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Flat year on horizon for region's real estate – Times Colonist

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5 years ago

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ANDREW A. DUFFY

Times Colonist

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After a flat sales year in 2019, the Greater Victoria Real Estate Board is expecting another without shocks, surprises, slumps or super-charged growth.

“I suspect it will be more of the same,” said incoming Victoria Real Estate Board president David Langlois. “There are no shocks we can see with respect to interest rates or any large world events, though obviously we can’t predict those things, but in terms of the cycle, we are right on track.

“We typically go through a period of frenetic activity and price raises, then a relatively long, flat period when not a lot happens.”

According to several real estate veterans, the frenetic periods of activity and price increases tend to last two or three years, while the plateau periods can last seven or eight years.

That’s where 2020 finds itself — in the midst of what many believe could be another long, flat period. According to market figures released by the board Thursday, the region is coming off a year that boasted 7,255 sold properties, a 1.47 per cent increase from the 7,150 sold in 2018. The 10-year average for property sales is 7,413.

By comparison, the busy year of 2016 saw 10,622 sales, and another 8,944 in 2017 before things started to slow down again in 2018.

Langlois said the board saw its benchmark home-price index peak in the summer of 2018 to about $900,000, since then it has moderated a little, “but not much.”

“[2020] will be an uneventful, unexciting, normal year from what we can tell,” he said, adding last year there were few appreciable gains other than condo prices in the core areas and the single-family homes at the lower end of the market.

Langlois said he expects to see the higher end of the market continue to be soft, with the bulk of activity reserved for the lower end and entry level, a result of the federal government’s mortgage stress-test rules.

In all, he expects it will be a relatively balanced market.

“The market is steady,” Langlois said. That was the case as 2019 came to a close.

Last month, the board reported 402 properties sold with sales of condominiums up 17.5 per cent to 121 sold, compared with December 2018. Single-family home sales increased 13.8 per cent to 198 at the same time.

The benchmark price of a single-family home in the Victoria core in December was $855,000, down from $860,400 a year earlier. The benchmark price for a condo last month was $520,700, up from $503,000 a year ago.

Outgoing president Cheryl Woolley said 2019 was “active, slow to grow and low in supply.”

“Last year, we saw many prospective buyers sit on the sidelines waiting for inventory to be added. As a result of this unmet demand, there was and continues to be a push from consumers to create townhomes and condos at accessible price points,” she said.

In a year-end statement, Woolley reflected they had started the year by looking at measures taken by the federal and provincial governments to cool off a housing market that had already started to slow down after 2016-17.

She said tighter mortgage lending rules lowered consumer borrowing power and pushed more buyers into the mid- and lower-priced property market. The result was pressure on pricing.

“Although we did not see huge price increases though 2019 like we did in the run up through 2016, we do see buyers entering into multiple offer situations and competing for properties,” she said.

The real estate market on the rest of Vancouver Island slowed down in 2019, as the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board reported total sales of single-family homes fell nine per cent to 4,119.

The average selling price, however, did jump five per cent to $535,577 last year, up from $511,839.

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Unlock Reliable U.S. Real Estate Opportunities with Oak Street Partners

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1 day ago

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November 20, 2024

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OAK STREET PARTNERS UNLOCKING OPPORTUNITIES  FOR CANADIAN INVESTORS IN THE U.S. RENTAL HOUSING MARKET

Oak Street Partners is leading the way in cash-flow-focused U.S. affordable housing investments

TORONTO, ON | NOVEMBER 18, 2024 – With the Canadian real estate market facing challenges and declining opportunities for investors, Oak Street Partners, a Toronto-based private real estate investment firm, is offering a new avenue for Canadian investors to diversify into the U.S. rental housing market. Oak Street Partners enables investors to passively invest in U.S. affordable housing, providing them with stable, cash-flow-focused returns while helping meet the growing demand for quality, affordable housing in the United States.

“Market conditions in Canada have made it more difficult for investors to find reliable, income-generating opportunities,” says Parker Christie, Founder & CEO of Oak Street Partners. “By turning to the U.S. affordable housing market, we’ve been able to create consistent, cash-flowing investments that benefit both our investors and local communities.”

Building on this approach, Oak Street Partners facilitates investment by strategically acquiring and managing properties in the U.S., particularly in the Midwest and Southeast regions. Investors provide capital, while Oak Street handles all aspects of property ownership and management. Similar to a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), but privately structured, Oak Street ensures investors receive stable, cash-flow-driven returns without the need for direct involvement.
A key part of Oak Street’s approach is leveraging the Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher Program, America’s largest federal rental subsidy program that pays private landlords rent on behalf of low-income tenants. This guarantees a reliable, high cash flow income stream, even when real estate markets are challenged with high interest rate environments. By leveraging this program, Oak Street is not only able to provide consistent returns to its investors, but it also enhances lower-income communities, creating sustainable, quality homes for residents.

“It’s a win-win situation,” explains Trumbull Fisher, Director of Oak Street Partners. “Tenants are able to secure and enjoy quality, affordable housing, while investors benefit from reliable, government-backed rental payments that ensure steady cash flow.”

By investing in these properties, Oak Street is able to support the demand for affordable housing, while also contributing to the broader social good by addressing housing shortages and improving community infrastructure. This dual focus on financial return and social impact is what makes Oak Street’s approach stand out in today’s real estate investment landscape.

In its first year of operation, Oak Street has acquired over 100 units in Ohio. With $10 million in assets under management, the company has been able to offer its investors a 10 per cent cash dividend, which was distributed nine months into its operation. This is a rare milestone for companies in their first year, as many real estate investment firms operate at a loss in their early stages.

“As we look to the future, our goal is to expand Oak Street’s portfolio in high-demand areas across the Midwest and Southeast,” adds Christie. “Our focus will remain on sourcing properties that deliver strong, stable returns while positively impacting local communities.”

For more information on Oak Street Partners visit oakstreetgp.com/.

ABOUT OAK STREET PARTNERS

Oak Street Partners is a real estate investment firm focused on creating diversified and stable opportunities for investors in the U.S. rental housing market. We offer a unique pathway for investors to build and expand their portfolios by investing in affordable housing opportunities, improving the quality of life for tenants while delivering consistent returns for investors.

Website: https://oakstreetgp.com/

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/oak-street-partners-gp

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/oakstreetgp/

Email: info@oakstreetgp.com  n

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‘The Bidding War’ taps into Toronto’s real estate anxiety

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1 week ago

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November 12, 2024

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‘The Bidding War’ is a play skewering Toronto’s real estate market via a story about a one-day bidding war over the city’s last affordable home. The cast and crew say it exposes how the housing crisis brings out “the worst in people.” (Nov. 12, 2024)

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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2 weeks ago

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November 6, 2024

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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