Disillusioned by decades of financial crises, Argentinian voters surprised pollsters by electing Javier Milei as president last November. While the far-right libertarian, who promised painful shock therapy to fix the country’s ailing economy and has now been in office for 100 days, did achieve some early successes, he has struggled to implement the most far-reaching parts of his reforms.
Amid growing social tensions, the president is struggling to overcome hostile lawmakers to enact his radical austerity agenda.
“I want you to understand that Argentina is in a critical situation,” Milei said hours after being elected. “The changes our country needs are drastic. There is no room for gradualism.”
When Milei assumed office, inflation was hovering at 143 percent, poverty tallied at 40 percent and the government owed $110bn to external creditors. In part, his election was a rebuke of the ruling Peronist establishment, which had dominated politics in Argentina since 1983.
Days after his inauguration, the former TV pundit began implementing his radical plan – he devalued the peso by 50 percent, slashed state subsidies for fuel and reduced the number of ministries by half.
Though Milei has rowed back on campaign pledges to dollarise the economy and abolish the central bank, his initial moves have been welcomed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In January, the IMF signalled its support by disbursing $4.7bn in loans.
Argentina’s tilt to the hard right has also buoyed financial markets. Immediately after Milei’s election, Argentina’s international bonds maturing in 2041 rallied by seven percent. Rising bond prices typically reflect growing investor confidence in a country’s economic policies.
Critics, meanwhile, fear that President Milei’s broad-based austerity programme could trigger mass unemployment and tip the economy into an unpredictable and potentially turbulent future.
Emergency decree
On December 20, Milei issued an emergency decree aimed at amplifying his deregulation push from the previous week.
The mandate – which can only be used under “exceptional circumstances” – allows Milei to bypass Congress, where his party La Libertad Avanza holds just 38 of 257 seats (and seven of 72 seats in the Senate). As in the United States, legislation proceeds from the lower to the upper house.
The decree altered, or scrapped, 366 laws with the aim of privatising the country’s state-owned enterprises including an airline, media companies and the energy group YPF. The measures also pared back regulations on healthcare, housing and land ownership.
Elsewhere, the edict stripped away workers’ rights by, among other things, reducing maternity leave pay and severance compensation. It also allowed companies to dismiss workers participating in strike action.
Newly sworn-in President Javier Milei’s reforms have sparked protests [File: Rodrigo Abd/AP Photo]
The decree immediately sparked protests, and following an appeal from Argentina’s umbrella union, the General Confederation of Labour (CGT), a court suspended Milei’s worker reforms. On January 30, the court deemed Milei’s reforms “unconstitutional”.
“That was a loss for the government,” said Matias Vernengo, a former official at the Central Bank of Argentina. “Labour reform is a big issue for Milei.”
Then, on March 14, Argentina’s Senate voted to reject the emergency decree in a further blow to the president.
Many centrist lawmakers argued that Milei must present his deregulation reforms as bills in Congress. His plan’s survival now depends on negotiations with opposition representatives in Argentina’s lower house.
“I don’t think he’ll be able to convince Congress,” Vernengo said. “This will be problematic, as the public’s tolerance will depend on whether Milei can generate growth. That is the oxygen he needs to keep going. Having policies held up by lawmakers doesn’t look good.”
Reform bill
Days after he announced his emergency decree, Milei circulated a reform bill, known as the omnibus, to Congress on December 22. It proposed changes to four key areas of policy – tax, penal, electoral and the party system – which presidents cannot affect by decree.
In addition to spending cuts aimed at eliminating the deficit by the end of 2024, the bill sought to scrap proportional representation in Congress. It also proposed to cede legislative power to the president in areas such as energy and fiscal policy until 2025.
In opposition to what some viewed as power-grabbing measures, Argentinian workers, coordinated by the CGT, went on a general strike. Coming just 45 days after the president took office, it was the fastest strike action of its kind in Argentine history. Following days of tense debate, Congress approved a watered-down version of the omnibus bill on February 2, paving the way for a decisive vote in the Senate, where the legislation was set to undergo further changes.
Negotiations finally proved unsuccessful, however, after key measures were rejected by the ruling coalition. An embattled Milei went so far as to withdraw the bill on February 6, nullifying the vote from days earlier.
Rather than see his bill “shredded”, Milei told the Financial Times, he has chosen to wait until mid-term elections in late 2025, when he will try again with a new package. In the meantime, “there are other reforms which we can do by decree [without Congress]”, he said.
According to Graham Stock, an emerging markets sovereign debt strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, Milei looks set to rely on executive powers – as opposed to congressional consent – to try and implement his radical austerity plan.
“The executive has a lot of control over the expenditure side of the budget, including on discretionary transfers to the provinces, which have already been cut to force the governors to the negotiating table,” he said.
Skyrocketing inflation, poverty and tension among workers and unions have provoked high numbers of strikes and protests in recent weeks [File: Juan Mabromata/AFP]
Milei blamed regional governors for not backing his omnibus bill. In turn, he hit them with austerity, cutting a subsidy that provincial leaders use to keep public transportation costs down.
Stock told Al Jazeera that Milei “is now trying a different route to congressional majority”, by engaging in a fiscal tug-of-war with Argentina’s governors, who wield considerable influence over state representatives.
Still, questions remain over Milei’s ability to form an awkward pact with the country’s governors, many of whom are loyal Peronists. For Stock, “there is a path to a successful stabilisation and recovery of the Argentine economy, but it’s a narrow one”.
Analysts were caught by surprise after the government eked out Argentina’s first budget surplus in 12 years at the start of 2024. That was achieved by reducing payments to provinces, freezing budgets and not matching social spending fully for inflation.
Waiting game
According to Eduardo Barcesat, a professor of law at the University of Buenos Aires, Milei’s choice to attack the governors could backfire. “By taking a confrontational stance with governors, he’s made his position even weaker in Congress, especially with centrist legislators.”
Over the coming months, “the president will hope to galvanise support around his policies”, Barcesat said. “If shock therapy takes off and delivers results, especially around inflation, he believes he can increase support,” he said. “So far, this hasn’t been remotely achieved.”
Inflation rocketed to 276 percent in February, principally due to recent peso depreciations. Elsewhere, the poverty rate hit 57.4 percent in January, its highest in 20 years. Rising tensions among workers and unions have provoked high numbers of strikes and protests in recent weeks.
For Matias Vernengo, the former central bank official, “Milei is taking a huge gamble with the Argentinian people. If he doesn’t deliver results soon, I think that protests will start to turn violent. Things could get ugly.”
VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.
Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.
Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”
The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.
Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.
“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”
Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.
Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.
Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.
B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.
The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.
“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”
Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.
Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.
The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.
Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.
Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.
Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.
NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.
But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.
He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.
Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.
Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.
HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government has introduced a bill that would kick-start the province’s offshore wind industry without federal approval.
Natural Resources Minister Tory Rushton says amendments within a new omnibus bill introduced today will help ensure Nova Scotia meets its goal of launching a first call for offshore wind bids next year.
The province wants to offer project licences by 2030 to develop a total of five gigawatts of power from offshore wind.
Rushton says normally the province would wait for the federal government to adopt legislation establishing a wind industry off Canada’s East Coast, but that process has been “progressing slowly.”
Federal legislation that would enable the development of offshore wind farms in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador has passed through the first and second reading in the Senate, and is currently under consideration in committee.
Rushton says the Nova Scotia bill mirrors the federal legislation and would prevent the province’s offshore wind industry from being held up in Ottawa.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.
