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Family grocery bill will go up $702 next year, researcher warns

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University of Guelph researchers used AI technology to predict the rising costs of groceries for 2024.

The latest edition of Canada’s Food Price Report found food prices could rise from 2.5 to 4.5 per cent next year, said a press release from the U of G. The increase is less than what was predicted for 2023, which was an increase of five to seven per cent.

This means for a family of four it would be an increase of $701.79.

This may not be “the news some people were hoping for. I think some people are really hoping for food price decreases,” said Kristina Kupferschmidt, U of G PhD student and contributor to the report, in an interview.

The report was a collaboration between the U of G’s Arrell Food Institute, the Vector Institute in Toronto and Dalhousie’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab.

Things contributing to food prices are complex and food categories have many moving parts, Kupferschmidt said.

Her research is around the interaction of “real people using AI to make decisions,” she said.

Transformer-based machine learning models in the same vein as ChatGPT were used to predict and combine models to get an accurate reading, said the release.

Kupferschmidt thinks the report does a nice job of highlighting a good example that AI can be used collaboratively to enhance experts, rather than replace them.

This method had a notable increase of accuracy as it was being tested, she said.

Climate, geopolitical factors, employment rates and the economy were elements used to help the research team with price predictions.

Using these factors, data, and machine learning the team presented different variables to U of G food economists to predict what food costs could be next year, said Kupferschmidt.

Canadians spent less on food and beverage by 3.26 per cent in 2023, said in the release. It suggested people may have reduced the quality of the food they purchased or reduced the amount they bought.

Kuperschmidt said bakery, meat and vegetables could all increase in price next year.

She put an emphasis on climate impacting food prices. In 2023 there were wildfires, droughts and floods, she said.

Capturing climate change in the report using U of G’s model and other universities’ models in the report was important, she said.

Grocers are experiencing higher costs in transportation, Kuperschmidt said.

The release emphasized Canada had the third lowest food inflation rate of the G7 countries.

“It’s complicated, but it does seem like … the data is not currently aligning with this idea that profiteering is happening,” she said.

There’s this culture of distrust where people feel like they are being taken advantage of, said Kuperschmidt.

“They’re going to have to do more to try and make things more transparent regarding changes in pricing,” she said.

“So predicting things can be very hard. We’re living in a changing world and data can only tell us  half the story. Data can only tell us what’s happened before and now we’re kind of seeing things we’ve never seen before.”

 

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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