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OTTAWA – NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh may hold the key to trigger the next election now that he’s axed his political pact with the Liberals, but strategists say that could prove to be both an asset and a liability.

Singh put an end to the deal the Liberals have relied on since 2022 to keep their minority government from toppling, but he has not signalled plans to vote to bring down that government before the next scheduled election.

The party deliberately spread word that the end of the deal does not mean an election is looming, but that each vote would be considered on a case-by-case basis.

Singh would not take any questions after announcing the news in a video on social media Wednesday, but is expected to hold a press conference Thursday in Toronto.

The decision comes as the Conservatives lead both the Liberals and the NDP in the polls, and Singh tries to position himself as the only viable alternative to Tory Leader Pierre Poilievre.

The NDP will likely want some runway to differentiate themselves from the Liberals before the next election, said Mélanie Richer, Singh’s former director of communications and a principal with Earnscliffe Strategies.

“I think they really need to spend the next year talking to those voters who are looking for change in a way that’s a little bit less close to the government, that shows the concrete things that they’ve been able to do to make people’s lives better,” she said.

The deal has accomplished most of what the NDP had demanded, including a new national dental-care program, and, from a strategic perspective, gave Singh some added credibility with voters, she said.

But while the New Democrats have won over some support from former Liberal voters, they’ve also lost ground to the Conservatives, she said.

Singh may want time to offer his “vision of change that’s very different from the Conservatives,” she said.

Poilievre has won favour with working-class voters that in the past may have traditionally supported the NDP in key ridings, including in northern Ontario, said Conservative strategist Ginny Roth.

The Conservative leader is likely to continue to take aim at Singh for propping up the government, as he has for months.

Just hours after Singh said that he had pulled out of the deal, Poilievre had already called the announcement a “stunt” and challenged Singh to vote to bring down the government at the next opportunity.

“There’s an easy way for the NDP to avoid that line of attack, and that’s to either defeat the government, or to demand something from the government that the government’s not willing to give, or that will be difficult for the government to give,” said Roth, who served as Poilievre’s director of communications during his leadership race.

“They haven’t done that since 2015 and I don’t think they have any plans to.”

Continuing to support the government in upcoming confidence votes could be a political risk for Singh, said Andrew Perez, a longtime Liberal and strategist with Perez Strategies.

But it’s likely less of a risk than remaining tied to the Liberals at this point, he said.

“Pierre Poilievre will no doubt attack Singh as being someone that propped up Trudeau and has no credibility,” he said.

“I think it will all come down to how persuasively he is able to communicate.”

The political landscape was drastically different when the deal was signed in 2022.

The Liberal government had just renewed its mandate less than a year earlier. The federal government had recently declared a state of emergency after the “Freedom Convoy” demonstration gridlocked downtown Ottawa and international border crossings in protest against COVID-19 restrictions. The Russian invasion of Ukraine had just begun. And Pierre Poilievre had not yet been elected leader of the Conservatives.

Throughout the last tumultuous few years, Singh has helped Trudeau hold onto the longest-serving minority government in a very long time, Perez said.

If Singh’s decision leads to an early election now, it would be a political win for Poilievre’s Conservatives, he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 5, 2024.

MONTREAL – One familiar face is conspicuously absent from a federal byelection campaign in Montreal that could have major implications for the Liberal government.

As candidates embark on the home stretch of the campaign in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, their election signs are everywhere — at major intersections, on side streets, fixed to lampposts, beneath stop signs.

Alongside photos of the candidates are images of their leaders: Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, smiling against a backdrop of a Canadian flag; Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet, smiling against a pale blue backdrop; NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, smiling against a backdrop of some sort of greenery.

But campaign signs featuring Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — smiling or otherwise — are nowhere to be found.

The riding, in Montreal’s southwest, has long been a Liberal stronghold. Former cabinet minister David Lametti held it from 2015 until he resigned in January. But with the Liberals lagging in the polls, LaSalle—Émard—Verdun could be up for grabs this time around, with one survey suggesting both the NDP and the Bloc are competitive. Voters will go to the polls on Sept. 16.

The absence of Trudeau images is not surprising for a governing party well into its third term, said former Liberal staffer Carlene Variyan. “The early years of a governing party’s life cycle tend to place the party leader at the centre of its branding, with the outer years being characterized by a greater focus on the party name and brand,” she said.

Photos of Trudeau have appeared on campaign signs in general elections past. Andrew Perez, principal at Perez Strategies and a Liberal strategist, said he remembers volunteering during the 2015 campaign, when Trudeau first came to power. At the time, he said, “Trudeau was the brand … and visibly that was the focus of the signage.”

Nearly a decade later, though, Trudeau’s brand has been badly tarnished. “In past elections, Trudeau was front and centre in all the messaging of the campaign. His picture was everywhere,” said Vincent Raynauld, affiliate professor of communications at Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières. “The novelty of Trudeau and the youth and the positive energy … is not necessarily there this time around. So I think they’re going to try to find other ways to energize the public.”

Party spokesperson Parker Lund said in an email that the Liberal party signs in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, featuring photos of candidate Laura Palestini, “are the same design that we have used in previous Quebec byelections.”

The most recent Quebec byelection was in June 2023, when Liberal Anna Gainey won a seat in another Montreal riding. Before that, there hadn’t been a byelection in the province since before the 2019 election.

Lund pointed out that the phrase “Team Trudeau” is printed on the bottom of all of Palestini’s campaign signs, and the prime minister visited the riding last month. Voters in the riding will also be receiving “a number of Liberal print products, including a letter from Justin Trudeau,” ahead of election day, he said.

Perez said political operatives have long used subtle changes in branding and signage to telegraph messages to voters. He recalled that during the 2004 election, then-prime minister Paul Martin included his name and image on every campaign sign featuring local candidates. He said it was a “deliberate attempt to distance the Liberal party” from Martin’s predecessor, Jean Chrétien.

A recent Léger poll found the Liberals lagging the Conservatives in all regions of the country except Quebec. But even in Quebec, the poll found the Liberals running in second place behind the Bloc Québécois. Earlier this summer, Trudeau suffered a major blow when the Liberals lost another former stronghold, Toronto—St. Paul’s, in a June byelection. The loss prompted calls for the prime minister to step aside.

LaSalle—Émard—Verdun is a “crown jewel of the party,” Perez said, pointing out that it was Martin’s seat for 20 years, under the old name of LaSalle—Émard. If the Liberals were to lose it, he said, “it will blow open the doors yet again for another debate around Trudeau’s future.”

Perez said the situation is further complicated by the NDP’s decision Wednesday to pull out of the supply-and-confidence agreement that has helped keep the minority Liberal government in power. That decision means the Liberals will now have to seek support from opposition parties on a case-by-case basis on key votes to avoid triggering an election.

The Montreal byelection will feature two municipal councillors, Palestini and NDP candidate Craig Sauvé. The Bloc candidate is longtime political staffer Louis-Philippe Sauvé, and business owner Louis Ialenti is running for the Conservatives.

The ballot will include a record 91 candidates, most of whom are linked to the Longest Ballot Committee, a group protesting Canada’s first-past-the-post voting system. Elections Canada is warning that the large number of candidates could cause delays when the ballots, which will be nearly a metre long, are counted on voting day.

The agency says it has recruited more workers to count votes cast during advance polls, which open Friday, and workers will start counting the advance ballots before polls close on Sept. 16. Elections Canada also says it is running simulations to help prepare for election night, which include going through “the whole counting process to see how long it takes to open a ballot box, unfold all the ballots, count the votes, deal with any objections and report results.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 5, 2024.

HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia legislature is set to open today for its fall sitting.

The early September return has added to speculation of a possible election call later this fall, but Premier Tim Houston will only say that he’s excited about his government’s legislative agenda.

Houston says the Progressive Conservatives still have “lots to do” on behalf of Nova Scotians, but he wasn’t specific about pending legislation when asked about his priorities on Wednesday.

In June, he cast doubt on whether he will adhere to the fixed provincial election date his party passed into law soon after coming to power, which set the date for July 15, 2025.

The Opposition Liberals and the NDP say they are ready for any scenario and remain focused on their own priorities for the sitting.

Both parties say they will highlight the need to deal with cost of living issues, including the shortage of affordable housing and the lack of access to primary health care.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 5, 2024.

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