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Faster U.K. economy growth gives boost to new Labour government

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The Bank of England in London. on Nov. 1, 2017.DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS/Getty Images

Britain’s economy grew more quickly than expected in May, providing some momentum for the new government of Prime Minister Keir Starmer but adding to doubts about whether the Bank of England will cut interest rates next month.

Economic output increased by 0.4% in May, after a 0.2% rise in April, the Office for National Statistics said. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to another 0.2% monthly increase.

The strength of the upturn could dissuade the BoE from beginning to cut interest rates as soon as Aug. 1, its next scheduled monetary policy announcement date. Three policy-makers this week emphasized the strength of domestic price pressures.

The chance of a rate cut in three weeks’ time fell below 50% on the futures markets from just above 50% on Wednesday.

May saw a broad-based increase in economic output, with the services, manufacturing and construction industries all growing and the latter up by 1.9% on the month, driven by house-building.

The figures represented an early boost for the new Labour administration, which has set itself the aim of achieving the fastest growth among the Group of Seven advanced economies on a sustained basis.

“The improving economic outlook suggests the government may benefit from the economic recovery being stronger than most forecasters anticipate,” Ashley Webb, an economist with consultancy Capital Economics, said.

Britain’s economy appears to have snapped out of its low-growth rut, at least for now. Output has grown by 1.5% since the turn of the year, marking its best five months since early 2017, excluding the rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Goldman Sachs on Thursday nudged up its growth forecast for 2024 to 1.2% from 1.1%.

Still, the longer-run picture remains weak, with the economy only 2.7% larger than its pre-pandemic level of late 2019.

According to the latest quarterly data, only Germany has fared worse since the pandemic.

Over the three months to May, the economy expanded by 0.9%, the strongest reading since the three months to January 2022, compared with the consensus forecast for a 0.7% expansion.

The BoE said last month it expected the economy would grow by 0.5% over the second quarter – something that now looks likely to prove too low.

“These GDP figures may make an August rate cut less likely by providing those rate setters who are concerned about underlying price pressures with sufficient confidence about the UK’s economic recovery to continue putting off loosening policy,” Suren Thiru, economics director at accountancy body ICAEW, said.

Separate ONS data showed Britain’s overall trade deficit, excluding precious metals, narrowed to 3.2 billion pounds ($4.1 billion) in May from 4.7 billion pounds in April.

But goods exports to the European Union fell to their lowest since January 2022, when Brexit customs checks were introduced, and consistent with levels seen during the late 1990s.

Starmer has said he wants to reduce trade frictions with the EU but he will not agree to joining the bloc’s single market.

 

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Vladimir Putin is in a painful economic bind – The Economist

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Vladimir Putin is in a painful economic bind  The Economist

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Economy

Which items will be tax-free under the Liberals’ promised GST/HST break?

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The government on Thursday announced a sweeping promise to make groceries, children’s clothing, Christmas trees, restaurant meals and more free from GST/HST between Dec. 14 and Feb. 15.

“Our government can’t set prices at checkout, but we can put more money in people’s pockets,” Trudeau said at a press conference announcing the measures.

The government says removing GST from these goods for a two-month period would save $100 for a family that spends $2,000 on those goods during that time. For those in provinces with HST, a family spending $2,000 would save $260.

Thursday’s announcement also included a rebate for Canadians who worked in 2023 and made less than $150,000, totalling $250 per person.

Here are the items that will be GST/HST-free if the Liberals’ legislation passes.

Groceries

Many grocery items are already tax-free. The Canada Revenue Agency considers most food and beverages to be “basic” grocery items, such as produce, bread, cereal, canned and frozen food, eggs, coffee, milk, and meat.

However, certain categories, like carbonated drinks, candies and snack foods, are taxed.

The government’s tax break will apply to certain items that normally are subject to tax.

These include prepared foods such as vegetable trays and pre-made meals, as well as snacks such as chips, candy and granola bars.

Carbonated beverages, water bottles fruit juices and juice crystals are included, as are ice cream products and baked desserts like cakes and pies.

The government says its tax break will mean “essentially all food” will be GST/HST-free.

Alcohol

The tax break will also apply to alcoholic beverages below seven per cent alcohol by volume, including beer, wine, cider, and pre-mixed drinks.

Normally, all alcoholic drinks are taxed.

Restaurants

Restaurant meals will also be subject to the tax break. It will apply whether you’re dining in, taking food to go, or ordering delivery.

Children’s items

Children’s clothing, including baby bibs, socks, hats and footwear, will qualify for the tax break. So will children’s diapers and car seats.

Children’s footwear and clothing used exclusively for sports or recreational activities will not be included in the tax break. This includes costumes.

Children’s toys will be included in the tax break as long as they’re designed for use by children under 14 years old. These could include board games, dolls, card games, Lego, Plasticine and teddy bears.

Printed goods

Print newspapers will be included in the tax break, but electronic or digital publications will not.

Most flyers, magazines, inserts and periodicals will be excluded.

Printed books will be included in the tax break, including religious scripture. Audio books where 90 per cent or more of the recording is a reading of a printed book are included.

Printed items that aren’t subject to the tax break include magazines where advertisements take up more than five per cent of total printed space, sales catalogues and brochures, books designed for writing on, event programs, agendas and directories.

Other

Christmas trees, natural or artificial, will be included in the tax break.

Puzzles and video game consoles are also included.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 21, 2024.

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In Russia's War Economy, The Warning Lights Are Blinking – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

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In Russia’s War Economy, The Warning Lights Are Blinking  Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

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