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Globe editorial: How to put a ceiling on housing prices – The Globe and Mail

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There’s a widely held belief that real estate prices will, inevitably, only rise higher and higher. There are, however, long periods when that maxim is decidedly not the case.

Toronto is a prime example. After a surge in the 1980s, the Toronto market peaked in 1989 and didn’t regain that high until 2002 – more than a decade later. A 1995 peak in Vancouver was the high-water mark until eight years later. In the United States, it took a decade after the 2006 peak before that level was seen again.

Each example is different yet each shares central elements, from burst bubbles after manias to the gyration of interest rates and economic woes. What’s clear is real estate can go sideways for a long time, even if everyone believes the natural direction is up.

As Canada works to build a path to housing affordability, the most important thing is new supply – a lot of new homes. But just as important is changing the culture, the mindset that prices are destined to escalate.

Housing has long been expensive but the situation is now extreme. Five years ago, about 60 per cent of households could afford a condo. Last year, it was less than half. And that’s for a condo.

After many years of dizzying gains in the price to buy or rent a home, it’s become widely clear that higher and higher isn’t ideal and comes with many costs.

How to restore some semblance of affordability has shot to the centre of the political debate. This week, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., which has called for millions of new homes, held a conference on the question in Ottawa. The Globe on Wednesday illuminated how we got here in a series of charts, from record-low rental vacancies to the way-too-long time it takes to get new housing approved and built.

Many new homes are needed, yes. As this space showed last week, a burst of construction in booming Austin, Tex., has helped reduce the price to rent.

The shift in entrenched philosophy is also necessary. We need to rein in the housing market mindset that up is good, so pervasive in North America.

The mentality leads to speculation, starting with many families betting on the ever-rising value of their home as a pot of retirement savings. Generation Squeeze, an advocacy group for younger Canadians, puts it this way: “break the addiction to high home values.”

The celebration of higher home prices is deeply ingrained. Ownership in Canada peaked in 2011 at almost seven out of 10 households. Almost all political leaders own their homes and many are landlords. That’s the reason that as things started spinning out of control in the 2010s, blame was first cast on factors such as foreigners or investor speculation without grappling with the real problem: not enough housing.

In each example of real estate markets going sideways for a long time, Toronto, Vancouver, the U.S., it was always considered bad news. The Wall Street Journal lamented Austin’s shift from “America’s hottest housing market” to “running in reverse.”

The bigger goal is to rein in prices, bring them closer to people’s incomes.

The Teranet-National Bank house price index shows the price of housing rose 4.2 per cent annually from 2000 to this year, excluding inflation. Household incomes, according to Statistics Canada, rose by far less, about 1.2 per cent a year from 2000 through 2021.

The goal of a steady surge of new supply would be to establish a lasting buyer’s market. Critics of new supply will often say it won’t ease prices but big housing investors specifically warn shareholders that “competition for residents” and an “oversupply” of homes will affect the prices they charge.

Instead of hoping and cheering prices will someday soon recoup and exceed previous highs, the target has to shift to an extended, and welcome, period of nominal gains. If home prices this century had risen at only the rate of inflation, they would be less than half of what they are – and at levels last seen in 2006. Beyond a return to affordability, a market that offered such nominal returns is what would undercut and eventually end housing speculation.

Decades of culture and policy got us here. It will take time to restore affordability. It will take time to change the culture. But as Canada sets the initial foundations to allow for many more new homes, it is starting on the path to affordability.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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