Connect with us

Business

Gold price next week: a breakout or a sideways trap? All eyes on hawkish Fed and stocks volatility – analysts – Kitco NEWS

Published

 on


(Kitco News) The gold market surprised with a breakout above $1,830 an ounce this week. And analysts say next week will be pivotal in whether gold breaks out or gets stuck in the sideways price action again.

In an unexpected move, the precious metal surged to two-month highs this week, with investors flocking to safe havens as volatility rocked the equity markets ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting next week.

With stocks and the crypto space selling off, money has to go somewhere, RJO Futures senior market strategist Frank Cholly told Kitco News.

“Gold rallied this week due to all the weakness in the equity market. Bitcoin is down pretty good too,” Cholly said. “We have a bottom in gold. The question is, are we going to go lower and stay sideways or climb towards $1,900. The precious metal needs another close above $1,830. It’s critical to hold that level before a move above $1,850.”

The move in gold did surprise some analysts because of how swift it was, said Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman.

“The gold market has been going sideways for several months. To see a breakout in either direction was a bit surprising. Coming into this week, sentiment in the gold market was very negative. Many big banks were projecting the gold price to go down. This ended up playing in gold’s favor as negative sentiment set us up for a reversion in another direction,” Millman said.

Also, rising oil prices and strong retail demand have contributed to higher price levels in gold. “Higher oil does make it more expensive to get gold out of the ground. We could see constraints in the gold supply being mined. Plus, the real demand for gold is still strong. The U.S. Mint saw 12-year highs in gold sales, while the Perth Mint saw 10-year highs. Average retail investors are still buying gold at the fastest pace in ten years,” Millman added.

All eyes are on how markets will react to the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, scheduled for Wednesday. Cholly estimates to see a steeper sell-off in U.S. equities as the central bank maintains the same level of hawkishness.

“We could go through a more meaningful correction in equities. We’ll have more evidence of the Fed’s direction. And the stock market likes to throw tantrums to get the Fed’s attention. Next week, gold’s strength will hinge on equities moving lower and reallocation of money into precious metals. Silver may even become the leader as we move forward,” Cholly pointed out.

If gold does break above $1,850, it opens the door for $1,870-80 and eventually $1,900, he added.

Fed in focus

The Fed meeting, which will be followed by the central bank Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, is the biggest macro event next week.

Analysts expect to get more hawkish clues in terms of the first rate hike in March and more clarity around the potential balance sheet runoff. Currently, markets are pricing in four rate hikes in 2022.

“With the Omicron wave now past its peak nationally, there is little to hold the Fed back, particularly if next week brings news of a further acceleration in wage growth,” said Capital Economics chief North America economist Paul Ashworth. “A dissenting vote, to raise rates immediately, from one of the hawkish regional Fed Presidents – who will be voting as part of the annual rotation – could also add fuel to the recent bond market sell-off.”



There is also a risk that the Fed could get even more hawkish by announcing the completion of the tapering process immediately, said ING chief international economist James Knightley.

“The Federal Reserve meeting will be the main focus, and we strongly suspect that we could see the announcement of the ending of QE asset purchases brought forward from the mid-March end-point currently signaled, to an immediate cessation, “Knightley wrote. “In an environment where the economy has fully recovered the lost output from the pandemic, where unemployment is back below 4% and where inflation is at near 40-year highs, it seems strange to say the least for them to continue stimulating the economy.”

Other key data releases to keep an eye on will be Tuesday’s CB consumer confidence, Thursday’s Q4 GDP number, jobless claims and durable goods orders, as well as Friday’s PCE price index.

“We expect to learn that fourth-quarter GDP growth was a slightly disappointing 4.0% annualized. But markets may focus more on the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Private wage growth hit 4.6% y/y in the third quarter and could have climbed as high 5% in the fourth, which would make a March rate hike a near-certainty,” Ashworth noted.

Adblock test (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

World's fastest passenger jet goes supersonic in tests – CNN

Published

 on


Adblock test (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

YYJ delays: RCMP called to Victoria International Airport | CTV News – CTV News VI

Published

 on


Travellers who have a flight planned at Victoria International Airport (YYJ) on Tuesday are being warned of travel disruptions due to police activity.

Sidney/North Saanich RCMP say the airport was closed after a suspicious package was discovered around 1:30 p.m.

Cpl. Andres Sanchez of the Sidney/North Saanich RCMP says that the airport was closed to all incoming and outgoing flights “out of an abundance of caution.”

He said the airport will remain closed until police “can be sure it is safe for the public to travel.”

‘INCENDIARY DEVICE’

“The package was located at the departures/check-in [area], so it was brought in by a passenger,” said Sanchez Tuesday afternoon.

The package was flagged by Canadian Air Transport Security Authority (CATSA) staff who spotted what appeared to be an “incendiary device” within a bag, he said.

“CATSA employees performed the checks that you normally do at a departure situation at the airport,” he said.

“They scanned the bag and found there were items inside that could be of a dangerous nature and at that point police were called to the scene to investigate further,” he said.

Mounties say a specialized RCMP team has been called in from the mainland to remove the bag from the premises and to “ensure the package is dealt with in a safe manner.”

PASSENGER UNDER INVESTIGATION

Sanchez says the individual who brought the bag is under investigation, but it’s unclear if any criminal charges will be recommended yet.

“Again, because we don’t know what’s in that bag we can’t speak further on that,” he said.

In the meantime, people are asked to avoid the airport for the next few hours, according to RCMP spokesperson Sgt. Chris Manseau.

Around 4:20 p.m., the airport said all scheduled commercial flights for the next two hours were cancelled.

The airport is working with airlines to keep them updated on the status of flights.

Police say they hope the airport will be able to reopen Tuesday night, but it’s uncertain how long the investigation at the property will take.

Travellers should check the YYJ website for the latest updates on their flights, according to the airport. 

Adblock test (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

​Scotia hikes dividend, smashes Q2 profit estimates – BNN

Published

 on


Columnist image

Bank of Nova Scotia opened earnings season for Canada’s Big Six on Wednesday with a beat and a dividend hike as profit climbed in all its major divisions other than capital markets.

Scotia said its net income in the fiscal second quarter, which ended April 30, rose to $2.75 billion from $2.46 billion a year earlier. On an adjusted basis, Scotia earned $2.18 per share; the average estimate among analysts tracked by Bloomberg was for $1.97 in adjusted per-share earnings.

The bank also announced its quarterly dividend will rise to $1.03 per share from $1.00, effective July 27.

“Continued loan growth of 13 per cent, an improving net interest margin, strong customer balance sheets, combined with prudent expense management, positions the Bank well to grow its earnings,” said Brian Porter, Scotia’s president and chief executive officer, in a release.

Profit in Scotia’s core Canadian banking division soared 27 per cent year-over-year to $1.18 billion in the latest quarter. Credit quality was a swing factor compared to a year earlier, as Scotia released $12 million from the unit’s provisions for loan losses in the most recent quarter; a year earlier, it booked $145 million in new provisions for loans that could go bad.

Scotia said it had an average of $271.8 billion in residential mortgages on its Canadian loan book during the fiscal second quarter, up almost three per cent from the prior quarter.

Growth in Scotia’s international division was even more pronounced, as net income surged 44 per cent year-over-year to $605 million as provisions for loan losses fell and revenue climbed.

Scotia’s Global Banking and Markets division was a profit drag, as net income slumped six per cent year-over-year to $488 million, which the bank attributed to higher non-interest expenses and lower non-interest income.

In a report to clients after the results were released, Barclays Analyst John Aiken said he doesn’t think Scotia will be an outlier with the profit slump in its capital markets business.

However, Aiken did flag that the drop in Scotia’s Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio to 11.6 per cent from 12.0 per cent in the previous quarter might not sit well with investors.

“The only real knock on the results will likely be Scotia’s lower-than-peer regulatory ratio, which was drawn down again from share repurchases. While we believe that [Scotia] is heading towards a much more efficient capital level, the market does not like outliers, particularly where capital and an uncertain outlook is concerned.”

Adblock test (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending