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German Economy Contracts Amid Virus Curbs, Supply Snags – BNN

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(Bloomberg) — Germany’s economy shrank 0.7% in the fourth quarter with consumers spooked by another wave of Covid-19 infections and factories reeling from supply-chain problems. 

The figures reported by the nation’s statistics office are in line with an earlier estimate, but missed expectations by economists for a contraction of 0.3%. With no easing of coronavirus restrictions in sight and manufacturing constraints only starting to ease, Europe’s largest economy risks falling into its second recession of the pandemic. 

France and Spain meanwhile reported faster-than-expected growth. Rising consumer spending and investment in the former powered an expansion of 0.7%, output in the latter was up 2% at the end of last year.

In Germany, private consumption declined in the fourth quarter along with construction. The economy grew 2.8% last year, slightly more than reported earlier.

BioNTech SE, which developed one of the world’s first coronavirus vaccines with Pfizer Inc., contributed about half a percentage point to annual growth. Still, the economy remained 1.5% smaller than before the pandemic, the statistics office said.

“With this weak fourth quarter, the likelihood of Germany being in an outright recession at the turn of the year has increased,” said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING. “High energy prices will continue weighing on private consumption, even if social restrictions are lifted in the coming weeks.”

At the start of 2022, the coronavirus crisis continues to rage in Germany. The omicron variant has sparked record infections and prompted curbs on restaurants and other leisure activities, targeting mainly unvaccinated people. 

What Bloomberg Economics Says…

“The omicron wave has yet to peak in Germany and we have not seen any meaningful pickup in contact-intensive activity at the start of the year. Even so, the experience from countries like the U.K. is that an intense period of high infections can also past swiftly. We are expecting the German economy to rebound somewhat later in 1Q as cases fall.”

–Jamie Rush, chief European economist. For full REACT, click here

Health Minister Karl Lauterbach has predicted the current wave will only peak in mid-February, leaving little leeway to loosen restrictions even as hospitalization rates remain in check.

At the same time, supply constraints that have hampered the country’s manufacturing sector are only easing gradually, and the spread of omicron in Asia raises the specter of a setback.

Germany was the only European country that saw car sales shrinking in 2021, illustrating its strong exposure to the chip-supply crisis. Volkswagen AG deliveries dropped to the lowest in a decade, despite robust orders.

Heightening tensions with Russia over Ukraine, which could send energy prices even higher, has emerged as another risk. The German government this week predicted 2022 growth of 3.6%, down from an earlier estimate of 4.1%. 

Read more: ECB’s Simkus Warns of Major Economic Risk From Ukraine Tensions

Businesses are still optimistic that Germany’s economy will stage a strong comeback this year. A confidence indicator for January improved more than analysts had predicted amid hopes that supplies become more readily available and consumers spend at least some of their excess savings. 

Puma SE has already benefited from a rebound in demand. The sports-gear maker posted record sales and earnings last year.

(Updates with comment from economists starting in sixth paragraph)

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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