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Goldman Sachs Here's What's Behind Saudi's Shocking Decision To Cut 1 Million B – OilPrice.com

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The first monthly OPEC+ meeting to decide on the group’s production ended with an unexpected, in fact shocking two-month agreement:

  1. Saudi announced an unexpected and unilateral production cut of 1 mb/d in February and March,
  2. Russia and Kazakhstan will instead increase output modestly to meet seasonal needs while
  3. other producers will remain at their January levels.

Of the three, the Saudi decision to cut production by 1 million barrels came as a shock to the market, sending oil sharply higher.

What has behind it? As Goldman’s commodity strategist Damien Courvalin explains, despite this bullish supply agreement, Saudi’s decision “likely reflects signs of weakening demand as lockdowns return, with our updated 1Q21 balance actually weaker than previously.”

That said, Saudi’s action and the prospect for a tight market in 2Q21, as the rebound in demand stresses the ability to restart production, will likely support prices in coming weeks, leading Goldman to reiterate its bullish oil view. As a result, the bank continues to recommend a long Dec-21 Brent trade (currently trading at $52/bbl vs. its $65/bbl forecast) and expect sustained backwardation and lower implied volatility. Courvalin also notes that “fundamentals do matter, but we see the recent recovery in refining margins and product cracks as premature and the best way to express the expected weakness in near-term oil demand.”

Here are more details from the Goldman note:

The most significant decision was Saudi’s pre-emptive measure to reduce output in the face of renewed lockdowns with OPEC+ production now expected below our prior forecast by 1.45 mb/d in February and 1.85 mb/d in March. Saudi’s decision surprised as global demand beat expectations in December on shallower and shorter EU lockdowns and resilient jet demand. Further, by allowing Russia to increase production, Saudi undermined its efforts since April to have every producer implement similar cuts, with the Kingdom solely taking a fiscal hit. Finally, by lifting prices to their highest levels since last March, Saudis risk extending the ongoing recovery in shale production, as WTI spot prices now at $50/bbl can allow for higher activity and positive free cash flows (although such a response would likely take time to materialize with producers cautious of further OPEC surprises).

This, according to Courvalin, leaves a large expected slowdown in global oil demand as the most rational explanation for Saudi’s cut, likely signaled through its term contract to Asian consumers where infections are rising quickly (Korea, Japan, South-East Asia).

Meanwhile, Goldman’s high-frequency indicator of oil demand (or lack thereof) suggests that the return of more aggressive lockdowns is already weighing on demand, and the bank is reflecting these headwinds in its balance, taking down January and February oil demand to 92.5 mb/d from an upward revised December demand level of 93.5 mb/d.

Separately, and from a geopolitical perspective, the transition to a likely less supportive US administration may also have led Saudi to adopt a more supportive stance towards other Middle East producers, as illustrated in both today’s unilateral cut and restoration of ties with Qatar.

As a result of today’s announcement, Goldman’s updated Q1 2021 balance is weaker than previously although, with prospects for a tighter market in 2Q21 as the Saudi announcement hints. This new OPEC+ path and the bank’s demand downgrade lead the bank to forecast a 1Q21 0.25 mb/d surplus vs. a commensurate deficit previously (only half offset by a tighter December). Importantly, OPEC+ March production level will still be low just as global demand starts rebounding sharply driven by warmer weather and rising vaccinations. This points to the group potentially struggling to ramp-up output quickly enough, with estimates currently reflecting a 1.3 mb/d deficit in April-July despite OPEC+ increasing production by 4 mb/d, a historically tall order.

On net, Goldman believes today’s outcome will help support prices in the face of demand risks given Saudi’s commitment to balance the market, and the potential for Saudi to cut more – now that they have tipped their hand – than demand actually disappoints, risks of a tighter 2Q21 balance and a growing consensus bullish outlook for crude fundamentals later this year.

Finally, for those asking, Goldman’s own year-end Brent forecast of $65/bbl is well above market forwards and consensus expectations.

By Zerohedge.com

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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