The Research Brief is a short take about interesting academic work.
The big idea
The number of people living with diabetes worldwide is on pace to more than double in the next three decades, for a total of 1.3 billion people by 2050. That is one of the key findings from our study on the global burden of diabetes recently published in The Lancet.
We analyzed and synthesized all available epidemiological data on diabetes burden – defined as health decline due to diabetes captured through the number of cases, disease severity and deaths. Our study included more than 27,000 data sources to produce estimates of diabetes prevalence, disability and deaths for 204 countries and territories from 1990 through 2021. Using a modeling tool that takes into account sociodemographic factors and obesity, we projected diabetes prevalence out to 2050.
We also estimated the proportion of diabetes disability and death attributable to specific risk factors related to obesity, diet, physical activity, environment or occupation, tobacco use and alcohol use.
This analysis is part of the larger Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, which has quantified health decline due to hundreds of diseases, injuries and risk factors since 1990. Thousands of health experts and researchers around the world both contribute to and use estimates from this study, which is continually updated.
Our team projected that every country is expected to experience an increase in diabetes cases by 2050. In the regions that are expected to be hardest hit – including North Africa and the Middle East and Pacific island nations – there are countries where as many as 1 in 5 people could be living with diabetes in 2050 if current trends continue. Among older adults in these regions, diabetes prevalence is expected to be even higher.
While both Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes are characterized by high levels of blood sugar, also known as glucose, Type 2 is a largely preventable disease that occurs because of gradual insulin resistance and is commonly diagnosed among adults. Type 1, on the other hand, is an autoimmune disease where the body cannot produce insulin; it typically develops during childhood or adolescence.
The vast majority of new diabetes cases in the next three decades are projected to be Type 2. We expect the two primary drivers will be aging populations and increases in obesity. In 2021, obesity was the most important risk factor for Type 2 diabetes, accounting for more than half of disability and death from the disease.
Why it matters
People living with diabetes are at significantly higher risk of developing and dying from other major diseases, including ischemic heart disease and stroke, and from complications such as vision loss and foot ulcers. This compounds the stress of diabetes on health care systems, requiring more comprehensive screening and management. However, a study found that fewer than 1 in 10 people with diabetes in low- and middle-income countries have access to comprehensive diabetes treatment.
While our study reports on diabetes trends and risk factors over time by age, sex and geography, there are other factors that offer clues to why diabetes disproportionately afflicts certain populations.
The rapid increase in the number of people living with diabetes that we project in our study doesn’t have to become a reality. Understanding how these trends are tied in with how people live is the first step toward changing the course of this disease over the coming decades.
HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government says it could be months before it reveals how many people are on the wait-list for a family doctor.
The head of the province’s health authority told reporters Wednesday that the government won’t release updated data until the 160,000 people who were on the wait-list in June are contacted to verify whether they still need primary care.
Karen Oldfield said Nova Scotia Health is working on validating the primary care wait-list data before posting new numbers, and that work may take a matter of months. The most recent public wait-list figures are from June 1, when 160,234 people, or about 16 per cent of the population, were on it.
“It’s going to take time to make 160,000 calls,” Oldfield said. “We are not talking weeks, we are talking months.”
The interim CEO and president of Nova Scotia Health said people on the list are being asked where they live, whether they still need a family doctor, and to give an update on their health.
A spokesperson with the province’s Health Department says the government and its health authority are “working hard” to turn the wait-list registry into a useful tool, adding that the data will be shared once it is validated.
Nova Scotia’s NDP are calling on Premier Tim Houston to immediately release statistics on how many people are looking for a family doctor. On Tuesday, the NDP introduced a bill that would require the health minister to make the number public every month.
“It is unacceptable for the list to be more than three months out of date,” NDP Leader Claudia Chender said Tuesday.
Chender said releasing this data regularly is vital so Nova Scotians can track the government’s progress on its main 2021 campaign promise: fixing health care.
The number of people in need of a family doctor has more than doubled between the 2021 summer election campaign and June 2024. Since September 2021 about 300 doctors have been added to the provincial health system, the Health Department said.
“We’ll know if Tim Houston is keeping his 2021 election promise to fix health care when Nova Scotians are attached to primary care,” Chender said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – Newfoundland and Labrador‘s chief medical officer is monitoring the rise of whooping cough infections across the province as cases of the highly contagious disease continue to grow across Canada.
Dr. Janice Fitzgerald says that so far this year, the province has recorded 230 confirmed cases of the vaccine-preventable respiratory tract infection, also known as pertussis.
Late last month, Quebec reported more than 11,000 cases during the same time period, while Ontario counted 470 cases, well above the five-year average of 98. In Quebec, the majority of patients are between the ages of 10 and 14.
Meanwhile, New Brunswick has declared a whooping cough outbreak across the province. A total of 141 cases were reported by last month, exceeding the five-year average of 34.
The disease can lead to severe complications among vulnerable populations including infants, who are at the highest risk of suffering from complications like pneumonia and seizures. Symptoms may start with a runny nose, mild fever and cough, then progress to severe coughing accompanied by a distinctive “whooping” sound during inhalation.
“The public, especially pregnant people and those in close contact with infants, are encouraged to be aware of symptoms related to pertussis and to ensure vaccinations are up to date,” Newfoundland and Labrador’s Health Department said in a statement.
Whooping cough can be treated with antibiotics, but vaccination is the most effective way to control the spread of the disease. As a result, the province has expanded immunization efforts this school year. While booster doses are already offered in Grade 9, the vaccine is now being offered to Grade 8 students as well.
Public health officials say whooping cough is a cyclical disease that increases every two to five or six years.
Meanwhile, New Brunswick’s acting chief medical officer of health expects the current case count to get worse before tapering off.
A rise in whooping cough cases has also been reported in the United States and elsewhere. The Pan American Health Organization issued an alert in July encouraging countries to ramp up their surveillance and vaccination coverage.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.
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