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Gold & silver stocks still cheap – in real terms – Kitco NEWS

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Gold prices have risen and remain above previous nominal all-time-highs. Silver prices remain near seven-year highs. Related stocks are up, naturally, with many of the best hitting all-time-highs as well. This makes many investors and speculators reluctant to buy.

Understandably so; I too find myself reluctant to buy shares that look expensive.

It’s a mistake, however, to look at gold stock prices in nominal terms.

I recently wrote about the mistake of looking at gold in nominal terms. Here’s the key chart from that article, showing that gold and silver still have to rise much higher in order to reach all-time highs in real terms.

If it’s more realistic to look at gold in inflation-adjusted dollars, the same is true for gold and silver stocks.

Since the stocks derive their value from their underlying commodities, however, it’s better to look at gold stocks in terms of gold—not dollars.

In the same way some investors like to look at the Dow-gold ratio, I like to look at the major gold stock indices as a ratio to gold. Whether gold itself is up or down, I want to know if the stocks are cheap or dear, relative to gold.

Here’s how that looks now…

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The data clearly show that, priced in gold, gold stocks are starting to recover, but remain quite cheap.

Gold stocks priced in gold are roughly twice as cheap as they were during the 2011 peak.

It’s interesting to ask why this might be, though I’d be skeptical of anyone who claimed to be able to explain it all. Being the aggregation of actions decided by millions of minds, Mr. Market has very complex psychology.

In my view, the more important question is what to do.

I don’t want to chase stocks that have just hit all-time highs without adding any value on the ground.

But I do think gold and silver prices will go much higher, lighting a fire under these stocks.

Given their relative bargain status, I want to buy the best gold and silver stocks when I can do so at good prices.

Fortunately, markets fluctuate. Commodity prices do so with gusto. And gold and silver stocks with a vengeance.

This has brought the market to me on two great stocks I really wanted in my portfolio—so far this month.

This does not, however, mean that I’m going all in.

I’m building my cash position because I see good odds for a larger correction, possibly on the back of another market meltdown ahead. I’d love to have a shot at averaging down on my stocks—or to buy ones that got away from me earlier. Another meltdown could provide the last great buying opportunity before the final manic peak I still see ahead for gold and silver stocks.

But, as above, I also don’t want to be left behind, especially as I expect Q3 earnings to bring a lot more generalist attention to gold stocks. That could make them much less cheap, priced in gold, even if gold trades sideways for the rest of the year.

Hence my willingness to buy—when the market comes to me.

As long as I remain bullish on monetary metals, and I can find great speculations on relatively cheap stocks, that’s my take.

Sincerely,

P.S. To be kept abreast of more opportunities, dangers, and issues affecting investors, please sign up for our free, no-spam, weekly Speculator’s Digest.

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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