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Experts sees optimistic real estate market in Canada for rest of 2021 – The Suburban Newspaper

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There’s a very optimistic outlook regarding the Canadian real estate market for the rest of 2021, experts told a CBRE webinar Thursday afternoon.

CBRE is a commercial real estate services and investment firm. The webinar Canadian Real Estate Update 2021 was hosted by organization president and CEO Werner Dietl, and featured CBRE Ltd. vice-chairman Paul Morassutti and Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist of CIBC World Markets Inc.

An introduction to the webinar points out that “inflation could be a key factor for investors, businesses and individuals for the first time in decades. Hard assets continue to act as a hedge against financial market fluctuations while businesses building out and renting space face rising costs.”

Regarding the real estate market for the rest of the year, “in virtually every sector that we see, the mood is just undeniably optimistic, that’s right across the board,” said Morassutti. “If you use REIT (real estate investment trusts) as a proxy, the TSX REIT index was down, I believe, 13 percent in 2020 and this year it’s up 25 percent. The Dow Jones REIT index is up 25 percent this year, so net asset values have not moved at that pace, they’ve only moved moderately, but the momentum is absolutely going in the right direction. If you look at the property level, fundamentals in virtually every sector in Canada are improving, everyone is looking forward to the second half of the year.

“On the capital market side, for investment activity, we had one of the strongest first [half of the year] we’ve had in the last five years, and it looks at this point that we are tracking towards a year that might be one of the best that we’ve had. That’s pretty remarkable. When you look at the totality of the market, notwithstanding the fact there are still some issues out there, in general, the mood is just incredibly strong. The entire market believes the third and fourth quarters of 2021 will be even better.”

Tal says he also envisions good news.

“The second half of the year is going to be on fire,” he added. “We know that because there is so much pent up demand and we are opening up. We are sitting on a mountain of cash…. We wake up and realize that Canadian households are sitting on no less than $100 billion of excess cash…. This will generate a significant acceleration of economic activity in Canada.”

Regarding inflation in the coming months, Tal said: “Inflation is there, but the Bank of Canada is telling us that whatever we see is short lived, but nobody knows.”

He added that on a monthly basis, prices are rising higher than expected.

“That could be short lived, but there is a risk it could be more than that, and that’s the key risk facing commercial real estate. You see, the issue is not inflation… The risk we are facing is that the Fed or the Bank of Canada will wait until the inflation goes down, and it doesn’t, and when it doesn’t, we will realize we’re behind the curve… and what do you do when you chase a lagging indicator? You raise interest rates very quickly to catch it. The history of real estate crashes is the history of central bankers overshooting. The earlier the Fed and the Bank of Canada move, the better.”

CBRE also provided The Suburban with a summary of Montreal industrial second quarter activity.

“Industrial continues to be the most coveted asset class,” the summary says. “The average net asking lease rates climbed to an average of $8.24 per square foot. Over three years, they have surged 44 percent. In addition, a record of 4.5 million square feet is now under construction in the metropolitan area, almost two-thirds of which is already leased.

As well, “availability rates have dropped to 1.4 percent in Q2 from 1.9 percent just three months earlier with industries such as e-commerce, food and beverage driving the highest demand.

“Midtown (the St. Laurent-Côte des Neiges-NDG Decarie Blvd. area) currently holds the highest availability rate of 2.5 percent, up from 2.1 percent in Q1, while the North Shore and Laval have fallen below one per cent (0.2 percent and 0.3 percent respectively, down from 1.6 percent and 1.3 percent in Q1).”

The summary concludes that “experts suggest that such low rates may soon push companies to consider building industrial facilities farther and farther from the city centre. CBRE forecasts that industrial will continue its strong performance and that off-island sub markets will continue to grow as availability rates shrink.”

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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