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Exchange Tokens: Neither a Great Investment Nor a Great Market Indicator – Coindesk

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They’re definitely not equity, but could “exchange tokens” be bellwethers for one of crypto’s best use cases? (Spoiler: Probably not)

Among thousands of venture-backed startups, tokens, coins, blockchains and open-source technology projects, exchange operators now stand out among the top revenue getters in the crypto asset category. Coinbase, not the largest by trading volume even among exchanges whose trade data is trusted, reported $173 million in 2018 non-U.S. revenue, leading Reuters to estimate Coinbase’s global revenue as north of $500 million. 

If crypto has proven itself in one use case, it is as a volatile asset for investors hungry to speculate. Our estimate of exchange operators’ fee-based revenue shows this to be true. 

As such, crypto tokens issued by the exchanges themselves could be among the most useful digital assets in circulation. “Exchange tokens,” as they are called, offer holders discounts on trading fees and other benefits. This doesn’t make them anything like equity claims on exchange revenue, which several analysts have pointed out, no matter what buyback mechanisms are employed. It does make them much like the “utility tokens” issued in the initial coin offering boom of 2017 and 2018 – or like air miles – and some investors in these tokens embrace that narrative

Unlike air miles, exchange tokens trade freely on a variety of venues. As such it’s surprising that, despite the success of their issuers, the tokens themselves have not been more successful as investments. The table below shows the one-, three-, six-, nine- and 12-month returns of Binance’s BNB, Huobi’s HT, Bitfinex’s LEO and OKEx’s OKB, the four exchange tokens that make up the exchange token index provided by FTX, a derivatives exchange operator, as of Jan. 28 (data via Nomics).

The benefits to traders, however, can be significant. According to Binance’s fee schedule, the top tier of BNB token holders must today hold about $176,000 worth of the token and trade about $1.2 billion per month on the exchange (with BNB and BTC at current prices of about $16 and $8,000 respectively). For users trading in these volumes,top-tier BNB holdings provide fee discounts that would save them about $720,000 each month, off the standard trading fees – more, if these traders pay the fees themselves in the Binance token. They also provide access to “initial exchange offerings” (IEOs), a new asset issuance operated by the exchange. 

As such, BNB and other exchange tokens might be expected to serve as indicators as to the relative success of the issuing exchanges. After all, if an open market for air miles existed, you might expect one airline’s miles to trade at a premium to another’s, depending on flyers’ perceptions of their service. 

At one time, that was true of exchange tokens, but over the course of the past year it’s become less and less so. For most of these exchange tokens, the correlation between price and the issuing exchanges’ reported volume is weakening over time. (Unlike the exchanges in the revenue chart, not all these exchange token issuers’ reported volume is rated trustworthy.) 

Even as a more general metric, providing an indicator of the broad demand for crypto assets as a speculative investment, exchange tokens are a weak signal. Or, at least, they are no better than the price of bitcoin. At the same time as their prices have drifted from the reported volume of their parent exchanges, exchange tokens’ daily returns have hewed more closely to those of bitcoin itself.

It’s been 11 years since bitcoin was operational and you can make a case that speculation is the best-proven user narrative for the entire asset category. And it is a real use: not everyone in the world has access to volatile assets (and for some, perhaps no asset is volatile enough). For now, exchange tokens appear to be just another flavor of that volatility. Their price movements don’t yet support thinking of exchange tokens as a meaningful innovation in use or ownership. 

Disclosure Read More

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

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Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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