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Economy

G7 nations ‘just one millimetre’ from historic tax deal

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Some of the world’s richest nations are within touching distance of a historic deal to close the net on large companies which do not pay their fair share of tax, France and Germany said on Friday after a day of talks in London.

Finance ministers from the Group of Seven rich nations are meeting in person for the first time since the start of the COVID pandemic, after U.S. President Joe Biden‘s administration gave fresh impetus to stalled global tax talks this year.

Rich nations have struggled for years to agree a way to raise more tax from large multinationals such as Google, Amazon and Facebook, which often book profits in jurisdictions where they pay little or no tax.

“We are just one millimetre away from a historic agreement,” French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told the BBC.

German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said he was “absolutely confident” that there would be an agreement by the time the meeting finishes on Saturday.

“We will have an agreement which will really change the world,” he told the BBC.

A deal could raise tens of billions of dollars for governments at a time when coffers are empty after the coronavirus pandemic.

But major disagreements do remain on both the minimum rate at which companies should be taxed, and on how the rules will be drawn up to ensure that very large companies with lower profit margins, such as Amazon, face higher taxes.

The United States has proposed a minimum global corporation tax rate of 15%, above the level in countries such as Ireland but below the lowest level in the G7.

Le Maire said this represented “only a starting point”.

“We need something that is credible,” he added. “We are still working on this very tricky point of the rate.”

Britain said talks on tax policy had been productive but differences remained. Discussions will continue over dinner.

Due to COVID restrictions, ministerial delegations have been cut down. Seating plans at the ornate 19th century mansion Lancaster House have been redesigned with the help of health officials, and British finance minister Rishi Sunak greeted leaders by bumping elbows, not shaking hands

Sunak – who has stressed the importance of face-to-face meetings for reaching agreement – told ministers earlier that the rest of the world was watching for progress.

“We cannot continue to rely on a tax system that was largely designed in the 1920s,” he said.

Le Maire said a deal would send an important signal that the G7 – the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Canada – could still be influential.

Any deal would still need much wider global buy-in, at a meeting of the G20 in Venice in July.

“It’s going to go right to the wire,” one source close to the talks said. “The United States are holding to their position, as are we.”

Japan’s finance minister Taro Aso said on Monday that he did not expect agreement this week on a specific minimum tax rate.

The U.S. Treasury expects a fuller agreement when Biden and other heads of government meet in England on June 11-13.

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Biden had been planning to raise the U.S. domestic corporate tax headline rate to as high as 28%. But on Thursday he offered to keep the rate unchanged at 21% but proposed a 15% tax floor after deductions and credits in a bid to gain support from Republicans for new spending measures.

But just as important for Britain and many other countries is that large multinationals pay more tax where they make their sales – not just where they book profits, or locate their headquarters.

“Their business model gives them chances to avoid taxes … much more than other companies,” Scholz said.

The United States wants an end to the digital services taxes which Britain, France and Italy have levied, and which it views as unfairly targeting U.S. tech giants for tax practices that European companies also use.

British, Italian and Spanish fashion, cosmetics and luxury goods exports to the United States will be among those facing new 25% tariffs later this year if there is no compromise.

The U.S. has proposed levying the new global minimum tax only on the world’s 100 largest and most profitable companies.

Britain, Germany and France are open to this approach but want to ensure companies such as Amazon – which has lower profit margins than other tech firms – do not escape the net.

(Additional reporting by William James and Leigh Thomas; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Mike Harrison and Giles Elgood)

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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