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Every year, StatCan tweaks how it calculates inflation. What to know about this year’s changes

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Whenever you pass through the cash register at a grocery store, the price of everything in your shopping cart — from discounted chicken to strawberries on promotion — is collected by the retailer and sent to Statistics Canada.

That’s just one of several ways the data agency tracks the spending reflected in its consumer price index, or CPI: Canada’s most comprehensive measure of inflation.

CPI is broken down into eight categories — called “baskets” — meant to show the average cost of a group of goods and services. There’s a food basket, a transportation basket and a shelter basket, among others.

When taken together, these baskets make up the overall CPI number, or the so-called headline number that you see in our reporting every month. But they each hold a different “weight” in the overall CPI, depending on how much Canadians spend on one basket relative to the others.

Every year, Statistics Canada conducts a review of those categories. After this year’s change, food will now make up a bigger chunk of that overall figure, because Canadians dedicated more of their budgets to food bought in stores and at restaurants in 2023 than they did in the previous year.

Here’s what you need to know about the changes, and how they affect overall inflation.

Why do we break down inflation by basket?

Statistics Canada regularly reviews basket weights to make sure they’re reflective of how much Canadians are spending on goods and services.

“It’s something that we do every year. And the fact that we do it every year is actually beneficial to Canadians because that means that the CPI is based on the most current spending patterns of Canadians,” said Rebecca Lehto, a Statistics Canada consumer price analyst.

Because Canadians spent more on food and dining out in 2023, the weight of the food basket increased (for the second year in a row) from 16.13 per cent of the total inflation number in 2022 to 16.72 per cent in 2023.

Food from grocery stores now accounts for 10.82 per cent of the overall CPI, while food from restaurants increased to 5.90 per cent of that figure, according to Statistics Canada.

The baskets for shelter and health and personal care also increased, while others — like those for transportation, or alcoholic beverages, tobacco products and recreational cannabis — declined in importance.

“This year, we saw the weight of food go up and that was essentially because more people are spending at restaurants again without COVID restrictions or capacity restraints. And it’s also coming from the grocery side,” because prices increased significantly, Lehto said.

What does that mean for inflation numbers?

Each basket has a varied impact on the overall CPI figure. More broadly, items like food or gas are sometimes excluded from inflation measures because their prices can be volatile.

“For example, a five per cent change in gas prices will impact the all-item [consumer price index] more than a five per cent change in milk prices,” because Canadians direct more spending to gas than they do milk, said Lehto.

“Going forward, a larger increase in food will have a larger impact on the all-items CPI.”

That starts with May numbers, which will be released on Tuesday morning.

How did the COVID-19 pandemic change price stability?

Adjusting the baskets was especially important during the pandemic when “spending patterns were shifting suddenly and profoundly,” said Lehto. While Statistics Canada updates the baskets every year now, before the pandemic, it did so every two years.

The changing basket weights are also an important marker of history, because they show where Canadians have had to devote more money in a given year, explained William Huggins, a professor of finance and business economics at McMaster University.

“The weights change in response to the data that’s already gone by. So when we’re seeing that increase in food weight, that’s in response to the fact that in 2023 we spent more than we did on food than in 2022,” he said.

That became especially pertinent during the pandemic, when restaurants shut down and people stopped eating out. People stopped travelling, too, which in turn impacted the transportation basket.

“You see all these wild changes in the CPI basket really as a diagnostic of how people were changing their lifestyles,” said Huggins.

Will I feel these changes at the grocery store?

The updated baskets “will still be a measure of approximately how a bundle of food prices has changed in the last month and it’s nothing more than that. It is a measure of average affordability,” said Michael von Massow, a food economist at the University of Guelph.

“The impact on the ground or in the grocery aisle, if you will, isn’t significantly different…. It gives us a sense of what to expect.

“If you really want to see what’s relevant to you as an individual, you could go look at the table and say, ‘Oh, I eat more chicken than beef, and fresh chicken [is] up less than beef in the last year.'”

Take the inflation numbers released last month. Food inflation grew at a slower rate of 1.4 per cent annually in April compared to the same time last year, when the growth rate was 9.1 per cent.

Those numbers won’t feel accurate to everyone — because we all have different grocery lists, said von Massow.

“[The basket] reflects changes in demand and it also reflects changes in relative prices.”

 

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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