WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The global economy is recovering from the depths of the coronavirus crisis, but there are signs of slowing momentum in countries with resurging infection rates, the International Monetary Fund said in a new report for G20 major economies.
FILE PHOTO: IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during a conference hosted by the Vatican on economic solidarity, at the Vatican, February 5, 2020. REUTERS/Remo Casilli
The report, released ahead of this week’s virtual meetings of finance officials and leaders from the Group of 20 countries, underscored the uneven nature of the global recovery and warned the crisis would likely leave deep, unequal scars.
In a separate blog post, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva hailed what she called significant progress in the development of vaccines to vanquish a virus that has claimed more than a million lives around the globe and resulted in tens of millions of job losses.
But she cautioned that the economic path ahead remains “difficult and prone to setbacks.”
The IMF last month forecast a 2020 global contraction of 4.4%, with the global economy expected to rebound to growth of 5.2% in 2021, but said the outlook for many emerging markets had worsened.
Georgieva said data received since that forecast confirmed a continuing recovery, with the United States and other advanced economies reporting stronger-than-expected economic activity in the third quarter.
But she said the most recent data for contact-intensive service industries pointed to a slowing momentum in economies where the pandemic was resurging.
While fiscal spending of nearly $12 trillion and monetary policies had averted even worse outcomes, poverty and inequality were increasing, and more support was needed, the IMF said.
New outbreaks and more stringent mobility restrictions, and delays in vaccine development and distribution could reduce growth, increase public debt and worsen economic scarring.
Georgieva urged G20 countries to act swiftly and in a united manner to provide continued support and ensure enough vaccines were available around the world, warning that no recovery could be sustained unless the pandemic was defeated everywhere.
The head of the World Health Organization (WHO) on Monday said G20 leaders had an opportunity to commit financially and politically to the COVAX global facility, set up to provide COVID-19 vaccines to poorer countries.
The United States, under outgoing President Donald Trump, has threatened to pull out of the WHO, and has refused to join the COVAX facility, but experts say his successor, Democrat Joe Biden, could change course after he takes office on Jan. 20.
Georgieva also called on G20 leaders to commit to increased investment in green technologies and increases in carbon prices, estimating that doing so could boost global gross domestic product and create about 12 million jobs over a decade.
Biden has also pledged to rejoin the 2015 Paris climate change agreement that Trump quit.
Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Ana Nicolaci da Costa
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says retail sales rose 0.4 per cent to $66.6 billion in August, helped by higher new car sales.
The agency says sales were up in four of nine subsectors as sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers rose 3.5 per cent, boosted by a 4.3 per cent increase at new car dealers and a 2.1 per cent gain at used car dealers.
Core retail sales — which exclude gasoline stations and fuel vendors and motor vehicle and parts dealers — fell 0.4 per cent in August.
Sales at food and beverage retailers dropped 1.5 per cent, while furniture, home furnishings, electronics and appliances retailers fell 1.4 per cent.
In volume terms, retail sales increased 0.7 per cent in August.
Looking ahead, Statistics Canada says its advance estimate of retail sales for September points to a gain of 0.4 per cent for the month, though it cautioned the figure would be revised.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 25, 2024.
OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.
Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.
The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.
As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.
The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.
A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.
In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.
The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.
According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.
The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.
Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.
OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.
However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.
The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.
The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.
The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
