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Gold is now looking past the political games – Kitco NEWS

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(Kitco News) – Hopefully, we have just one more weekend to go before we can put this year’s U.S. general election behind us.

With the COVID-19 pandemic devastating the U.S. and the global economy, this election season has been one for the history books and has been chock full of uncertainty and turmoil. According to political pundits, there are growing expectations of a blue wave in Washington with the Democrats taking control of Congress and the White House; however, memories of 2016 continue to loom large on the horizon, so at this point, anything could happen.

Regardless of what the government looks like for 2021, they will have a heck of a mess to clean up. Earlier this week, economic data showed that the U.S economy grew 33.1 % in the third quarter, however, this comes after the economy contracted by more than 31% in the second quarter. As the dust starts to settle, it looks like the U.S. economy will contract around 4% this year.

This means that no matter what, the U.S. is going to need to pump more capital and liquidity into the economy. The government will have to continue to support businesses and consumers who have been impacted by the global pandemic.

And the U.S. isn’t alone. The ECB continues to take the reins as it tries to provide support for the European economy. Thursday, ECB president Christine Lagarde basically said that more central bank stimulus will be coming in December as it “recalibrates” its financial instruments.

“We have little doubt that circumstances will warrant a recalibration and implementation of monetary policy,” she said during her regular press conference.

The inevitable scenario of stimulus on a global scale is what is going to drive gold prices higher. More government and central bank spending will add to the growing deficit, lead to more money printing. The only direction central bank balance sheets are going is up.

Earlier in the week, I had a chance to talk to Michael Howell, managing director at CrossBorder Capital, who said that his firm sees global central bank balance sheets growing by about 30% this year and is forecasting further liquidity growth of between 15% and 20% in 2021. He added that global liquidity could push to as high as $195 trillion, more than double global GDP.

“You are going to have so much liquidity in markets that gold has to go higher,” he said.

He is not the only one signaling the alarm when it comes to the growing inflation threat. Thorsten Polleit, chief economist at Degussa said that instead of looking at consumer inflation, investors need to pay attention to money supply growth.

Instead of showing up in consumer markets, inflation is current driving asset markets, pushing equity markets, bond prices, and commodity prices higher.

“It may take a while for inflation in asset markets to show up in consumer prices it will eventually happen,” he added.

Both economists see gold as a must-have for investors to protect their wealth.

“Holding gold is the best way of getting a risk reduction and return enhancement in your portfolio,” he said. 

“Holding gold, especially at current prices, is a wise thing to do,” said Polleit.

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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