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German Inflation Slows as Optimism in Economic Rebound Wanes

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(Bloomberg) — German inflation slowed after two months of accelerating as the country’s economic recovery showed signs of stalling.

Consumer prices rose 2.5% from a year earlier in June — down from 2.8% in May and in line with a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Energy costs continued to decline, while goods eased and services, under particular scrutiny now, were unchanged at 3.9%.

Separate reports Friday showed inflation also moderated last month in France and Spain. While picking up a touch in Italy, it remained below 1%. A gauge for the 20-nation euro zone will come on Tuesday, with analysts predicting a slowdown to 2.5% from 2.6%.

The scale of the retreat toward the 2% target will determine how quickly the European Central Bank can lower interest rates following an initial move last month. Other factors weighing on the minds of policymakers include the political turmoil in France and the actions of other major central banks like the Federal Reserve.

In Germany, faltering sentiment may have damped price pressures. Consumers and firms weren’t as optimistic as anticipated on Europe’s biggest economy lately. Private-sector business activity has also been softer than estimated.

Data remain tricky to interpret, however, as the impact of volatile energy costs a year ago washes out of the statistics. The Bundesbank expects inflation to ease slightly until September before picking up again by year-end. While the economy “continues to face headwinds, there are increasing bright spots,” it said last month.

Wage growth poses an upside risk to prices. Negotiated pay increased 6.2% in the first quarter, and demands by Germany’s largest union for a 7% boost for almost 4 million workers in the metal and electric-parts industries suggest pressure will persist.

While the ECB sees inflation in the 20-nation euro zone back at 2% toward the end of 2025, the Bundesbank predicts an average of 2.2% next year for Germany.

Joachim Nagel, who heads the country’s central bank, has warned against complacency — pointing to “still very sticky” underlying prices. He’s stressed that the ECB won’t now automatically lower rates, having made an initial reduction.

In a speech at a Frankfurt conference, he highlighted his nation’s muted economic prospects and appealed to politicians to lay foundations for stronger momentum.

“Although there are some rays of hope and the German economy is slowly regaining its footing, in many international comparisons Germany is lagging far behind in terms of growth — and in some cases is even at the bottom of the league,” he said.

Above all, he added, more investment is needed to master the green transition and capitalize on digital technologies, though there’s been no sign of a spending boom to date.

—With assistance from Kristian Siedenburg and Joel Rinneby.

(Updates with comments from Bundesbank president in last three paragraphs.)

 

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Statistics Canada reports real GDP grew 0.2% in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says real gross domestic product grew 0.2 per cent in July, following essentially no change in June, helped by strength in the retail trade sector.

The agency says the growth came as services-producing industries grew 0.2 per cent for the month.

The retail trade sector was the largest contributor to overall growth in July as it gained one per cent, helped by the motor vehicles and parts dealers subsector which gained 2.8 per cent.

The public sector aggregate, which includes the educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration sectors, gained 0.3 per cent, while the finance and insurance sector rose 0.5 per cent.

Meanwhile, goods-producing industries gained 0.1 per cent in July as the utilities sector rose 1.3 per cent and the manufacturing sector grew 0.3 per cent.

Statistics Canada’s early estimate for August suggests real GDP for the month was essentially unchanged, as increases in oil and gas extraction and the public sector were offset by decreases in manufacturing and transportation and warehousing.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 27, 2024.

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S&P/TSX composite tops 24,000 points for first time, U.S. markets also rise Thursday

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index closed above 24,000 for the first time Thursday as strength in base metals and other sectors outweighed losses in energy, while U.S. markets also rose and the S&P 500 notched another record as well.

“Another day, another record,” said Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones.

“The path of least resistance continues to be higher.”

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 127.95 points at 24,033.83.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 260.36 points at 42,175.11. The S&P 500 index was up 23.11 points at 5,745.37, while the Nasdaq composite was up 108.09 points at 18,190.29.

Markets continue to be optimistic about an economic soft landing, said Kourkafas, after the U.S. Federal Reserve last week announced an outsized cut to its key interest rate following months of speculation about when it would start easing policy.

Economic data Thursday added to the story that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite higher rates, said Kourkafas.

The U.S. economy grew at a three-per-cent annual rate in the second quarter, one report said, picking up from the first quarter of the year. Another report showed fewer U.S. workers applied for unemployment benefits last week.

The data shows “the economy remains on strong footing while the Fed is pivoting now in a decisive way towards an easier policy,” said Kourkafas.

The Fed’s decisive move gave investors more reason to believe that a soft landing is still the “base case scenario,” he said, “and likely reduces the downside risks for a recession by having the Fed moving too late or falling behind the curve.”

North of the border, the TSX usually gets a boost from Wall St. strength, said Kourkafas, but on Thursday the index also reflected some optimism of its own as the Bank of Canada has already cut rates three times to address weakening in the economy.

“The Bank of Canada likely now will be emboldened by the Fed,” he said.

“They didn’t want to move too far ahead of the Fed, and now that the Fed moved in a bigger-than-expected way, that provides more room for the Bank of Canada to cut as aggressively as needed to support the economy, given that inflation is within the target range.”

The TSX has also been benefiting from strength in materials after China’s central bank announced several measures meant to support the company’s economy, said Kourkafas.

However, energy stocks dragged on the Canadian index as oil prices fell Thursday following a report that Saudi Arabia was preparing to abandon its unofficial US$100-per-barrel price target for crude as it prepares to increase its output.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.22 cents US compared with 74.28 cents US on Wednesday.

The November crude oil contract was down US$2.02 at US$67.67 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down seven cents at US$2.75 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$10.20 at US$2,694.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up 15 cents at US$4.64 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stocks also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal sector, while U.S. stock markets were also higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was 143.00 points at 24,048.88.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 174.22 points at 42,088.97. The S&P 500 index was up 10.23 points at 5,732.49, while the Nasdaq composite was up 30.02 points at 18,112.23.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.23 cents US compared with 74.28 cents US on Wednesday.

The November crude oil contract was down US$1.68 at US$68.01 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down six cents at US$2.75 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$4.40 at US$2,689.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up 13 cents at US$4.62 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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