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Firms hold off investment due to Tory turmoil

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There is good news and bad news for the government this morning.

The good news is that the financial markets have not taken further fright at the extraordinary political scenes of discord and chaos in the UK’s governing party.

As Tony Danker of the CBI business lobby group said to me last week, “market stability is a pre-requisite for business investment – nothing happens if the government’s borrowing costs (which affect all borrowing costs) are soaring”.

Government bond yields (the interest rate the government has to pay to borrow) were stable this morning and are half a percent below the level seen in the aftermath of the disastrous mini-budget.

There is a striking consensus among business leaders and owners in their appreciation of the calming influence of the new Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt.

“He’s started well,” said one. “I don’t care who is PM as long as they don’t mess with Hunt,” said another. “Either we have a new prime minister with Hunt as chancellor or another chancellor with Hunt as PM,” said another.

They appreciate that the reverse-budget he delivered has reduced what is openly called “the moron premium” that the UK government, and therefore everyone else, has to pay to borrow.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that stability is necessary for investment, but it is not sufficient.

“The UK is uninvestable right now,” according to the head of the UK subsidiary of an international company.

Another boss told me: “We need to see what incentives to invest there will be in the government’s new plan and where the OBR ends up,” a reference to the independent analysis of the Office for Budget Responsibility watchdog that usually accompanies big economic policy decisions and which was so glaringly absent from the recent mini-budget.

The other bad news is that there is little confidence that the Conservative Party will be able to agree on what the climate for investment will look like.

Key issues such as planning reform and immigration policy are big factors when businesses are choosing to invest and the Conservatives seem riven with the kind of conflict that produced the chaotic scenes over a vote to ban fracking cunningly tabled by the Labour Party.

Immigration is a particularly sensitive one for business and the Tory party in a post-Brexit world.

As one (Brexit-voting as it happens) UK chief executive said to me: “I can see why you would want to control immigration, but that doesn’t mean having a pathological hatred of it with totally arbitrary targets.

“I can see why you might want the freedom to change some regulation or diverge in some areas but not an obsession to deregulate or diverge for its own sake – that makes life harder for business not easier.”

Many business leaders fear that there is no one unity candidate who can get everyone in the same tent. The frackers and the anti-frackers, the planning looseners and the nimbys, the fans of a hard line on the numbers of foreign workers and those who recognise it is very hard to grow an economy unless you have the workers to do the additional work.

The last text on my phone last night said: “They need to find a unity candidate, back them or hold a general election very soon.”

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Investment

Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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