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‘Everyone is going to have to pay more:’ What you need to know about mortgage renewals with interest rates at a 22-year high

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The Bank of Canada has now raised interest rates to their highest level in 22 years but many borrowers still haven’t been hit in the pocketbook.

Earlier this week the central bank pushed up its key overnight lending rate to five per cent, marking the 10th increase since March 2022.

For some variable rate mortgage holders with floating payments the pain from the latest hike will be immediately felt and will amount to about $14 more a month for every $100,000 owing on their mortgage.

But for other homeowners, who may have fixed rates or variable mortgages with fixed-payments, the impact is more likely to be felt at renewal.

Approximately half of all mortgages in Canada are set to renew in 2025 or 2026 due in part to the real estate frenzy that transpired over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“For the fixed rate people it’s going to be much less catastrophic. Many of those people will be able to shop for new mortgage and they will qualify because their mortgages are smaller due to the good payments they’ve made and they can manage it (the higher payments),” mortgage broker Ron Butler told CP24.com. this week. “The variable situation is somewhat more concerning because there may be no principal being paid down or it (the balance of the loan) might have even grown (due to fixed payments that don’t even cover interest).”

If you have a mortgage coming up for renewal here is what you need to know about this higher rate environment.

SOME PAYMENTS COULD SKYROCKET

Many variable rate mortgage holders – those at four of the six big banks – have what is known as fixed payments. That has meant that as rates have increased more and more of their money has gone to interest rather than principal, even as their total payment has remained the same. The practice has, in turn, created a situation where some homeowners have amortizations that have risen well beyond the ones they agreed to when they first took out their mortgage and that is likely to be a problem come renewal.

“Because of these rate hikes some homeowners might have an amortization of 60 years and the current lender will likely not allow them to keep that,” RATESDOTCA mortgage expert Victor Tran told CP24.com. “They will need to bring it down to the contractual amortization and if that happens their payments are going to skyrocket. It is going to be a lot higher than what they are currently paying.”

Tran said that he expects lenders to show some flexibility when it comes to homeowners who haven’t been paying off much, if any, principal.

But he said that it is not likely that homeowners will be able to keep extended amortization periods forever, an opinion that Butler also holds.

Butler told CP24.com that banks “will almost always” offer a chance to go back to a 30 year amortization, which is the maximum allowed.

But he said that might not make an enormous amount of difference for a homeowner whose payment is set to double, say from $2,000 to $4,000 a month.

“They (the bank) may look at it closely and find out that yeah, you are right, you’re just hopeless and you can never make the (new) payment. If that is the case they are allowed by the regulator in some cases to go to 35 years or even a 40-year amortization if there is proven financial inability to pay. But again, it doesn’t reduce the payment back to $2,000,” he said.

RATES WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER REGARDLESS OF WHEN YOU RENEW

The Bank of Canada has said that it expects inflation to return to its two per cent target in the middle of 2025. That would allow for interest rate cuts. But few industry insiders expect rates to return to the levels that they were at in 2020 and 2021 anytime soon, if ever.

“We’re never coming back to those days when people were getting rates of 1.59, 1.89, 1.99. It is gone forever,” Butler said. “So whatever rate you get is guaranteed to be higher than what you started with five years before. It will either be a little bit higher, instead of two per cent it will be three-and-a-half per cent, or it will be lot higher, like in the six per cent range. So that is the key thing to understand. It is that everyone is going to have to pay more.”

“Over the past month we’ve seen fixed rates increase by a full percentage point,” Tran added. “That’s huge”

YOU MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO SWITCH LENDERS

Many homebuyers who took out mortgages in 2020 or 2021 did so with historically low interest rates. The stress test meant that those homebuyers still had to qualify at a rate of 5.25 per cent or their contractually agreed upon rate plus two percentage points, whichever was higher. But those seeking to take out a new mortgage today or jump lenders could be stress tested at a rate in excess of eight per cent. That, says Tran, could leave many existing homebuyers with few options other than to renew with their current lender where they will be able to avoid the stress test.

“I’ve had many customers or former clients that are simply not able to take advantage of lower rates with other lenders because they can’t qualify to switch out so they are at the mercy of the current lender,” he told CP24.com. “I think a lot of the lenders know that unfortunately that these customers will have difficulty qualifying elsewhere. But it’s unfortunate because they’re not going to offer these customers the best rate possible. They’re kind of holding them hostage and just giving them a mediocre rate because they know that they have nowhere to go.”

REFINANCING COULD ALSO POSE CHALLENGES

One way that home owners could reduce the payment shock is by extending their amortization. But doing so isn’t necessarily easy, warns Tran. He says that some homebuyers won’t qualify for a new mortgage due to the stress test while others might conclude that the costs of doing so are just too onerous.

“Anytime you make a major change like that you have to go through the whole nine yards again. You have to requalify, you have to go through the stress test again, you have to potentially get an appraisal done at your cost and you have to get a lawyer involved to register a new mortgage title, also at an additional cost,” he told CP24.com.

PATIENCE IS KEY 

Butler says that his best advice to homeowners staring down an impending renewal is “not to panic.” He says that in many cases a bank might offer an early renewal with a so-called blended rate but he said taking such an offer is almost always a mistake, when it replaces a lower rate obtained prior to this recent run up in the cost of borrowing.

“Don’t give up 3.19 and take 5.1 as some kind of protection,” he said. “If you have a renewal coming up shop around, don’t blend and only start looking at it 90 days before the date of your renewal because you don’t want to give up that great rate. That just doesn’t make sense.”

 

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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