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Economy

Expect a ‘bumpy landing’ for the economy in 2024—and a ‘very bullish’ year for stocks, strategists say

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No economist or market watcher has a crystal ball. So when it comes to making predictions for the year ahead, many take a conservative stance, making their bull or bear case with a litany of caveats.

Over the past couple of years, though, investors have been anything but wishy-washy. In 2022, as the Federal Reserve introduced an unprecedented interest rate hiking regime in an attempt to control sky-high inflation, investors sold out of stocks, resulting in an 18% decline in the S&P 500 index.

This year has been far rosier for markets. Slowing inflation has allowed the Fed to take its foot off the gas, an encouraging sign that the central bank may be able to engineer a so-called “soft landing” — slowing the economy down enough to cool inflation without tipping it into a recession. Investors responded by boosting the S&P by some 25% this year with just under two weeks left to go.

What do the market soothsayers say about the year ahead?

With the Fed expected to cut interest rates in 2024, many predict a strong year for the economy and the stock market, but some are more enthusiastic than others.

Don’t expect a recession, but don’t expect things to go completely smoothly, says Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco. She’s calling for a “bumpy landing.”

“That’s recognizing that in a soft landing, there’s no real damage. I think there will be some damage to the economy,” she says. “It’s hard not to have some damage,” she adds, given how much and how quickly interest rates have risen.

Nevertheless, she eventually expects markets and the economy to bounce upward in 2024, a sentiment shared by Jay Hatfield, CEO of investment firm Infrastructure Capital Advisors.

Recent economic data “validates our theory that 2024 will be the year of rate cuts, and that’s very bullish for stocks,” he says. A decline in rates worldwide should spell a good year for markets and less of a possibility of a recession, he says. “So we’re as bulled up as we’re ever going to be, probably.”

The possible shape of a bull market in 2023

The current economy isn’t exactly the picture of health. Persistent inflation has put a strain on consumer budgets. “We’re already seeing that consumers are being more selective with their purchases. That’s come through on a lot of earnings calls,” says Hooper.

Hooper also notes a pickup in bankruptcies in 2023 versus 2022, a trend she can see extending into next year. “We’ll likely see some companies, particularly smaller ones, that have difficulty obtaining financing,” she says.

We may also see a slight increase in unemployment as businesses continue to digest the Fed’s rate regime — a move which tends to have a lagging effect on the economy, Hooper says.

These are all “very natural” parts of what happens when the Fed ramps up interest rates the way they did, she says. She expects any economic slowdown in early 2024 to be “relatively brief” with “some real acceleration and growth in the back half of the year.”

One factor bolstering Hatfield’s view that there’s no recession on the horizon: the housing market. “Nearly every recession since WWII has been characterized by a housing crash, but here we have a shortage of housing,” Hatfield says. “So the chance of a recession is remote in our opinion.”

In short, Hatfield expects lower interest rates to make it easier for companies worldwide to receive financing and do business. Mixed with a resilient U.S. economy and a continuing boom in artificial intelligence, markets are likely to find themselves on an upward trajectory in 2024, he says.

How to invest in 2024

Financial advisors generally caution against making any wholesale changes to your portfolio based on anticipated short-term moves in the market. It could be a time, however, to rebalance your portfolio by trimming some cash from your winningest positions and adding to some laggards.

Hatfield expects a particularly big year for stocks in the real estate and financial sectors, both of which had rough years in 2022 and haven’t bounced back quite as high as the broad market so far in 2023.

Likewise, Hooper says rebalancing could shift some of your assets out of large, fast-growing U.S. companies and into areas she sees as likely beneficiaries of a broad-based economic acceleration, such as smaller-company stocks and names from emerging markets.

But for younger investors especially, trying to figure out what will happen in the market in the upcoming year is far less important than internalizing the lessons of market history and sticking to your long-term plans, says Hooper.

“It’s hard to know what will happen. When we started 2022, the Fed didn’t expect to hike rates, and we weren’t prepared for the kind of annus horribilis it turned out to be,” she says. “We’ve had a nice recovery in 2023. Hopefully that serves as a reminder to readers that it’s important to stay the course.”

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Business

A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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