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Global economy braces for impact as Israel-Hamas war deepens

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Flames and smoke billow during Israeli strikes in Gaza.
Flames and smoke billow during Israeli strikes in Gaza on Monday. Markets have reacted since the Hamas attack on Israel, but the full extent of economic impact is not yet clear. (Mohammed Salem/Reuters)

The war between Israel and Hamas poses a whole new series of risks to an already fragile global economy, and economists are warning it could take some time for the fallout to be clear.

“The global economy is limping along, not sprinting,” said International Monetary Fund chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said at a joint meeting of the IMF and the World Bank in Morocco this week.

The annual meeting and its forecasts were all overshadowed by the crisis unfolding in southern Israel and Gaza.

“It’s a humanitarian tragedy and it’s an economic shock we don’t need,” World Bank President Ajay Banga told Reuters.

Hamas militants swept across the border into Israel this weekend unleashing an unprecedented wave of attacks on villages near the Gaza border. More than 1,000 Israelis were killed, and more than 100 were dragged back into captivity in Gaza. Israeli warplanes have responded with days of airstrikes. Palestinian authorities say at least 900 people have been killed in Israeli airstrikes, and at least 4,500 have been wounded.

Abandoned and destroyed or damaged cars.
Drone video footage shows burned-out cars on the side of the road near an open-air music festival where Hamas gunmen fired on those attending. (South First Responders/Telegram/Reuters)

As the world watched those events in horror, the price of oil jumped by as much as five dollars per barrel, futures markets fell and the Israeli currency, the shekel, sunk to a seven-year low.

Since then, market reaction has been relatively subdued. But most experts believe that’s because no one really knows what will happen in the days ahead.

“Anything in the Middle East has always been high-risk of spreading,” said Paul Samson, the president of the Centre for International Governance Innovation in Waterloo, Ont.

Risk of conflict widening

On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Hamas had made a mistake “of historic proportions.”

“We will exact a price that will be remembered by them and Israel’s other enemies for decades to come,” he said in a prepared statement.

Israel has called up 300,000 reservists and mobilized tanks along the border. The U.S. is moving an aircraft carrier strike group into the region as a show of support for its ally Israel.

Experts say all that raises the stakes that the conflict could widen.

“If this expands and brings in other parties, then the outlook is for even a weaker global economy, even more inflationary pressures. And the markets are going to be finding it hard to deal with that,” renowned economist Mohamed El-Erian told the financial news channel CNBC.

Right now, oil traders seem to be watching along with the rest of the world unsure of what comes next.

Rory Johnston, the founder and publisher of the newsletter Commodity Context, says the conflict has a very real risk of drawing in two of the region’s biggest oil suppliers: Saudi Arabia and Iran.

“Everyone knows that Iran supports Hamas,” said Johnston. “What we don’t know is the extent of culpability in the explicit planning and green-lighting of this attack.”

Iran’s top authority, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, denied any involvement, but heralded the attack as a success.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia was nearing completion of what would have been a historic peace and trade deal with Israel. That came after Israel signed trade agreements with Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates in 2020.

Johnston says the Saudi deal reportedly involved boosting oil production, which would cut the cost of gasoline for global consumers. But now, he says, it’s unclear what will happen with the Saudi deal adding yet another layer of complexity to the oil market’s reaction.

“So, we have the two countries [Iran and Saudi Arabia] that have had the most variable oil production over the past year are now explicitly being implicated and pulled into the conflict and how it evolves from here,” he said.

What this could mean for inflation

The price of oil is directly related to the cost-of-living crisis throughout the Western world. If crude oil prices rise, that means consumers pay more at the pumps.

A man rides a camel near an oil field as the sun is setting.
Saudi Arabia was reportedly considering boosting oil production if it could close a trade deal with Israel. (AP Photo/Hasan Jamali, File) (Hasan Jamali/The Associated Press)

“We were hoping inflation was going down,” said Mark Manger, a professor of political economy at the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy.

Beyond the price of oil, he says the price of bonds has ticked up since the weekend as investors seek out safe havens like U.S. treasuries and German bonds.

And, he says uncertainty and war weigh heavily on global trade as people quickly try to avoid risk.

“Fair to say, all of this is inflationary,” he said.

Samson says consumers, investors and policymakers alike need to brace for the very real chance that however this plays out, it will take a long time to resolve.

“I can’t imagine that the dust is settled within a year,” he told CBC News. “That doesn’t mean a conflict going on, but you know, there is a lot of dust to settle here.”

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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