It might seem like ancient history now, but the belated appointment of a Quebec judge on Wednesday to lead a public inquiry into foreign interference is a reminder that — for a few feverish months this spring — the question of possible tampering in the Canadian democratic process was all anyone in Ottawa wanted to talk about.
It’s also a reminder that almost no one covered themselves in glory during those months.
“Our work together sends a clear signal to Canadians that democratic institutions are strong and are resilient,” Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc said Thursday, noting that Justice Marie-Josée Hogue’s appointment and her terms of reference had the full support of all recognized parties in the House of Commons.
Canadian democracy has been in desperate need of such a signal.
Hogue’s appointment comes nearly three months after David Johnston — the former governor general chosen by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in March to look into the questions raised by a series of intelligence leaks — decided he’d had enough.
It was Johnston’s considered view that Parliament was — or should be — mature and serious enough to tackle the deeply important questions raised by this furor — questions that go to the very heart of this country’s democracy and institutions. Parliament disagreed, very loudly.
Johnston argued that existing institutions — including the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians and the National Security and Intelligence Review Agency — could, along with his own contributions, bring clarity and accountability to a discussion dominated by sensational headlines and wild accusations. And it’s possible that both bodies will still report back with something useful.
David Johnston presents his report on foreign interference in Ottawa on May 23, 2023. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press)
But Johnston ultimately was doomed by who he was (Johnston’s family and the Trudeau family are at least acquainted) and what he was not (the opposition parties were unwilling to settle for anything less than a public inquiry).
After Johnston’s resignation, the Liberal government was finally compelled to launch discussions with the opposition parties about an inquiry. Those negotiations apparently dragged on — perhaps in part because several individuals reportedly turned down the government’s entreaties to lead such an investigation in the wake of Johnston’s thrashing in the public square.
In hindsight, it’s obvious the Liberals could have saved themselves, and the country, a great deal of time and trouble by launching an inquiry very soon after the first intelligence leaks and allegations appeared in media reports.
But while everyone waited for an inquiry to be launched, the headlines dried up and the opposition parties seemed only too happy to drop the issue. Maybe that was out of respect for the all-party discussions happening behind closed doors. Maybe it was because, as it turned out, voters were altogether more concerned with the cost of housing.
In the fading light of late summer, Hogue’s appointment almost seems anticlimactic — and it is tempting to dismiss this spring’s turmoil as a passing fad. But of course, it isn’t.
How foreign interference tests our democracy
Foreign interference, either real or alleged, is ultimately a test of a political system’s seriousness — a test not only of the system’s ability to counter and resist meddling but of the capacity of political actors to deal with suspicions, fears, threats and allegations. And the early returns from this particular episode have not flattered Canada’s political system.
Justice Hogue’s terms of reference are expansive and the government has committed to giving her access to any documents she seeks. Her timeline is tight but it might be just enough to get at the questions raised by the series of media reports that caused such tumult this past spring.
“The terms of reference were deliberately written to give the inquiry and the commissioner the ability to follow the evidence,” LeBlanc said Wednesday.
Justice Marie-Josée Hogue has a tight timeline for completing her work. (Université de Sherbrooke)
The questions to be answered are by now obvious. What do intelligence agencies know about attempts by foreign states to interfere in Canadian democracy? How well is that information distributed within the government? What have elected officials and senior civil servants known about any attempts to interfere? And given what they knew, did they do enough to respond?
There is a risk here for both the government and its accusers — that an inquiry will find the government was derelict in its duty or that the biggest allegations are lacking in substance.
But the immediate political consequences are still secondary to the need for accountability, clarity and seriousness. Hogue’s broader remit is to resolve, one way or another, the suspicion and doubts that have been raised and stoked about Canada’s political process. Even if Canadians are rather more concerned with paying their mortgages or rent, the forces of suspicion and doubt can prove corrosive over time.
Parliament may have decided, in its infinite wisdom, that it was incapable of seriously handling such important matters. But there is some small grace in the fact the parties were at least capable of agreeing, belatedly, to outsource the responsibility to Hogue.
WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.
The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.
Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.
The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.
A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.
Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.
“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.
The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.
“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”
Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.
“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.
Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024
OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.
His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.
Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.
Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.
It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.
The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.
“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.
When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”
In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.
Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.
“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.
The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.
Singh called it a “big victory.”
“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.
“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”
New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.
Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.
The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.
The New Democrats have declared a federal byelection victory in their Winnipeg stronghold riding of Elmwood—Transcona.
The NDP candidate Leila Dance told supporters in a tearful speech that even though the final results weren’t in, she expected she would see them in Ottawa.
With several polls still to be counted, Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds conceded defeat and told his volunteers that they should be proud of what the Conservatives accomplished in the campaign.
Political watchers had a keen eye on the results to see if the Tories could sway traditionally NDP voters on issues related to labour and affordability.
Meanwhile in the byelection race in the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun the NDP, Liberals and Bloc Québécois remained locked in an extremely tight three-way race as the results trickled in slowly.
The Liberal stronghold riding had a record 91 names on the ballot, and the results aren’t expected until the early hours of the morning.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
