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Excessive exuberance: Canada home prices boil over as policymakers sit back

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Canadian mortgage rates

By Julie Gordon and Nichola Saminather

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canada‘s red-hot housing market has become a bonfire, spurring comparisons to earlier bubbles and prompting calls for cooling measures. But policymakers are standing back, unwilling to intervene for fear of undermining Canada‘s still-fragile economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Real estate agents say after months of end users driving sales, investors are again a factor in the market and flipping activity is picking up. In response, desperate buyers are over-extending themselves, paying tens of thousands more than originally budgeted just to get in.

While Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem in February acknowledged “some signs of excess exuberance” in the housing market, he downplayed the need for action.

“Right now the economy is weak, we’re just coming out of the second wave. I think we need the support, we need the growth we can get,” Macklem said.

The pandemic shift to working from home coupled with rock-bottom mortgage rates and government aid is driving up housing prices around the world – with suburban homes and vacation towns outperforming big cities from Australia to Europe and North America.

In Canada, the average home price jumped 22.8% in January to a record C$621,525 ($490,820). A sharp escalation since November is fueling fears that speculation and so-called FOMO, the fear of missing out, have again taken root.

 

Graphic: Home price escalation in Canada https://graphics.reuters.com/CANADA-ECONOMY/HOUSING/nmovazeolpa/chart.png

 

Toronto and Vancouver area brokers say it is starting to feel like the height of the last bubble, when regional prices were rising by as much as 6% each month.

“It’s on steroids. It really reminds me of 2017,” said Nasma Ali, a Toronto agent who sold a home last month for C$1.59 million, C$340,000 over the asking price.

In other markets, like Ottawa and the cottage towns that have boomed as white-collar workers gamble they will not be called back to the office, the frenzy is like nothing agents have ever seen before.

“If you got in four months ago, you just made C$100,000,” said Ottawa agent Judy Corriveau of entry-level homes popular with investors.

“As far as investments go, it’s a lot better than the stock market … Unless you got in on GameStop,” she said, referring to a Reddit-darling stock that skyrocketed earlier this year.

Mortgage lending has hit record levels and riskier higher-ratio borrowers now make up 23% of new uninsured loans, more than in the 2017 bubble, according to National Bank of Canada. If the flight to smaller cities reverses, a surge of homes could flood the market.

“It seems like policymakers are blowing a pretty big bubble here,” said Steve Saretsky, a Vancouver agent and analyst. “You have house prices up 20% in the midst of really high unemployment. It’s certainly not a healthy market.”

‘HEARTBREAKING’

While the Bank of Canada, like other central banks, is unlikely to raise interest rates just to cool housing, experts say policymakers could look at tax measures and tougher lending rules for investors, similar to those imposed by New Zealand’s central bank.

“A 40% equity downpayment for a rental purchase is a whole lot more of a stringent requirement than we have here. Those types of things are smart for our domestic regulators to be considering,” said Paul Taylor, chief executive of Mortgage Professionals Canada.

Taylor, who represents mortgage brokers and insurers, added that any policy should discourage investors while encouraging owner-occupants, particularly in lower-priced segments popular with first-time buyers.

Housing affordability advocates, meanwhile, are calling for tax changes to target investors and a rethink of an exemption that allows homeowners to pocket all profits from the sale of a primary residence.

But a senior government source said “now is not really the time to be ratcheting anything down,” pointing to the ongoing economic pressures.

Canada‘s residential real estate sector accounted for around 17% of GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2020 and employment in the sector that includes real estate activity was 5.4% above pre-pandemic levels, with construction jobs up 3.4%.

Broker Corriveau in Ottawa said it is “heartbreaking” to see first-time buyers struggle.

“You don’t know if there is going to be that one person who has lost 10 bidding wars and now is going to bid C$50,000 more than necessary just because they want to be done with it.”

($1 = 1.2663 Canadian dollars)

 

(Reporting by Julie Gordon in Ottawa and Nichola Saminather in Toronto; Editing by Steve Scherer and Matthew Lewis)

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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