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Family grocery bill will go up $702 next year, researcher warns

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University of Guelph researchers used AI technology to predict the rising costs of groceries for 2024.

The latest edition of Canada’s Food Price Report found food prices could rise from 2.5 to 4.5 per cent next year, said a press release from the U of G. The increase is less than what was predicted for 2023, which was an increase of five to seven per cent.

This means for a family of four it would be an increase of $701.79.

This may not be “the news some people were hoping for. I think some people are really hoping for food price decreases,” said Kristina Kupferschmidt, U of G PhD student and contributor to the report, in an interview.

The report was a collaboration between the U of G’s Arrell Food Institute, the Vector Institute in Toronto and Dalhousie’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab.

Things contributing to food prices are complex and food categories have many moving parts, Kupferschmidt said.

Her research is around the interaction of “real people using AI to make decisions,” she said.

Transformer-based machine learning models in the same vein as ChatGPT were used to predict and combine models to get an accurate reading, said the release.

Kupferschmidt thinks the report does a nice job of highlighting a good example that AI can be used collaboratively to enhance experts, rather than replace them.

This method had a notable increase of accuracy as it was being tested, she said.

Climate, geopolitical factors, employment rates and the economy were elements used to help the research team with price predictions.

Using these factors, data, and machine learning the team presented different variables to U of G food economists to predict what food costs could be next year, said Kupferschmidt.

Canadians spent less on food and beverage by 3.26 per cent in 2023, said in the release. It suggested people may have reduced the quality of the food they purchased or reduced the amount they bought.

Kuperschmidt said bakery, meat and vegetables could all increase in price next year.

She put an emphasis on climate impacting food prices. In 2023 there were wildfires, droughts and floods, she said.

Capturing climate change in the report using U of G’s model and other universities’ models in the report was important, she said.

Grocers are experiencing higher costs in transportation, Kuperschmidt said.

The release emphasized Canada had the third lowest food inflation rate of the G7 countries.

“It’s complicated, but it does seem like … the data is not currently aligning with this idea that profiteering is happening,” she said.

There’s this culture of distrust where people feel like they are being taken advantage of, said Kuperschmidt.

“They’re going to have to do more to try and make things more transparent regarding changes in pricing,” she said.

“So predicting things can be very hard. We’re living in a changing world and data can only tell us  half the story. Data can only tell us what’s happened before and now we’re kind of seeing things we’ve never seen before.”

 

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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