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Extend wage subsidy program, not individual response benefits – The Globe and Mail

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Part of a cheque for the $2,000 Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB), a taxable award from the Canadian government, is photographed in Toronto, on April 16, 2020.

CHRIS HELGREN/Reuters

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a sharp contraction to economic activity in Canada. The halt to non-essential activity and physical-distancing measures imposed over March and April were required to slow the spread of the virus, avoid a health care crisis and mitigate the impact on the health of Canadians.

But these measures have left the economy and the labour market operating far below normal levels. Policy makers and business leaders must now deal with a problem they have never faced – how to restore the economy while holding the number of COVID-19 cases at bay.

The normal stabilizers that exist in our economy were not built to withstand its unprecedented seizure. This extraordinary situation called for an equally unparalleled government response.

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The two most important features of the federal government’s support response are the Canadian Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) and the Canadian Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS). The CERB transfers $2,000 a month directly to individuals and applies to anyone who has lost their employment due to the COVID-19 shutdown. The CEWS is a subsidy to employers that covers 75 per cent of employees’ wages, topped at $847 per employee, provided the company experienced a substantial drop in revenues.

Roughly three million Canadians lost employment in March and April, and millions more worked only reduced hours. According to the federal government, over less than a three-month period from mid-March to June 4, $43.51-billion was paid out from the CERB. The program has been widely praised for its efficiency in getting income quickly to individuals who need it to cover expenses during the crisis.

In May, Canada entered a recovery phase and national employment increased by 296,000. While this is only a tenth of what has been lost, all provincial and territorial economies are indeed in the process of slowly reopening for business.

But for the recovery to become firmly entrenched, companies will need access to workers as capacity ramps up. The CERB as a disincentive for workers to re-enter the labour force is a real risk. Currently, at $2,000 a month, the CERB is equivalent to an average hourly wage of just less than $15 for an average 33-hour work week – well above the minimum wage in most Canadian jurisdictions.

The resulting incentive for workers, particularly those in lower-wage occupations, is to not return to work as the market opens. Keep in mind that less than six months ago, the Canadian economy registered more than 560,000 unfilled positions, or 3.3 per cent of total labour demand.

Accommodations and food services, as well as retail trade, are two sectors that pay lower wages and have been severely affected by the pandemic. In fact, they accounted for more than a quarter of these job vacancies. Employers of all types are already anecdotally facing labour shortages in a period of record levels of unemployment.

Additionally, the effects of operating a business while the novel coronavirus remains a risk is a costly challenge. New health and safety regulations means that many businesses will have to operate well below capacity while those same regulations are more labour intensive. The result is lower revenues and higher costs – a situation that will endure until a treatment or vaccine is found and distributed, possibly taking up to a year or more. In the interim, what support measures can best help lay a path to full recovery?

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The CEWS is key to helping business deal with the high costs of running a business while COVID-19 is still a threat. The program has received little uptake so far because businesses are just starting to reopen and because companies have been struggling to interpret whether they qualify.

The federal government initially slated $74-billion for the CEWS but that amount was reduced to $45-billion, despite the program’s extension into August. Yet use of the program will grow, and additional support will be necessary. The CEWS should be extended well beyond August, especially for those industries where a return to normal is much further down the road. Moreover, qualification rules, especially for companies with foreign affiliate sales, need to be clarified.

Shifting funding away from the CERB and into the CEWS would be a good strategy to help lift consumer and business confidence and accelerate the recovery. It will give Canadians an incentive to return to work, and employers the certainty that assistance is available to them until the economy returns to normal.

The CEWS is key to helping many businesses operate and hire in a high-cost environment. And hiring will boost household confidence and spending – creating a virtuous cycle in redressing the economy. Going forward, policy measures must now focus on encouraging businesses to open. We need to move workers off the CERB and back into employment.

Pedro Antunes is the chief economist at the Conference Board of Canada.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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