 does not seem to fit OPEC’s perception of the right market conditions.

Leaving the OPEC cuts aside, however, what about production? U.S. drillers have been serving surprise after surprise, reporting higher than expected output on drilling efficiencies, posting an unexpected output growth rate of about 1 million bpd for last year despite a lower rig count. Yet the assumption that this would continue regardless of where oil prices are going would be a bold one. Because in addition to drilling efficiencies, U.S. oil producers have been focusing on ensuring a certain level of shareholder returns at the expense of drilling just for the fun of it.

Then there is demand. All price forecasts, whether Brent crude or Shell’s stock, rely heavily on Chinese demand data and forecasts. The data suggests that the oil demand in the world’s largest importer of the commodity is losing steam after two decades of strong growth. This naturally weighs on prices—and on supply.

Reuters’ John Kemp reported last month that OECD oil inventories were 120 million barrels or 4% below the ten-year average at the end of June this year. This was up from a deficit of 74 million barrels at the end of March. In other words, the world, or at least the OECD part of it, was dipping into inventories to satisfy its oil demand. Those are very far from the surplus Morgan Stanley predicted for next year. Incidentally, OPEC+ is in no rush to roll back production cuts.

European supermajors have seen their stocks underperform their U.S. peers. However, the consensus on the reasons for that has had nothing to do with oil demand and supply. It has had to do with the much tighter regulation in Europe and the obligation to invest in non-core activities in the alternative energy segment of the industry. Those investments have not turned out well—despite upbeat analyst forecasts that this was the way forward and the supermajors were doing the right thing. Big Oil’s bets on its core business, on the other hand, have generally paid off, regardless of bank predictions.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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