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Gold prices march-on above a key support structure as inflation expectations ramp-up – FXStreet

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  • Gold bulls firming their hand in the 1800 levels as confidence in the economy and inflation expectations grow.
  • A COVID-19 vaccine could be proven to be successful in a study that will start around 27th July.

Gold has made a mark on the $1,800 level, holding the support structure above $1,786/90 on a retest and pulling in commitments from the bulls.

Inflation expectations and uncertainties remain the core fundamentals of the outlook. 

We have seen risk markets improved on the back of promising vaccine results which tempered some of the bullishness out of gold momentarily.

Banks earnings season, so far, exceptionally good 

Meanwhile, US equities are a strong focus for this week considering the bank’s earnings.

As much of the coronavirus markets have been, full of surprises, it might have been somehow expected to be no different for this week’s earnings results considering it was a quarter ladened with economic lockdowns and bankruptcies in the US. 

Even with the CEO of JPMorgan Chase’s stark warnings in yesterday’s guidance yesterday, investors are committed to the bid on the back of stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings results from the majority of the results so far. 

Despite some recent positive macroeconomic data and significant, decisive government action, we still face much uncertainty regarding the future path of the economy,

Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said in a statement. 

However, we are prepared for all eventualities as our fortress balance sheet allows us to remain a port in the storm.

This is not a normal recession. The recessionary part of this you’re going to see down the road… You will see the effect of this recession. You’re just not going to see it right away because of all the stimulus.

Today, Goldman Sachs also reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings results, as surging revenues despite the pandemic buttressed the bottom line and its stock price.

Goldman’s Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) sales and trading revenue $4.23 billion, the highest quarterly revenue in nine years.

Meanwhile, equities trading generated $2.94 billion in revenues, its best quarter in 11 years. Collectively, those businesses accounted for 54% of Goldman’s quarterly revenues.

The firm’s core investment banking business delivered $2.66 billion in earnings, up 36% from the same period a year ago.

The turbulence we have seen in recent months only reinforces our commitment to the strategy we outlined earlier this year to investors,

CEO David Solomon said in a statement.

While the economic outlook remains uncertain, I am confident that we will continue to be the firm of choice for clients around the world who are looking to reshape their businesses and rebuild a more resilient economy,

he confidently added, setting the stage for higher markets for the foreseeable future. 

So where does this leave gold?

The yellow metal can take a breather on a mix of risk-on and firmer dollars, but the inflation injection could be real should the rubber hit the road in terms of a vaccine impetus.

An experimental vaccine, developed by Fauci’s colleagues at the National Institutes of Health and Moderna Inc is the first COVID-19 vaccine tested in the US and it has been reported to have heightened 45 volunteers immune systems just the way scientists had hoped.

“No matter how you slice this, this is good news,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the US government’s top infectious disease expert, told The Associated Press.

The shots are poised to begin key final testing around July 27. It will be a far larger study of 30,000-people which will prove whether or not the shots really are strong enough to protect against the coronavirus.

Any weakness from a risk-on environment should be only a temporary knee-jerk reaction.

A vaccine would do well to boost inflation expectations as confidence grows in the economic recovery, leaving real rates trading near their lows, which is a powerful driver of gold prices,

analysts at TD Securities argued. 

Looking forward, however, we may soon be entering a period in which tactical trading could reap its benefits.

After all, as inflation expectations normalize towards pre-pandemic levels, the marginal tick higher in expectations may have a more stringent hurdle.

Also, while not at worrying levels just yet, we are starting to note a renewed speculative interest in the gold futures market, as positioning levels grew substantially in recent weeks.

On the industrial side, should commodity demand resume its upward trajectory, the white metal could continue to outperform — benefiting from both the positive precious metals environment and its industrial characteristics.

That being said, we do not expect significant flow from CTA trend followers for the time being.

Gold levels

The daily chart has shows price holding above structure follwing a correction of the prior impulse. 

Bulls will look for the current resistance to turn to support to confirm an upside bias within this potential impulse. 

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Canada to donate up to 200,000 vaccine doses to combat mpox outbreaks in Africa

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The Canadian government says it will donate up to 200,000 vaccine doses to fight the mpox outbreak in Congo and other African countries.

It says the donated doses of Imvamune will come from Canada’s existing supply and will not affect the country’s preparedness for mpox cases in this country.

Minister of Health Mark Holland says the donation “will help to protect those in the most affected regions of Africa and will help prevent further spread of the virus.”

Dr. Madhukar Pai, Canada research chair in epidemiology and global health, says although the donation is welcome, it is a very small portion of the estimated 10 million vaccine doses needed to control the outbreak.

Vaccine donations from wealthier countries have only recently started arriving in Africa, almost a month after the World Health Organization declared the mpox outbreak a public health emergency of international concern.

A few days after the declaration in August, Global Affairs Canada announced a contribution of $1 million for mpox surveillance, diagnostic tools, research and community awareness in Africa.

On Thursday, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said mpox is still on the rise and that testing rates are “insufficient” across the continent.

Jason Kindrachuk, Canada research chair in emerging viruses at the University of Manitoba, said donating vaccines, in addition to supporting surveillance and diagnostic tests, is “massively important.”

But Kindrachuk, who has worked on the ground in Congo during the epidemic, also said that the international response to the mpox outbreak is “better late than never (but) better never late.”

“It would have been fantastic for us globally to not be in this position by having provided doses a much, much longer time prior than when we are,” he said, noting that the outbreak of clade I mpox in Congo started in early 2023.

Clade II mpox, endemic in regions of West Africa, came to the world’s attention even earlier — in 2022 — as that strain of virus spread to other countries, including Canada.

Two doses are recommended for mpox vaccination, so the donation may only benefit 100,000 people, Pai said.

Pai questioned whether Canada is contributing enough, as the federal government hasn’t said what percentage of its mpox vaccine stockpile it is donating.

“Small donations are simply not going to help end this crisis. We need to show greater solidarity and support,” he said in an email.

“That is the biggest lesson from the COVID-19 pandemic — our collective safety is tied with that of other nations.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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How many Nova Scotians are on the doctor wait-list? Number hit 160,000 in June

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HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government says it could be months before it reveals how many people are on the wait-list for a family doctor.

The head of the province’s health authority told reporters Wednesday that the government won’t release updated data until the 160,000 people who were on the wait-list in June are contacted to verify whether they still need primary care.

Karen Oldfield said Nova Scotia Health is working on validating the primary care wait-list data before posting new numbers, and that work may take a matter of months. The most recent public wait-list figures are from June 1, when 160,234 people, or about 16 per cent of the population, were on it.

“It’s going to take time to make 160,000 calls,” Oldfield said. “We are not talking weeks, we are talking months.”

The interim CEO and president of Nova Scotia Health said people on the list are being asked where they live, whether they still need a family doctor, and to give an update on their health.

A spokesperson with the province’s Health Department says the government and its health authority are “working hard” to turn the wait-list registry into a useful tool, adding that the data will be shared once it is validated.

Nova Scotia’s NDP are calling on Premier Tim Houston to immediately release statistics on how many people are looking for a family doctor. On Tuesday, the NDP introduced a bill that would require the health minister to make the number public every month.

“It is unacceptable for the list to be more than three months out of date,” NDP Leader Claudia Chender said Tuesday.

Chender said releasing this data regularly is vital so Nova Scotians can track the government’s progress on its main 2021 campaign promise: fixing health care.

The number of people in need of a family doctor has more than doubled between the 2021 summer election campaign and June 2024. Since September 2021 about 300 doctors have been added to the provincial health system, the Health Department said.

“We’ll know if Tim Houston is keeping his 2021 election promise to fix health care when Nova Scotians are attached to primary care,” Chender said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Newfoundland and Labrador monitoring rise in whooping cough cases: medical officer

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – Newfoundland and Labrador‘s chief medical officer is monitoring the rise of whooping cough infections across the province as cases of the highly contagious disease continue to grow across Canada.

Dr. Janice Fitzgerald says that so far this year, the province has recorded 230 confirmed cases of the vaccine-preventable respiratory tract infection, also known as pertussis.

Late last month, Quebec reported more than 11,000 cases during the same time period, while Ontario counted 470 cases, well above the five-year average of 98. In Quebec, the majority of patients are between the ages of 10 and 14.

Meanwhile, New Brunswick has declared a whooping cough outbreak across the province. A total of 141 cases were reported by last month, exceeding the five-year average of 34.

The disease can lead to severe complications among vulnerable populations including infants, who are at the highest risk of suffering from complications like pneumonia and seizures. Symptoms may start with a runny nose, mild fever and cough, then progress to severe coughing accompanied by a distinctive “whooping” sound during inhalation.

“The public, especially pregnant people and those in close contact with infants, are encouraged to be aware of symptoms related to pertussis and to ensure vaccinations are up to date,” Newfoundland and Labrador’s Health Department said in a statement.

Whooping cough can be treated with antibiotics, but vaccination is the most effective way to control the spread of the disease. As a result, the province has expanded immunization efforts this school year. While booster doses are already offered in Grade 9, the vaccine is now being offered to Grade 8 students as well.

Public health officials say whooping cough is a cyclical disease that increases every two to five or six years.

Meanwhile, New Brunswick’s acting chief medical officer of health expects the current case count to get worse before tapering off.

A rise in whooping cough cases has also been reported in the United States and elsewhere. The Pan American Health Organization issued an alert in July encouraging countries to ramp up their surveillance and vaccination coverage.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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