From March 14 to 21, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,500 Ontario adults exploring several topics as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
Every month, with our media partner the Toronto Star, we track how Ontarians are feeling about their political choices and add new topics based on current events and discussions. In this edition of the survey, we explored perceptions about Doug Ford’s government in more depth and the relationship between Ford, Prime Minister Trudeau, and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
We begin by examining the current political landscape in Ontario.
Doug Ford and the Ontario PCs lead by 14 percentage points over Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberals.
If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters in Ontario would vote PC with the Ontario Liberals at 27%, the Ontario NDP at 21%, and the Greens at 7%.
Since our last survey, the PC and Liberal vote share is steady while the Ontario NDP is up 2.
Regionally, the PCs lead in every region of the province. They are ahead by 9 in Toronto, 11 in the GTHA, 21 in southwestern Ontario, and 19 in eastern Ontario.
The PCs also lead among men (by 21) and women (by 6) and across every age group. Over time, we have noticed that the PCs have become more popular among younger Ontarians. This mimics what we have seen at the national level with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and something we think is directly tied to the popularity of Poilievre among younger Ontarians. More on that below.
When it comes to the Ford government overall, 1 in 3 Ontarians approve of the government’s job performance while 43% disapprove. Since last month, the Ford government’s approval rating is up 4-points while disapproval is down 5 points since the beginning of the year.
Impressions of the four main party leaders are stable since last month. 1 in 3 have a favourable view of Premier Ford compared with 43% who have a negative impression for a net score of -11.
Marit Stiles has a net score of +2, while Bonnie Crombie is even with 27% positive and 27% negative.
How do Ontarians View the Ford Government?
Respondents were asked to choose phrases or words that describe the Ford government. We asked the same question to our national sample about the Trudeau government and to a large sample in Alberta about the provincial government led by Danielle Smith. We will share results of those results in the coming days.
In Ontario, views of the Ford government are mixed. For example, Ontarians are about evenly split on whether the provincial government is focused or distracted, whther it is clear on what it wants Ontario to be or not, and whether it is effective or ineffective. Moreover, about 1 in 3 feel the provincial government is focused on the right priorities, proactive rather than reactive, and empathetic rather than indifferent.
And the importance of these perceptions are shown when we look at the correlation between perceptions and vote intention. The table below reports the PC vote share by response. It shows that the strongest predictors of support for the PCs are among those who think the government is focused on the right priorities, is collaborative, is effective, and is empathetic. And if you think about the Premier’s actions over the past several months – efforts to be seen as “getting things done” and responsive to the public (empathy) – are important to its image and political support.
Is Pierre Poilievre lifting the Ford PCs in Ontario?
In this survey, we also asked several questions about the relationship between Doug Ford, Justin Trudeau, and Pierre Poilievre – trying to understand what public perceptions are and whether Pierre Poilievre is helping or hurting the PCs in Ontario.
Here’s what we found:
Half of Ontarians believe that the relationship between Doug Ford and Justin Trudeau is close or at least cordial and profession. Another 30% believe it is cold, distant, or antagonistic.
In contrast, fewer people have a sense of the relationship between Doug Ford and Pierre Poilievre. 38% don’t know what the relationship is like with the rest split. More feel the relationship is positive or cordial (48%) than think it’s cold, distant, or antagonistic (15%).
When asked whether they think Doug Ford and Pierre Poilievre would work well together or not, if Poilievre were to become Prime Minister, 45% think they would work well together, including 74% of PC supporters, 66% of federal Conservative supporters in Ontario. Federal Liberal supporters in Ontario are split with 35% thinking they would work well together and 35% thinking they wouldn’t.
When asked who they think Doug Ford would prefer to be Prime Minister – Poilievre or Trudeau – 56% think he’d prefer Poilievre as Prime Minister while about 1 in 5 think he prefers Trudeau. 27% are unsure. Among Ontario PC supporters, 12% think he’d prefer Trudeau. Among federal Conservative supporters in Ontario, that drops to 5%.
We also asked people how they felt about Ford and Poilievre. 1 in 4 Ontarians (26%) say they like both men while 16% like Poilievre but not Ford, and 10% like Ford but not Poilievre. 31% like neither while 16% don’t have clear views on either of them.
Among Ontario PC supporters, 66% say they like both while 15% like Ford and not Poilievre while 9% like Poilievre and not Ford. Among federal Conservative supporters in Ontario, half like both men equally while 28% like Poilievre but not Ford and 6% like Ford and not Poilievre.
Finally, when we ask those who would vote Conservative federally AND Progressive Conservative in Ontario whether they identify more closely as a Ford Conservative or a Poilievre Conservative, 44% identify more as a Poilievre Conservative, 20% more as a Ford Conservative, and 33% say they identify with both equally. Interestingly, federal/provincial Conservative voters under 44 are more likely to identify with Poilievre signally the impact that Poilievre’s popularity with younger people is having on Ontario PC support.
Find out more about the The Three Threads and how the Abacus Data team looks at polling for public affairs and advocacy.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Doug Ford’s PC Party remain in a strong position in Ontario. The provincial government’s approval rating is improving, disapproval is dropping, and its hypothetical vote intention is holding steady.
The additional questions we asked this month provide nuanced insight into the complex relationship between the federal Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre and the provincial Progressive Conservative (PC) Party led by Doug Ford in Ontario. It also sheds light on potential dynamics between Doug Ford and the federal political leaders, Pierre Poilievre and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Our polling indicates a general perception that Doug Ford has a closer or at least a cordial and professional relationship with Justin Trudeau compared to Pierre Poilievre, with half of Ontarians viewing the Ford-Trudeau relationship positively. However, perceptions of Ford’s relationship with Poilievre are less clear, with a significant portion of the population either unaware of the nature of their relationship or viewing it as positive or cordial.
A notable percentage of Ontarians, including a majority of PC and federal Conservative supporters, believe that Ford and Poilievre would work well together if Poilievre were to become Prime Minister. This suggests a perceived alignment or compatibility in their political or governance approaches among their supporters.
Given the perception that Ford has a somewhat positive relationship with both Trudeau and Poilievre, Ford may navigate his political strategy based on practical considerations rather than personal affinity. However, the strong belief among Ontarians that he would prefer Poilievre as Prime Minister, especially among Conservative supporters, may pressure Ford to display a more visible alignment or cooperation with Poilievre, especially if Poilievre’s influence and popularity continues to grow. This pressure will grow even more if more and more people come to expect that Poilievre will be Prime Minister after the next federal election.
The distinction between those who identify more with Poilievre or Ford among Conservative voters hints at differing political brands within the Conservative spectrum in Ontario. This differentiation could influence Ford’s approach to provincial governance, potentially balancing between maintaining his political identity and aligning with Poilievre’s policies to ensure cohesive support from the Conservative base.
Finally, these results also demonstrate the importance of the Ford government following through on its promise to get things done as perceptions of focus and effectiveness are the strongest predictors of support for the Ontario PC Party.”
Looking to conduct polling or market research in 2024? Have budget left to spend before the end of March? Send Yvonne an email to connect with the Abacus Data team today!
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Ontario adults from March 16 to 21, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.
The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.
The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.
It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.
Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.
A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.
During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.
They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.
“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.
Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”
Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.
These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”
These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.
Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.
The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”
It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.
“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”
This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.
“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”
However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.
Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.
In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.
It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.
In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.
Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.
Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.
WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.
The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.
Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.
The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.
A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.
Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.
“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.
The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.
“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”
Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.
“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.
Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024
OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.
His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.
Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.
Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.
It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.
The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.
“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.
When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”
In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.
Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.
“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.
The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.
Singh called it a “big victory.”
“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.
“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”
New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.
Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.
The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.
