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From a Tempest to a Trickle: Prospects for the 2020 Leonid Meteor Shower – Universe Today

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Following the Leonid meteors in 2020.

We witnessed an amazing astronomical spectacle in the early morning skies over the Kuwaiti desert in November 1998. That year, the Leonid meteors put on a spectacular display, topping an estimated 1,000 meteors per hour near sunrise. On most years, however, the Lion whimpers with a few paltry meteors per hour, but once every 33 years or so, the mighty Leonids can roar with an amazing display reaching storm level proportions.

Prospects for the 2020 Leonids

Unfortunately, 2020 is not projected to be such a year, but it’s always worth keeping an eye out during the early morning hours in mid-November. The 2020 peak for the Leonids is expected to arrive on Tuesday, November 17th, at around ~4:00 Universal Time (UT) or 11:00 PM EST (on the 16th). The Moon is a waxing crescent just two days after New at this point, ideal for meteor watching. This also favors the longitude of Europe and Africa at dawn, another plus. The 2020 Zenithal Hourly Rate (ZHR) is expected to hit a moderate 15-20 meteors per hour.

Looking eastward at 3AM local on November 17th. Credit: Stellarium.

The source of the Leonid meteors is periodic comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle, which is on a 33-year orbit around the Sun. The next major peak for the Leonids is expected for the early 2030s around 2032-33, though circumstances this time around may prove to be less than favorable. It’s worth noting that in the late 1990s we were seeing enhanced rates over several years leading up to 1998, so what we see from the Leonids in the coming decade may be indicative of what we might be in for, come 2032.

The orbit of Comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle. Credit: NASA/JPL

The Leonids are one of the most notorious of meteor storm producers. On the morning of November 13th, 1833, residents of the U.S. Eastern Seaboard awoke to a truly terrifying sight, as the sky seemed to be awash with meteors, failing like rain. Keep in mind, no one truly knew what meteors actually were until the late 19th century, or how they were related to the dust trails laid down by comets. In fact, the 1833 Leonids are cited as contributing to many of the religious fundamentalist revivals of the 1830s in the U.S… they were that influential.

An 1889 depiction of the 1833 Leonids, based on a first-hand account of Joseph Waggoner. Public Domain/Adolf Vollmy.

Will the Leonids ‘ramp up’ in the coming decade? Keep in mind, the quoted zenithal hourly rate (ZHR) for a given shower is the number you would see with optimal conditions, under a dark, moonless sky with the radiant directly overhead… most of us will see considerably less. Many neophyte observers get excited about the hype leading up to a meteor shower, only to be frustrated by the reality of seeing few if any meteors under light-polluted skies. Be patient, and search out a good dark sky site for best results. Tracing a meteor trail back to the ‘Sickle of Leo’ asterism identifies its membership as a Leonid… otherwise, the meteor may be a background sporadic, or a member of another shower. In November, the Taurids are also active, and the December Geminids are also spooling up. For best results, watch in the early morning hours, when the Earth is meeting the Leonid meteor stream head-on.

The circumstances for the 2020 Leonids. Credit: Orbitron/Dave Dickinson

In recent years, the Leonids have produced an observed peak of 29 (2019), 24 (2018) and 20 (2017) meteors per hour.

Observing a meteor shower is as simple as bundling up, laying back, watching and waiting. We prefer to look about 45 degrees off to one side of the radiant for a shower to see meteors in profile, though honestly, they can appear anywhere in the sky. If you’re observing with a friend, be sure to observe in opposite directions, to double your sky coverage. Also, be sure to keep a set of binoculars handy, as a brilliant fireball can often leave a lingering smoke train that can remain visible for over a minute or so.

You can also ‘hear’ meteors, or more accurately, the ionized reflection crackling in their wake along vacant swaths of the FM radio dial. You hear a similar phenomenon along the FM band during an intense lightning storm. Very occasionally, the radio reflections off of a meteor passage might even briefly bring a distant radio station into focus.

But can you actually hear meteors? This is a true and persistent phenomenon reported over the years by observers… as a kid, I remember hearing a distinct ‘hiss’ accompanying a brilliant Perseid. Now, meteors are just dust grains burning up high in the atmosphere, far from the ground and unable to carry sound to the viewer…plus, unlike the clap of thunder you hear several seconds after you see a flash of lightning, the effect seems to be instantaneous. The culprit appears to be what’s known as electrophonic sound, a local current induction set up off of nearby telephone wires, aluminum siding and even damp dewy grass surrounding the observer during the passage of a meteor.

Our humble meteor imaging rig. Credit: Dave Dickinson

Imaging meteors is also a straightforward affair: a tripod-mounted DSLR camera with a wide-lens covering a good swath of sky will do the trick. Use the manual ‘bulb’ setting to take a series of 1-3 minute exposures, and see what turns up. Be sure to take a series of test exposures first, to get the balance of shutter speed/f-ratio/and ISO exposure just right versus the local sky conditions. Be sure to carefully examine the shots afterwards… nearly every meteor we’ve caught on camera was missed during naked eye observing. I like to use a remote intervalometer to automate the process by setting the camera to record a series of 3-minute exposures, freeing me up to simply sit back and watch the show. Also, keep an extra set of camera batteries handy, preferably in a warm pocket; long exposures and cold November temperatures can drain camera batteries in a hurry.

Finally, don’t forget to keep a count of how many meteors you see, and report your observations to the International Meteor Organization. Amateur visual and radio observations of meteor showers all contribute to our efforts to understand how particular meteor showers evolve, and may even uncover new meteor streams.

Sure, the sky won’t come ablaze with a Leonid meteor storm in 2020, but it’s always worth watching for the stray streaks from the Sickle this coming week, and marveling at what can be.

-Lead image: An all-sky capture of a 2011 Leonid. Credit: NASA/MSFC

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The body of a Ugandan Olympic athlete who was set on fire by her partner is received by family

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NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The body of Ugandan Olympic athlete Rebecca Cheptegei — who died after being set on fire by her partner in Kenya — was received Friday by family and anti-femicide crusaders, ahead of her burial a day later.

Cheptegei’s family met with dozens of activists Friday who had marched to the Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital’s morgue in the western city of Eldoret while chanting anti-femicide slogans.

She is the fourth female athlete to have been killed by her partner in Kenya in yet another case of gender-based violence in recent years.

Viola Cheptoo, the founder of Tirop Angels – an organization that was formed in honor of athlete Agnes Tirop, who was stabbed to death in 2021, said stakeholders need to ensure this is the last death of an athlete due to gender-based violence.

“We are here to say that enough is enough, we are tired of burying our sisters due to GBV,” she said.

It was a somber mood at the morgue as athletes and family members viewed Cheptegei’s body which sustained 80% of burns after she was doused with gasoline by her partner Dickson Ndiema. Ndiema sustained 30% burns on his body and later succumbed.

Ndiema and Cheptegei were said to have quarreled over a piece of land that the athlete bought in Kenya, according to a report filed by the local chief.

Cheptegei competed in the women’s marathon at the Paris Olympics less than a month before the attack. She finished in 44th place.

Cheptegei’s father, Joseph, said that the body will make a brief stop at their home in the Endebess area before proceeding to Bukwo in eastern Uganda for a night vigil and burial on Saturday.

“We are in the final part of giving my daughter the last respect,” a visibly distraught Joseph said.

He told reporters last week that Ndiema was stalking and threatening Cheptegei and the family had informed police.

Kenya’s high rates of violence against women have prompted marches by ordinary citizens in towns and cities this year.

Four in 10 women or an estimated 41% of dating or married Kenyan women have experienced physical or sexual violence perpetrated by their current or most recent partner, according to the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2022.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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The ancient jar smashed by a 4-year-old is back on display at an Israeli museum after repair

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TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — A rare Bronze-Era jar accidentally smashed by a 4-year-old visiting a museum was back on display Wednesday after restoration experts were able to carefully piece the artifact back together.

Last month, a family from northern Israel was visiting the museum when their youngest son tipped over the jar, which smashed into pieces.

Alex Geller, the boy’s father, said his son — the youngest of three — is exceptionally curious, and that the moment he heard the crash, “please let that not be my child” was the first thought that raced through his head.

The jar has been on display at the Hecht Museum in Haifa for 35 years. It was one of the only containers of its size and from that period still complete when it was discovered.

The Bronze Age jar is one of many artifacts exhibited out in the open, part of the Hecht Museum’s vision of letting visitors explore history without glass barriers, said Inbal Rivlin, the director of the museum, which is associated with Haifa University in northern Israel.

It was likely used to hold wine or oil, and dates back to between 2200 and 1500 B.C.

Rivlin and the museum decided to turn the moment, which captured international attention, into a teaching moment, inviting the Geller family back for a special visit and hands-on activity to illustrate the restoration process.

Rivlin added that the incident provided a welcome distraction from the ongoing war in Gaza. “Well, he’s just a kid. So I think that somehow it touches the heart of the people in Israel and around the world,“ said Rivlin.

Roee Shafir, a restoration expert at the museum, said the repairs would be fairly simple, as the pieces were from a single, complete jar. Archaeologists often face the more daunting task of sifting through piles of shards from multiple objects and trying to piece them together.

Experts used 3D technology, hi-resolution videos, and special glue to painstakingly reconstruct the large jar.

Less than two weeks after it broke, the jar went back on display at the museum. The gluing process left small hairline cracks, and a few pieces are missing, but the jar’s impressive size remains.

The only noticeable difference in the exhibit was a new sign reading “please don’t touch.”

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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B.C. sets up a panel on bear deaths, will review conservation officer training

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VICTORIA – The British Columbia government is partnering with a bear welfare group to reduce the number of bears being euthanized in the province.

Nicholas Scapillati, executive director of Grizzly Bear Foundation, said Monday that it comes after months-long discussions with the province on how to protect bears, with the goal to give the animals a “better and second chance at life in the wild.”

Scapillati said what’s exciting about the project is that the government is open to working with outside experts and the public.

“So, they’ll be working through Indigenous knowledge and scientific understanding, bringing in the latest techniques and training expertise from leading experts,” he said in an interview.

B.C. government data show conservation officers destroyed 603 black bears and 23 grizzly bears in 2023, while 154 black bears were killed by officers in the first six months of this year.

Scapillati said the group will publish a report with recommendations by next spring, while an independent oversight committee will be set up to review all bear encounters with conservation officers to provide advice to the government.

Environment Minister George Heyman said in a statement that they are looking for new ways to ensure conservation officers “have the trust of the communities they serve,” and the panel will make recommendations to enhance officer training and improve policies.

Lesley Fox, with the wildlife protection group The Fur-Bearers, said they’ve been calling for such a committee for decades.

“This move demonstrates the government is listening,” said Fox. “I suspect, because of the impending election, their listening skills are potentially a little sharper than they normally are.”

Fox said the partnership came from “a place of long frustration” as provincial conservation officers kill more than 500 black bears every year on average, and the public is “no longer tolerating this kind of approach.”

“I think that the conservation officer service and the B.C. government are aware they need to change, and certainly the public has been asking for it,” said Fox.

Fox said there’s a lot of optimism about the new partnership, but, as with any government, there will likely be a lot of red tape to get through.

“I think speed is going to be important, whether or not the committee has the ability to make change and make change relatively quickly without having to study an issue to death, ” said Fox.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 9, 2024.

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