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Germany Warns More Commercial Real Estate Pain Ahead

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(Bloomberg) — German’s top bank watchdog warned that lenders with large exposures to commercial real estate are in store for more pain as valuations for such assets are set to tumble further.

The current troubles of real estate investors and developers mean they will seek to sell more properties, extending the slump in the asset class, Mark Branson, the president of BaFin, said at a conference in Frankfurt on Monday.

“This market, especially in office and retail, will remain under a lot of pressure and result in losses for banks,” Branson said.

German banks have already started to set aside money for losses on commercial real estate loans as real estate companies such as Adler Group SA struggle under a debt load built up when benchmark interest rates were still negative. Bloomberg reported earlier this month that European bank regulators are monitoring the difficulties besetting the empire of Austrian mogul Rene Benko, which includes prime commercial real estate from Hamburg to Berlin and Munich, as they eye theoretical ripple effects across commercial real estate markets.

Commercial real estate has been one of the assets hit hardest by a rapid increase in interest rates as developers face a surge in borrowing costs as well as shifts in behavior that started in the pandemic. The industry has also seen a drought of deals for over a year now, making it hard to know whether the values banks record in their loan book are accurate.

Branson said that while the developments in commercial real estate won’t spark a crisis, banks with higher exposures to the sector could face more difficulties. He didn’t name any banks or real estate companies.

Speaking earlier at the conference, Thomas Gross, the chief executive officer of German lender Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen, said commercial real estate is suffering from writedowns and high refinancing costs.

“This phase isn’t a question of weeks and months,” said the CEO of the bank more commonly known as Helaba. “We assume that this will stretch toward 2025, so the next 12 to 18 months.”

 

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Mortgage rule changes will help spark demand, but supply is ‘core’ issue: economist

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TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.

The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.

However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.

Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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National housing market in ‘holding pattern’ as buyers patient for lower rates: CREA

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OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.

The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.

On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.

CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”

The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.

The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Two Quebec real estate brokers suspended for using fake bids to drive up prices

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MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.

Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.

She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.

The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.

One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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