Four Canucks thoughts following NHL Draft Lottery: Defence targets, trade options, more

We’ve had a couple of days now to digest the NHL lottery’s results. That’s sparked rabid discussion around what each lottery team’s draft approach could be, which is especially important for the Canucks. Drafting at No. 11, they’ll be able to select a blue-chip prospect regardless of how the picks ahead of them shake out, but they don’t control whether the prospects they covet most in that range will get snapped up before they step up to the podium to make their first-round selection in Nashville.

Here are some Canucks thoughts now that we have some clarity about the draft process.

History suggests David Reinbacher is unlikely to be available for the Canucks

The top of the 2023 draft class is very forward-heavy.

The consensus top defenceman is David Reinbacher, a smooth-skating, two-way, 6-foot-2 presence. He’s a right-shot player too, which has made him an intriguing name for Canucks fans, who’d love to see the club find a long-term stud to complement Quinn Hughes.

Vancouver’s inability to draft and develop homegrown top-four defencemen besides Hughes under the last regime is a big reason why the club has had to take risky bets to add blue-line talent in previous years. That included the Tyler Myers signing, the Nate Schmidt trade and the Oliver Ekman-Larsson trade, with two of the three turning into big problems and contributing to the cap crunch today.

Nobody likes to just give away young, talented, cost-controllable defenders. That means if you have blue-line deficiencies, you have to pay a premium price on the trade market (eg: Filip Hronek trade), acquire a risky contract via free agency/trade or roll the dice on an unproven player and hope they break out.

For all of those reasons, you can understand why Reinbacher’s one of the top names that fans are interested to know more about.

Based on the public draft rankings, you’d think there’s a decent chance he’d be available for the Canucks at No. 11. He’s appeared top-10 on a couple of lists but falls mid-to-even the second half of the first round in others.

History suggests that the odds of him slipping out of the top 10 and becoming an option for the Canucks are pretty low. Since the 1994 NHL lockout, every single draft class has included at least one defenceman going off the board inside the top 10. In fact, there have been at least two defenders drafted inside the top 10 for 16 consecutive years dating back to 2007.

You’d have to go back 40 years to find a draft where not a single defender went in the top 10. That would be the 1983 draft which was loaded with Steve Yzerman, Pat LaFontaine, Cam Neely, John MacLean and Russ Courtnall in the top 10, among others. Every single forward taken in that range played at least 300 career NHL games.

Most teams and managers (including Patrik Allvin on Monday) will say that they’re simply going to take the best player available but that’s not how it always plays out. Clubs often cave to the urgency to address positional weaknesses, even though it may mean reaching to do so. Whether it’s influenced by need or not, we’ve definitely seen some defencemen taken earlier than expected in recent drafts.

Kevin Korchinski was ranked 16th in consolidated 2022 draft rankings but ended up going seventh to the Blackhawks. Anaheim’s selection of Pavel Mintyukov wasn’t a “reach” but he went No. 10 despite being 13th in consolidated rankings. That’s why higher-touted wingers like Jonathan Lekkerimaki, Joakim Kemell and Brad Lambert slipped. Nobody can forget Detroit shockingly taking Moritz Seider with the sixth pick either in 2019.

Colleague Scott Wheeler touched on the topic of when the first defender will go in his immediate takeaways article following the draft lottery.

“I could see the Coyotes, with two picks in the top 12, using the first on Reinbacher at No. 6 to make sure they land him, knowing they’ll be able to get a high-end forward at No. 12 with the pick they acquired from the Senators in the Jakob Chychrun deal. The Coyotes have drafted three forwards (Logan Cooley, Conor Geekie and Dylan Guenther) with their last three top picks.”

“If the Coyotes don’t take him at No. 6, I could also see the Flyers, who’ve used both of their last two first-round picks on forwards (Cutter Gauthier and Tyson Foerster), going that route.

“The Capitals, if Michkov is gone, could also use a blue-chip D prospect after using their last three first-round selections on forwards (Ivan Miroshnichenko, Hendrix Lapierre and Connor McMichael). In Washington’s case, if they have their sights set on continuing to push for the playoffs so long as Ovechkin is Ovechkin, then the appeal of a Reinbacher could be doubly enticing.

“Either way, I wouldn’t bet on Reinbacher’s being there past No. 8 with this draft order.”

If you’re a fan of Reinbacher, you should be hoping a surprise defender other than him somehow goes top 10. If you have reservations about Reinbacher’s upside, on the other hand, perhaps this is a blessing in disguise.

Weird things happen during the draft so never say never, but history doesn’t seem to favour the odds of Reinbacher being available at No. 11.

Will Canucks trade down or out of the first round?

Vancouver is set up to be in a very intriguing position at No. 11 if Reinbacher and some of the top centres get taken early as expected.

There’s a high chance a winger could be the best player available — do the Canucks draft one despite it being their strongest position? Do they trade down a few slots, pick up an extra asset and take a defender in the middle of the first round? Do they fear missing out on who they really want in a potential trade-down scenario? Could they stand pat at No. 11 and then reach for a different defenceman? Do they trade out of the 11th pick entirely to find win-now help if they aren’t thrilled with the remaining players left on the board?

I know there’s a natural tendency for some fans to overlook the wingers in this draft and protest that the Canucks need to prioritize adding a centre or blueliner. I agree that all else being equal, yes, the Canucks should prefer a defender or center. Obviously. But if there’s a sizable gap, they shouldn’t overthink it: just take the best player left. It’s important to learn from the last time when the club took Olli Juolevi over Matthew Tkachuk.

The last time a draft class was as hyped up as this one was in 2015, when elite wingers like Mikko Rantanen (No. 10) and Timo Meier (No. 9) were available right around where the Canucks will pick this year. Kyle Connor ended up going in the teens, too. This isn’t an ordinary draft year, so you have to be careful that you’re not leaving too much talent on the board if you try and make a centre or defender fit in that No. 11 hole.

Are the Canucks starting to develop prospects significantly better in Abbotsford?

Drafting the right players is only one half of the equation. After that, every organization has a responsibility to help players reach the peak of their potential. Some teams like the Rangers, for example, have struggled in the development department.

For a long time, the Canucks’ AHL team in Utica wasn’t graduating nearly enough big-league talent. After all, it seemed like the Canucks’ best young players had all developed overseas or in the NCAA before making a straight jump into the NHL.

One of the promising signs for an eventual turnaround is the impact that moving the farm team to Abbotsford has had. When the farm team was in Utica, it felt like a separate entity. The front office would only have one opportunity or so per year to make the long flight out there and see how players were progressing. Players must have felt disconnected from the big club, as if they didn’t have the ideal attention or resources available.

All of that is beginning to change. The new front office has beefed up the player development staff and the proximity to the big club means a lot of coaches like the Sedins or skills coach Yogi Svejkovsky can help both the NHL team and the prospects. Abbotsford even has a skating coach in MacKenzie Braid. The proximity also means that key Canucks decision-makers get tons of in-person viewings to keep tabs on the positives and negatives.

This year, we’ve seen meaningful improvement from Danila Klimovich, Jett Woo took a huge step to re-establish himself as a legitimate prospect and Arshdeep Bains impressed as a first-year pro. Nils Höglander and Vasili Podkolzin also spent decent chunks of the year in Abbotsford. Can you imagine how nice it was for Höglander and Podkolzin to avoid having to move to the other side of the continent, shift away from friends and set new roots if a minor league demotion was to Utica instead of Abbotsford?

All of the attention right now is on the draft and rightfully so, but the steps Vancouver takes to continually hone its development process are equally crucial.

Ducks have a bright long-term future and the changing scope of the Pacific Division

Anaheim won the No. 2 selection in the lottery which has a good chance of turning into Adam Fantilli. Fantilli is a special player in his own right — he scored 30 goals and 65 points in 30 games while winning the Hobey Baker as a freshman for the University of Michigan.

Fantilli (or Leo Carlsson) will be an exciting piece to add alongside a forward group that also features Trevor Zegras, Mason McTavish and Troy Terry. But it’s not just the forward group where the Ducks have exciting young talent. Lukas Dostal is a very promising 22-year-old goaltender with three solid AHL seasons and competent NHL results already under his belt.

Anaheim also became the first team in NHL history to have a prospect named defenceman of the year in each of the three Canadian Hockey Leagues (OHL, QMJHL, WHL) in the same season in Mintyukov, Tristan Luneau and Owen Zellweger, respectively.

The Ducks today became the first team in NHL history to have a prospect named Defenseman of the Year in each of the three Canadian Hockey Leagues (OHL, QMJHL, WHL) in the same season!https://t.co/f1LCyn5WNw

— Anaheim Ducks (@AnaheimDucks) May 9, 2023

Jamie Drysdale, who was drafted No. 6 in 2020 and missed all but eight games this year with injury after a promising rookie campaign, will also be a full-time NHLer this coming season.

There’s a lot of young talent, at almost every position, starting to build for Anaheim. It obviously won’t be an overnight fix but their cap situation is so pristine and they’re so chock full of assets that they will have the capital to aggressively accelerate once these young guns grow into prominent NHL roles over the next couple of seasons.

Couple that long-term threat with Vegas’ bounce back after missing the playoffs last year, Seattle’s surprise breakout, and Edmonton’s continued emergence as a contender and the Pacific Division doesn’t look nearly as soft as it was not too long ago. That matters because of how much divisional strength impacts playoff races and seeding in the current format. Collectively, it will make Vancouver’s competition for playoff spots over the next two or three years fiercer.

(Photo of David Reinbacher with Team Austria at the 2023 world juniors: Minas Panagiotakis / Getty Images)

 

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