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Forecast for home prices, sales scaled back after slow spring: CREA

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Despite hope for lower interest rates in the months ahead, the Canadian Real Estate Association is scaling back expectations for home sales and prices after a slower-than-usual spring season.

CREA released an updated housing outlook on Friday that saw it revise down forecasts for both 2024 and 2025.

The organization now expected some 472,395 properties to change hands this year, a bump of 6.1 per cent from last year’s figures but below the anticipated 492,083 sales it called for in its previous forecast from April.

Home prices will end up at an average of $694,393 nationally, CREA said, an annual gain of 2.5 per cent. The organization’s earlier forecasts called for 4.9 per cent growth to an average price of $710,468.


Click to play video: 'Interest rate drop unlikely to affect Calgary home prices'
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Interest rate drop unlikely to affect Calgary home prices

 


CREA sees more recovery in the housing market in 2025 as interest rates are expected to decline, with 501,902 sales and an average price of $729,319. That’s also down from April’s expectations for 530,494 sales and an average price of $760,120 next year.

What’s changed from April to July is reduced optimism for the pace of interest rate easing from the Bank of Canada, which delivered its first rate cut of the cycle in June. Tiff Macklem, the governor of the central bank, has said that Canadians can expect a “gradual” pace of rate cuts going forward compared with the rapid rate hike cycle over the past two years.

Supply in the housing market has also built up as sellers come off the sidelines, CREA noted, but buyers remained hesitant through the spring.

“While lower interest rates are still expected to gradually bring buyers back into the market going forward, a slow spring market this year along with growing levels of supply has resulted in a downward revision to the forecast for both sales and average home prices,” the association said in a release.

In an updated forecast released Thursday, Royal LePage maintained its call for annual home prices growth of nine per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, but CEO Phil Soper conceded to Global News that he expected “more of a reaction in the marketplace” to the Bank of Canada’s quarter-point rate cut.

The central bank’s next rate decision is set for July 24.

Re/Max Canada president Chris Alexander told Global News earlier this week that he expects there will need to be at least two more rate cuts before buyers come back in a meaningful way.

If the central bank delivers a rate cut later this month, he expects the fall housing season will kick off with a “really robust” September.

“So many cities and people are waiting for more favourable buying conditions, and it does, unfortunately, come down to interest rates,” Alexander says.

“We’re still at the mercy of the Bank of Canada at the end of the day.”

 

June sales, prices show ‘signs of renewed life’

Canada’s housing market was starting to show “early signs of renewed life” by the end of the spring, CREA said in a separate release highlighting June sales figures. On a monthly basis, home sales activity was up 3.7 months from May, the association said.

The average, non-seasonally adjusted sale price for a home last month in Canada was $696,179, down 1.6 per cent year-over-year.

But CREA’s Home Price Index did tick higher by a tenth of a percentage point, which, while small, was the first hike in 11 months. The market tightened overall as sales outpaced new listings in the month.“It wasn’t a ‘blow the doors off’ month by any means, but Canada’s housing numbers did perk up a bit on a month-over-month basis in June following the first Bank of Canada rate cut,” said CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart.

Prairie provinces and Quebec are showing more signs of price appreciation amid competition for homes in those markets, while Canada’s most expensive cities, like Toronto, are facing unseasonably slow sales. Buyers in these markets have more choice with plenty of inventory on hand, CREA chair Jason Mabey said in a release.

Supply in June might have gotten a lift from changes made to capital gains taxes last month, TD Bank economist Rishi Sondhi suggested in a note to clients on Friday.

As part of its 2024 federal  budget, the Liberal government in June raised the inclusion rate on capital gains realized above $250,000 in a year from one-half to two-thirds for individuals. While primary residences are excluded from capital gains, the changes do impact investors with secondary properties.

Sondhi said that listings may have seen a lift from investors rushing to offload their properties before the June 25 deadline when the changes took effect, but he added that “unfortunately, data gaps preclude a definitive statement on the matter.”

BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic said in a note to clients that, despite a single rate cut from the Bank of Canada, housing activity “remained subdued” in June.

Fixed-rate mortgages, which respond only indirectly to the central bank’s rate moves, are already lower than the more closely correlated variable mortgages, he noted. With few borrowers out there currently taking the variable route, “these early rate cuts aren’t having a big impact,” Kavcic said.

In the absence of meaningful rate cuts to restore affordability in the most expensive markets, buyers are moving to where ownership is more attainable, which Kavcic says is driving activity and prices higher in cities such as Calgary, Edmonton, Regina and Winnipeg.

While many buyers in the market today have been able to secure fixed-rate mortgages below the five-percent bar, Soper told Global News that rates on offer will have to start floating in the range of 4.0-4.5 per cent before buyers are confident enough to seriously test the market.

“It probably will take an additional couple of rate cuts of that magnitude to start to make a real difference,” he said earlier this week.

 

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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