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Five ETF investing themes to watch for in 2023

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High inflation, rising interest rates and the growing risk of a recession weighed heavily on the performance of exchange-traded funds in 2022 – a scenario experts believe will likely continue to play out into 2023.

“We’re likely going to see a dichotomy of looking for safety while seeking income,” says Danielle LeClair, director of manager research at Morningstar Canada in Toronto.

Here are five trends ETF experts predict will shape the ETF landscape in the New Year:

1. Hanging on to high-interest savings

High-interest savings funds saw the highest inflows among ETFs in Canada in 2022, with more than $7-billion flowing into the cash alternative ETFs as of Nov. 30, according to data from National Bank Financial Inc. CI’s High-Interest Savings ETF (CSAV-T) had the highest inflows at $2.4-billion, the data show, followed by Purpose High-Interest Savings ETF (PSA-T) at more than $1.6-billion.

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“Investors just weren’t sure where to go, so many defaulted to these cash instruments,” Ms. LeClair says.

She says these ETFs, which offer a low but steady yield, are expected to remain popular in 2023 as interest rates remain high, and market volatility continues.

2. Fixed income makes a comeback

Demand for high-interest savings drove inflows for fixed-income ETFs, which include bonds and cash alternatives, to near record heights so far in 2022, reaching about $13-billion as of Nov. 30, according to Tiffany Zhang, ETF analyst at National Bank Financial.

As the year progressed, however, traditional broad-based aggregate bond ETFs drew more attention, accounting for inflows of more than $6-billion. Bond fund values fell early in 2022, Ms. Zhang notes, as interest rates rose rapidly, but investors increasingly sought broad-based bond ETFs in late fall as yields improved along with a widespread view the steepest rate hikes were done. Growing demand in the latter half of the year helped propel fixed income to its second best year in Canadian ETF history, Ms. Zhang says, behind 2019 when it saw $14-billion of inflows.

Among the funds drawing investor capital was Vanguard’s Canadian Aggregate Bond Index ETF (VAB-T). It garnered $420-million of inflows in November, National Bank data show.

Investors are likely to allocate more to bond ETFs in 2023, with yields double what they were at the start of 2022 and interest rate hikes expected to plateau, Ms. Zhang says.

3. Different options for income ETFs

Equity ETFs offering income from dividends and options strategies, like writing covered calls, are likely to see more interest as investors “continue to reach for what works,” says Lara Crigger, New Orleans-based editor-in-chief of the ETF data firm VettaFi.

She points to U.S.-listed funds like JPMorgan’s Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI-A), yielding 10 per cent annually, which has seen about US$12-billion of inflows in 2022.

Income equity ETFs involving options to generate yield were popular in Canada, attracting $4-billion of inflows in 2022, the highest ever, according to Ms. Zhang.

ETFs like BMO’s Canadian High Dividend Covered Call ETF (ZWC-T), yielding about 6 per cent, could see demand in 2023 as “investors search for yield from less traditional strategies,” adds Ms. LeClair.

4. Commodities continue to attract

Commodity-based ETFs, including energy, base and precious metals, and agriculture products, could see renewed attention, building on generally strong performance in 2022.

National Bank data show energy ETFs led ETFs across all sectors in Canada for performance. Horizons Natural Gas ETF (HUN-T), up nearly 72 per cent, topped the list, trailed by CI’s Energy Giants Covered Call ETF (NXF-B-T), up 52 per cent, as of Dec. 12. Both are total returns.

Ms. Crigger adds agriculture commodities in particular drew more attention in 2022 amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, two countries that are major producers of commodities such as wheat, corn and fertilizer.

“It seemed everybody was an armchair grain commodity analyst,” she says, with ETFs like Invesco DB Agriculture (DBA-A) seeing inflows of hundreds of millions of dollars in the spring.

Interest in most commodities waned later in the year, with most ETFs experiencing net outflows in recent months, she adds.

Commodity ETFs could see regained attention in 2023 as the war in Ukraine continues, affecting supply. Still, Ms. Crigger says some commodities could also come under pressure amid the economic slowdown many are forecasting.

“I don’t think you can crystal ball what will happen because so much depends on things that haven’t happened yet, like weather,” she says.

Still, if volatility persists, investors may find windows of opportunity for commodity ETFs, Ms. Crigger notes.

5. More actively managed growth strategies

More actively managed ETFs are expected to come to market in 2023, adding to the growing trend in 2022 and previous years. More asset management companies have made a “shift toward ETFs amid falling demand for mutual funds,” Ms. Crigger notes.

2022 has been a tough year for mutual funds in Canada, with net outflows of $30-billion as of Nov. 30, according to National Bank data, while ETF inflows are likely to exceed $30-billion by year’s end – making it the third-best year on record behind 2021 ($52-billion) and 2020 ($40-billion), according to Ms. Zhang.

The past year saw a handful of new and notable actively managed, growth-oriented ETFs list in Canada, including BMO’s ARK series, launching in November, offering choices like the BMO ARK Next Generation Internet Fund ETF (ARKW-T). The ETFs mirror U.S.-listed funds from ARK Investment Management LLC., led by renowned active manager Cathie Wood.

Demand for ARK ETFs soared in 2020 as investors favoured growth themes like fintech and robotics, but in 2022, these funds dramatically underperformed as more investors sought safety amid rising rates.

Additionally, Canadian investors will likely see a very different spin on growth ETFs, passive or active: single-stock ETFs.

Purpose Investments filed a preliminary prospectus in November for 10 funds, each holding a single stock, like Tesla (TSLA-Q), Ms. Zhang says, noting the ETFs employ active leverage and options strategies to boost returns.

Although these growth-oriented launches may seem ill-timed, “there is still a large investor base for them,” Ms. LeClair notes.

Of course, just like other trends for 2023, investors can end up chasing past returns leading to losses in the future, she cautions.

“That is always a risk, especially for new launches.”

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BWXT announces $80M investment for plant in Cambridge – CityNews Kitchener

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BWX Technologies (BWXT) in Cambridge is investing $80-million to expand their nuclear manufacturing plant in Cambridge.

Minister of Energy, Todd Smith, was in the city on Friday to join the company in the announcement.

The investment will create over 200 new skilled and unionized jobs. This is part of the province’s plan to expand affordable and clean nuclear energy to power the economy.

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“With shovels in the ground today on new nuclear generation, including the first small modular reactor in the G7, I’m so pleased to see global nuclear manufacturers like BWXT expanding their operations in Cambridge and hiring more Ontario workers,” Smith said. “The benefits of Ontario’s nuclear industry reaches far beyond the stations at Darlington, Pickering and Bruce, and this $80 million investment shows how all communities can help meet Ontario’s growing demand for clean energy, while also securing local investments and creating even more good-paying jobs.”

The added jobs will support BWXT’s existing operations across the province as well as help the sector’s ongoing operations of existing nuclear stations at Darlington, Bruce and Pickering.

“Our expansion comes at a time when we’re supporting our customers in the successful execution of some of the largest clean nuclear energy projects in the world,” John MacQuarrie, President of Commercial Operations at BWXT, said.

“At the same time, the global nuclear industry is increasingly being called upon to mitigate the impacts of climate change and increase energy security and independence. By investing significantly in our Cambridge manufacturing facility, BWXT is further positioning our business to serve our customers to produce more safe, clean and reliable electricity in Canada and abroad.”

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AI investments will help chip sector to recover: Analyst – Yahoo Finance

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The semiconductor sector is undergoing a correction as interest rate cut expectations dwindle, prompting concerns about the impact on these high-growth, technology-driven stocks. Wedbush Enterprise Hardware Analyst Matt Bryson joins Yahoo Finance to discuss the dynamics shaping the chip industry.

Bryson acknowledges that the rise of generative AI has been a significant driving force behind the recent success of chip stocks. While he believes that AI is shifting “the way technology works,” he notes it will take time. Due to this, Bryson highlights that “significant investment” will continue to occur in the chip market, fueled by the growth of generative AI applications.

However, Bryson cautions that as interest rates remain elevated, it could “weigh on consumer spending.” Nevertheless, he expresses confidence that the AI revolution “changing the landscape for tech” will likely insulate the sector from the effect of high interest rates, as investors are unwilling to miss out on the “next technology” breakthrough.

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For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance.

This post was written by Angel Smith

Video Transcript

BRAD SMITH: As rate cut bets shift, so have moves in one sector, in particular. Shares of AMD and Intel, both down over 15% in the last 30 days. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, also known as Sox, dropping over 10% from recent highs, despite a higher rate environment.

Our next guest is still bullish on the sector. Matt Bryson, Wedbush Enterprise Hardware analyst, joins us now. Matt, thanks so much for taking the time here. Walk us through your thesis here, especially, given some of the pullback that we’ve seen recently.

MATT BRYSON: So I think what we’ve seen over the last year or so is that the growth of generative AI has fueled the chip stocks. And the expectation that AI is going to shift everything in the way that technology works.

And I think that at the end of the day, that that thesis will prove out. I think the question is really timing. But the investments that we’ve seen that have lifted NVIDIA, that have lifted AMD, that have lifted the chip stock and sector, in general, the large cloud service providers, building out data centers. I don’t think anything has changed there in the near term.

So when I speak to OEMs, who are making AI servers, when I speak to cloud service providers, there is still significant investment going on in that space. That investment is slated to continue certainly into 2025. And I think, as long as there is this substantial investment, that we will see chip names report strong numbers and guide for strong growth.

SEANA SMITH: Matt, when it comes to the fact that we are in this macroeconomic environment right now, likelihood that rates will be higher for longer here, at least, when you take a look at the expectations, especially following some of the commentary that we got from Fed officials this week, what does that signal more broadly for the AI trade, meaning, is there a reason to be a bit more cautious in this higher for longer rate environment, at least, in the near term?

MATT BRYSON: Yeah. I think certainly from a market perspective, high interest rates weight on the market. Eventually, they weigh on consumer spending. Certainly, for a lot of the chip names, they’re high multiple stocks.

When you think about where there can be more of a reaction or a negative reaction to high interest rates, certainly, it has some impact on those names. But in terms of, again, AI changing the fundamental landscape for tech, I don’t think that high interest rates or low interest rates will change that.

So when you think about Microsoft, Amazon, all of those large data center operators looking at AI, potentially, changing the landscape forever and wanting to make a bet on AI to make sure that they don’t miss that change, I don’t think whether interest rates are low or high are going to really affect their investment.

I think they’re going to go ahead and invest because no one wants to be the guy that missed the next technology wave.

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If pension funds can't see the case for investing in Canada, why should you? – The Globe and Mail

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It’s time to ask a rude question: Is Canada still worth investing in?

Before you rush to deliver an appropriately patriotic response, think about the issue for a moment.

A good place to begin is with the federal government’s announcement this week that it is forming a task force under former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz. The task force’s job will be to find ways to encourage Canadian pension funds to invest more of their assets in Canada.

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Wooing pension funds has become a high-priority matter for Ottawa because, at the moment, these big institutional investors don’t invest all that much in Canada. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, for instance, had a mere 14 per cent of its massive $570-billion portfolio in Canadian assets at the end of its last fiscal year.

Other major Canadian pension plans have similar allocations, especially if you look beyond their holdings of government bonds and consider only their investments in stocks, infrastructure and real assets. When it comes to such risky assets, these big, sophisticated players often see more potential for good returns outside of Canada than at home.

This leads to a simple question: If the CPPIB and other sophisticated investors aren’t overwhelmed by Canada’s investment appeal, why should you and I be?

It’s not as if Canadian stocks have a record of outstanding success. Over the past decade, they have lagged far behind the juicy returns of the U.S.-based S&P 500.

To be fair, other countries have also fallen short of Wall Street’s glorious run. Still, Canadian stocks have only a middling record over the past 10 years even when measured against other non-U.S. peers. They have trailed French and Japanese stocks and achieved much the same results as their Australian counterparts. There is no obvious Canadian edge.

There are also no obvious reasons to think this middle-of-the-pack record will suddenly improve.

A generation of mismanagement by both major Canadian political parties has spawned a housing crisis and kneecapped productivity growth. It has driven household debt burdens to scary levels.

Policy makers appear unwilling to take bold action on many long-standing problems. Interprovincial trade barriers remain scandalously high, supply-managed agriculture continues to coddle inefficient small producers, and tax policy still pushes people to invest in homes rather than in productive enterprises.

From an investor’s perspective, the situation is not that appetizing. A handful of big banks, a cluster of energy producers and a pair of railways dominate Canada’s stock market. They are solid businesses, yes, but they are also mature industries, with less than thrilling growth prospects.

What is largely missing from the Canadian stock scene are big companies with the potential to expand and innovate around the globe. Shopify Inc. SHOP-T and Brookfield Corp. BN-T qualify. After that, the pickings get scarce, especially in areas such as health care, technology and retailing.

So why hold Canadian stocks at all? Four rationales come to mind:

  • Canadian stocks have lower political risk than U.S. stocks, especially in the run-up to this year’s U.S. presidential election. They also are far away from the front lines of any potential European or Asian conflict.
  • They are cheaper than U.S. stocks on many metrics, including price-to-earnings ratios, price-to-book ratios and dividend yields. Scored in terms of these standard market metrics, they are valued more or less in line with European and Japanese stocks, according to Citigroup calculations.
  • Canadian dividends carry some tax advantages and holding reliable Canadian dividend payers means you don’t have to worry about exchange-rate fluctuations.
  • Despite what you may think, Canada’s fiscal situation actually looks relatively benign. Many countries have seen an explosion of debt since the pandemic hit, but our projected deficits are nowhere near as worrisome as those in the United States, China, Italy or Britain, according to International Monetary Fund figures.

How compelling you find these rationales will depend upon your personal circumstances. Based strictly on the numbers, Canadian stocks look like ho-hum investments – they’re reasonable enough places to put your money, but they fail to stand out compared with what is available globally.

Canadians, though, have always displayed a striking fondness for homebrew. Canadian stocks make up only a smidgen of the global market – about 3 per cent, to be precise – but Canadians typically pour more than half of their total stock market investments into Canadian stocks, according to the International Monetary Fund. This home market bias is hard to justify on any rational basis.

What is more reasonable? Vanguard Canada crunched the historical data in a report last year and concluded that Canadian investors could achieve the best balance between risk and reward by devoting only about 30 per cent of their equity holdings to Canadian stocks.

This seems to be more or less in line with what many Canadian pension funds currently do. They have about half their portfolio in equities, so devoting 30 per cent of that half to domestic stocks works out to holding about 15 per cent of their total portfolio in Canadian equities.

That modest allocation to Canadian stocks is a useful model for Canadian investors of all sizes. And if Ottawa doesn’t like it? Perhaps it could do more to make Canada an attractive investment destination.

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