(Kitco News) All eyes are on the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Friday morning, with gold bulls betting on more patience from the central bank when it comes to the highly anticipated tapering announcement.
Investors are still on the fence whether or not Powell might reveal a tapering plan at the Jack Hole Symposium, which is being held virtually this year. However, the release of the more cautious July FOMC meeting minutes has shifted the tapering timeline to the end of the year.
“It’s all gone very quiet in the markets, which is hardly surprising under the circumstances. The combination of light news flow, few economic releases and caution ahead of the Jackson Hole event has taken all of the excitement out of the markets. Instead, it’s been replaced by nervous anticipation as we wait to see what the Fed will do next,” said OANDA senior market analyst Craig Erlam. It is unlikely the markets will get any clarity on the Fed tapering its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases come Friday. In light of slightly disappointing macro data and the quickly spreading delta variant, Powell is more likely to opt for caution, Erlam added.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns out to be one big anticlimax, with Powell saying very little of note and instead insisting that the data will dictate any decisions in the upcoming meetings. In other words, the Chairman may simply kick the can down the road and buy the central bank a few more weeks,” he said on Tuesday.
Strategists at TD Securities are also not expecting any earth-shattering news when it comes to tapering.
“We expect the Chair’s speech to echo the latest July meeting minutes, suggesting that QE tapering is likely by year-end, but we don’t expect a September announcement. This leaves November and December as likely timelines for the taper announcement,” the strategists said in a note.
No clear announcement would be good news for gold, which has been sitting around the $1,800 an ounce, waiting to make a move one way or the other.
OANDA’s senior market analyst Edward Moya noted that Powell’s speech would be critical for the gold market.
“Friday will be a make-or-break moment for gold bulls, but the narrative post the last policy meeting suggests Powell will likely avoid making any firm commitments about the timing of tapering, but confirm it will be announced before the end of the year,” he said. “The $1,850 level is everything for gold and if after the Jackson Hole Symposium, prices can’t make a fresh August high, bullion investors might be quick to the sidelines.”
Until Friday at 10 a.m. E.T. time, when Powell is scheduled to speak, gold is likely to continue to trade sideways, said Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann.
“Few market participants appear willing to make any firm commitments before the speech Fed Chair Powell is due to give on Friday. Not much is likely to happen ahead of his speech … The U.S. dollar has had considerable influence on the gold price in recent weeks,” Briesemann said.
Some analysts, however, are not ruling out some new hawkish sentiment coming out of Powell’s speech.
“In order to keep this proposed timeline, Chair Powell should make it clear that tapering discussions are ongoing even as new data suggest further progress in meeting its dual mandate,” said BBH Global Currency Strategy global head Win Thin. “Our current call is for an explicit tapering announcement at the September FOMC, tapering of $20 bln in USTs and $10 bln in MBS at each meeting starting November 3, and completion by March 2022. If the economy continues to develop as the Fed expects, then this would allow for rate a waiting period of 6-9 months before lift-off in Q4 2022.”
Jackson Hole Symposium officially begins on Thursday and ends on Saturday. This year’s topic is “Macroeconomic Policy in an Uneven Economy.”
China Evergrande debt crisis is worrying investors. Why, and what’s happening? – Global News
China Evergrande Group has missed a dollar bond interest payment deadline, moving closer to a potential default and fuelling worries about a collapse that could send shockwaves through China’s economy and beyond.
WHAT IS EVERGRANDE?
Chairman Hui Ka Yan founded Evergrande in Guangzhou in 1996. It is China’s second-largest property developer with US$110 billion in sales last year, US$355 billion in assets, and over 1,300 developments nationwide. It listed in Hong Kong in 2009.
Evergrande grew rapidly through a loan-supported land-buying spree and selling apartments quickly at low margins. It has 200,000 staff and hires 3.8 million annually for developments.
Slowing growth has seen it branch into businesses such as insurance, bottled water, football and electric vehicles (EVs).
HOW DID CONCERNS ARISE OVER DEBT?
In September last year, a leaked letter showed Evergrande pleading for government support to approve a now-dropped backdoor stock market listing. Sources told Reuters the letter was authentic; Evergrande called it fake.
In June, Evergrande said it did not pay some commercial paper on time, and in July a court froze a US$20 million bank deposit held by the firm at the bank’s request.
Stocks find some footing after Evergrande relief as Beijing residents say company’s woes won’t hurt wider economy
The firm in late August said construction at some of its developments had halted due to missed payments to contractors and suppliers. Sources have told Reuters that it also missed payments to bank and trust loans in the past few weeks.
Liabilities, including payables, total 1.97 trillion yuan (US$306.3 billion) – about two per cent of China’s gross domestic product.
HOW HAS EVERGRANDE REDUCED DEBT?
Evergrande accelerated efforts to cut debt last year after regulators introduced caps on three debt ratios, dubbed the “three red lines”. It aims to meet requirements by 2022-end.
It offered steep discounts on residential developments to spur sales and sold the bulk of its commercial properties. Since the second half of 2020, it has had a US$555 million secondary share sale, raised US$1.8 billion by listing its property management unit, and saw its EV unit sell a US$3.4 billion stake.
On Sept. 14, it said asset and equity disposal plans had failed to make material progress.
WHAT’S THE RISK?
The central bank in 2018 said companies including Evergrande might pose systemic risk to China’s financial system.
The firm’s liabilities involved as many as 128 banks and over 121 non-banking institutions, the leaked letter showed.
Evergrande sell-off putting pressure on Chinese developers: analyst
Late repayments could trigger cross-defaults as many financial institutions are exposed via direct loans and indirect holdings through different financial instruments.
In the U.S. dollar bond market, Evergrande accounts for four per cent of Chinese real estate high-yielding debt, data from Singapore bank DBS showed. A default could further trigger a sell-off across high-yield credit markets.
WHAT ABOUT OPERATIONS OUTSIDE MAINLAND CHINA?
In Hong Kong, Evergrande owns an office tower and residential development as well as two nearly completed residential developments, plus a vast undeveloped land parcel.
It has spent billions of dollars acquiring stakes in automobile technology developers, including Sweden’s NEVS, the Netherlands’ e-Traction and Britain’s Protean. It also has joint ventures with Germany’s Hofer and Sweden’s Koenigsegg.
WHAT HAVE REGULATORS SAID?
The central bank and banking regulator in August ordered Evergrande to reduce debt risk.
Regulators have approved an Evergrande proposal to renegotiate payment deadlines with banks and other creditors, media reported. Guangzhou government is also seeking major lenders’ opinions about establishing a creditor committee.
Reporting by Clare Jim; Editing by Sumeet Chatterjee, Stephen Coates, Christopher Cushing and Jane Merriman
© 2021 Reuters
Some gasoline stations in U.K. run out of fuel as pandemic supply chain crisis deepens – CBC.ca
Britain’s retail industry warned the government on Friday that unless it moves to alleviate an acute shortage of truckers in the next 10 days then significant disruption was inevitable in the run-up to Christmas.
As the world’s fifth-largest economy emerges from COVID-19 lockdowns, a spike in European natural gas prices and a post-Brexit shortage of truck drivers have left Britain grappling with soaring energy prices and a potential food supply crunch.
BP had to close some of its gas stations due to the driver shortages while queues formed at some Shell stations as pumps ran dry in some places.
“We are seeing an increased demand today for fuel at some of our stations, which may in some instances result in larger queues. We are adapting our delivery schedules to ensure sufficient supplies for our customers,” a spokesperson for Shell said.
ExxonMobil’s Esso said a small number of its 200 Tesco Alliance retail sites had also been impacted in some way.
In a rush to fill up, drivers also queued at some gas stations in London and the southern English county of Kent. Diesel ran out at one station visited by Reuters.
For months supermarkets, processors and farmers have warned that a shortage of heavy goods vehicle (HGV) drivers was straining supply chains to breaking point — making it harder to get goods on to shelves.
“Unless new drivers are found in the next 10 days, it is inevitable that we will see significant disruption in the run-up to Christmas,” said Andrew Opie, director of food & sustainability at the British Retail Consortium, the retail industry’s lobby group.
“HGV drivers are the glue which hold our supply chains together,” Opie said. “Without them, we are unable to move goods from farms to warehouses to shops.”
The next 10 days are crucial because retailers ramp up supplies in October to ensure there are enough goods for the peak Christmas season.
Hauliers and logistics companies cautioned that there were no quick fixes and that any change to testing or visas would likely be too late to alleviate the pre-Christmas shortages as retailers stockpile months ahead.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government has insisted that there will be no return to the 1970s when Britain was cast by allies as the “sick man of Europe” with three-day weeks, energy shortages and rampant inflation.
As ministers urged the public not to panic buy, some of Britain’s biggest supermarkets have warned that the shortage of truck drivers could lead to just that ahead of Christmas.
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro said that Johnson, whom he met in New York, had asked him for an “emergency” agreement to supply a food product that is lacking in Britain, though the British embassy disputed Bolsonaro’s account.
Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said there was a global shortage of truckers after COVID halted lorry driver testing so Britain was doubling the number of tests. Asked if the government would ease visa rules, he said the government would look at all options.
“We’ll do whatever it takes,” Shapps told Sky News. “We’ll move heaven and earth to do whatever we can to make sure that shortages are alleviated with HGV drivers.
“We should see it smooth out fairly quickly,” he said.
British ministers are due to meet later on Friday in an attempt to hash out a fix.
The trucking industry body, the Road Haulage Association (RHA), has called on the government to allow short-term visas for international drivers to enter Britain and fill the gap, while British drivers are being trained for the future.
“It’s an enormous challenge,” Rod McKenzie, head of policy at the RHA, told Reuters. In the short-term, he said, international drivers could help, even if it may be too late to help Christmas, and in the longer term the industry needed better pay and conditions to attract workers.
“It’s a tough job. We the British do not help truckers in the way that Europeans and Americans do by giving them decent facilities,” he said.
The British haulage industry says it needs around 100,000 more drivers after 25,000 returned to Europe before Brexit and the pandemic halted the qualification process for new workers.
Shapps, who said the driver shortage was not due to Brexit, said COVID-19 exacerbated the problem given that Britain was unable to test 40,000 drivers during lockdowns.
How to unwind after a long day at the office
Whether you are returning to the office after working from home or starting a new job. Being among other hardworking people and maybe even having a boss breathing down your neck can be nerve-wracking. You might even experience that you’re more tired than usual when you climb into bed at the end of the day.
That’s why it is important to find the right way for you to unwind and clear your mind after a long day of hard work.
A quick run is great for clearing the mind. A trip to the gym can help you relieve some aggressions you might have developed throughout the day. Kicking a ball around with your friends can help you calm down. The possibilities are endless, but the results can be great.
Exercise is wonderful for your mind as well as your body. If you even bring along a couple of friends, you are sure to have a great time and forget what was bothering you to begin with.
Forget the world with online gaming
Sometimes, what you need is a distraction. A great book can help you forget the world but maybe you are too wound up to focus. In that case, a great alternative is trying an online casino in Canada. You do not even need to stay focused to have fun and forget your troubles.
The best part is that you can enjoy online casinos anywhere. On the couch in front of the TV, on the train ride home, or in bed before you go to sleep. Playing on your phone is convenient and easy. Before you realize it, you completely forgot about your stressful day.
Cook a nutritious meal
You might not feel like cooking if you are agitated after a long day. But something about creating beautiful, delicious food can be almost therapeutic. Eating meals that you love can help shift your mood without you even realizing it. At the same time, you might be able to get rid of some irritations by taking your frustrations out on the vegetables that need to be chopped. Just remember to protect your fingers.
Spend time with a loved one
Being able to vent about your day or simply get a hug can be all you need. If you live with your significant other, try to let them be there for you when you need some extra love and understanding. If you live alone, try to make time to get a cup of coffee with a friend or family member. Do not underestimate the effects of human contact. Soon, you will feel recharged and ready to take on a new day.
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