Sign for the REIT Federal Realty Investment Trust on Santana Row in the Silicon Valley, San Jose, … [+] California, December 14, 2019. (Photo by Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images)
Gado via Getty Images
We believe that Federal Realty Investment Trust stock (NYSE: FRT) has an upside potential of 40% in 1-1.5 years, once the consumer demand improves and the retail sales recovers to the pre-Covid level. FRT trades at $90 currently and it has lost 30% in value year-to-date. It traded at a pre-Covid high of $126 in February and is 28% below that level now. Also, FRT stock has gained 35% from the lows of $67 seen in March 2020, after the multi-billion dollar stimulus package announced by the U.S. government which has helped the stock market recover to a large extent. The stock is lagging the broader markets (S&P 500 is up about 65% since the March bottom), as investors are concerned about a drop in the rent collections rate of Federal Realty Investment Trust.
The company owns a portfolio of commercial properties near densely populated areas with affluent communities – where retail demand exceeds supply. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdown restrictions, retail businesses have suffered significant losses, leading to a drop in FRT’s rent collection rate. The same was evident from FRT’s cumulative revenues for the first three quarters – down 12% y-o-y. That said, its carefully selected properties at highly desirable locations are likely to ensure higher demand for its retail assets. Further, most of them are open-air facilities, which are considered comparatively safer than malls. Despite some growth in FRT stock since late March, we believe that the stock has room for growth in the near future provided there is no sudden uptick in the Covid-19 cases leading to further lockdown restrictions. Our conclusion is based on our detailed analysis ofFederal Realty Investment Trust’s stock performance during the current crisis with that during the 2008 recession in an interactive dashboard analysis.
2020 Coronavirus Crisis
12/12/2019: Coronavirus cases first reported in China
1/31/2020: WHO declares a global health emergency.
2/19/2020: Signs of effective containment in China and hopes of monetary easing by major central banks helps S&P 500 reach a record high
3/23/2020: S&P 500 drops 34% from the peak level seen on Feb 19, as Covid-19 cases accelerate outside China. Doesn’t help that oil prices crash in mid-March amid Saudi-led price war
From 3/24/2020: S&P 500 recovers 64% from the lows seen on Mar 23, as the Fed’s multi-billion dollar stimulus package suppresses near-term survival anxiety and infuses liquidity into the system.
In contrast, here’s how FRT and the broader market performed during the 2007/2008 crisis.
3/1/2009: Approximate bottoming out of the S&P 500 index
1/1/2010: Initial recovery to levels before the accelerated decline (around 9/1/2008)
Federal Realty Investment Trust vs S&P 500 Performance Over 2007-08 Financial Crisis
FRT stock declined from levels of around $91 in October 2007 (the pre-crisis peak) to roughly $41 in March 2009 (as the markets bottomed out), implying that the stock lost as much as 55% of its value from its approximate pre-crisis peak. This marked a slightly sharper drop than the broader S&P, which fell by about 51%.
However, FRT recovered strongly post the 2008 crisis to about $68 in early 2010 – rising by 65% between March 2009 and January 2010. In comparison, the S&P bounced back by about 48% over the same period.
Federal Realty Investment Trust’s Fundamentals in Recent Years Looked Strong
Federal Realty Investment Trust revenues grew 26% from $744 million in 2015 to $935.8 million in 2019. Similarly, the company’s adjusted net income increased from $209.7 million to $345.8 million over the same period. The company’s Q3 2020 revenues were 11% below the year-ago period due to lower rental income. On the same note, its EPS figure decreased from $0.84 to -$0.41 mainly driven by an impairment charge of $57 million.
Does Federal Realty Investment Trust Have A Sufficient Cash Cushion To Meet Its Obligations Through The Coronavirus Crisis?
Federal Realty Investment Trust’s total debt increased from $2.7 billion in 2016 to $4.5 billion at the end of Q3 2020, while its total cash increased from $23.4 million to around $863.3 million over the same period. The company generated around $268.4 million in cash from its operations in the first nine months of 2020, and if its cash situation further worsens, it might be difficult for the company to weather the crisis.
CONCLUSION
Phases of Covid-19 crisis:
Early- to mid-March 2020: Fear of the coronavirus outbreak spreading rapidly translates into reality, with the number of cases accelerating globally
Late-March 2020 onward: Social distancing measures + lockdowns
April 2020: Fed stimulus suppresses near-term survival anxiety
May-June 2020: Recovery of demand, with the gradual lifting of lockdowns – no panic anymore despite a steady increase in the number of cases
July-October 2020: Weak Q2 and Q3 results, but continued improvement in demand and progress with vaccine development buoy market sentiment.
Keeping in mind the trajectory over 2009-10, this suggests a potential recovery to around $126 (40% upside) once economic conditions begin to show signs of improving, provided its debt condition doesn’t deteriorate any further. This marks a full recovery to the $126 level Federal Realty Investment Trust’s stock was at before the coronavirus outbreak gained global momentum.
Trefis
What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s ahigh quality portfolio to beat the market, with over 100% return since 2016, versus 55% for the S&P 500. Comprised of companies with strong revenue growth, healthy profits, lots of cash, and low risk, it has outperformed the broader market year after year, consistently.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
Losing a loved one is never easy, and the legal steps that follow can add even more stress to an already difficult time.
For years, families in Vancouver (and Canada in general) have struggled with a complex probate process—filled with paperwork and legal challenges.
Thankfully, recent changes to Canada’s probate laws aim to make this process simpler and easier to navigate.
Let’s unearth how these updates can simplify the process for you and your family.
What is probate?
Probate might sound complicated, but it’s simply the legal process of settling someone’s estate after death.
Here’s how it works.
Validating the will. The court checks if the will is legal and valid.
Appointing an executor. If named in the will, the executor manages the estate. If not, the court appoints someone.
Settling debts and taxes. The executor (and you) pays debts and taxes before anything can be given.
Distributing the estate. Once everything is settled, the executor distributes the remaining assets according to the will or legal rules.
Probate ensures everything is done by the book, giving you peace of mind during a difficult time.
Recent Changes in Canadian Probate Laws
Several updates to probate law in the country are making the process smoother for you and your family.
Here’s a closer look at the fundamental changes that are making a real difference.
1) Virtual witnessing of wills
Now permanent in many provinces, including British Columbia, wills can be signed and witnessed remotely through video calls.
Such a change makes estate planning more accessible, especially for those in remote areas or with limited mobility.
2) Simplified process for small estates
Smaller estates, like those under 25,000 CAD in BC, now have a faster, simplified probate process.
Fewer forms and legal steps mean less hassle for families handling modest estates.
3) Substantial compliance for wills
Courts can now approve wills with minor errors if they reflect the person’s true intentions.
This update prevents unnecessary legal challenges and ensures the deceased’s wishes are respected.
These changes help make probate less stressful and more efficient for you and other families across Canada.
The Probate Process and You: The Role of a Probate Lawyer
(Image: Freepik.com)
Working with a probate lawyer in Vancouver can significantly simplify the probate process, especially given the city’s complex legal landscape.
Here’s how they can help.
Navigating the legal process
Probate lawyers ensure all legal steps are followed, preventing costly mistakes and ensuring the estate is managed properly.
Handling paperwork and deadlines
They manage all the paperwork and court deadlines, taking the burden off of you during this difficult time.
Resolving disputes
If conflicts arise, probate lawyers resolve them, avoiding legal battles.
Providing you peace of mind
With a probate lawyer’s expertise, you can trust that the estate is being handled efficiently and according to the law.
With a skilled probate lawyer, you can ensure the entire process is smooth and stress-free.
Why These Changes Matter
The updates to probate law make a big difference for Canadian families. Here’s why.
Less stress for you. Simplified processes mean you can focus on grieving, not paperwork.
Faster estate settlements. Estates are settled more quickly, so beneficiaries don’t face long delays.
Fewer disputes. Courts can now honor will with minor errors, reducing family conflicts.
Accessible for everyone. Virtual witnessing and easier rules for small estates make probate more accessible for everyone, no matter where you live.
With these changes, probate becomes smoother and more manageable for you and your family.
How to Prepare for the Probate Process
Even with the recent changes, being prepared makes probate smoother. Here are a few steps to help you prepare.
Create a will. Ensure a valid will is in place to avoid complications.
Choose an executor. Pick someone responsible for managing the estate and discuss their role with them.
Organize documents. Keep key financial and legal documents in one place for easy access.
Talk to your family. Have open conversations with your family to prevent future misunderstandings.
Get legal advice. Consult with a probate lawyer to ensure everything is legally sound and up-to-date.
These simple steps make the probate process easier for everyone involved.
Wrapping Up: Making Probate Easier in Vancouver
Recent updates in probate law are simplifying the process for families, from virtual witnessing to easier estate rules. These reforms are designed to ease the burden, helping you focus on what matters—grieving and respecting your dead loved ones’ final wishes.
Despite these changes, it’s best to consult a probate lawyer to ensure you can manage everything properly. Remember, they’re here to help you during this difficult time.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.
The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.
